Brad Johnson’s 10 Bold Predictions
My colleague Zach Sander kicked off bold prediction season today, which tells me it’s time to get on my high horse. Last year, I drew some fire for a lack of boldness (I disagreed then and in retrospect). Nevertheless, I will attempt to be bolder AND more accurate this season.
1. Carlos Carrasco will be a top five pitcher
If you follow my work, you knew this was coming. Last spring, I discussed Carrasco as an SP eligible reliever. During the season, I fell in love while watching his dirty stuff dismember opposing hitters. Then Eno and Daniel compiled Arsenal Score which justified my visual joy. That culminated in a top 10 ranking for Carrasco on my initial list.
The folks at RotoGraphs are among the most bullish about Carrasco, so I expect to see some more Carrasco-related predictions. I hope mine is the boldest. I did give myself some flexibility by not distinguishing between fantasy and the real world.
2. Mark Trumbo will lead the NL in home runs
Trumbo is a power hitter, one whom I’m now predicting to bash the most home runs in his league. I hedged at the last moment and replaced league with NL. He still has to beat Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, and teammate Paul Goldschmidt (among others).
I didn’t use any special calculus to arrive here. A healthy Trumbo has 40 home run upside at Chase Field. And 40 home runs can sometimes win a home run crown. I don’t even like Trumbo due to his iffy contact skills.
3. Jarrod Dyson Billy Burns will steal more bases than Carlos Gomez
Call it a two-pronged hunch. I think Dyson could start more often than in years past – especially if Rios continues to turn in mediocre offensive results. He’ll also see his share of late game, pinch running opportunities.
I predict a decline in base running from Gomez. We’re entering the stage in his career where I’m expecting to see his stolen base totals fall to around 20 per season.
If the A’s outfield remains banged up, Burns could spend a good chunk of the season on the roster. After struggling in the upper minors last season, he’s unlikely to fall into regular starts. If he does play, he should be used similarly to Dyson as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. His path to over 20 steals is tortured and unlikely. Bolder than my first pass, no?
4. Carter Capps and Dominic Leone will emerge as top non-closing relievers
The Marlins and Mariners should both possess potent bullpens. They have good, veteran closers who should hang onto their jobs if they stay healthy. They’re also deep – particularly the Mariners who have Danny Farquhar, Tom Wilhelmsen, and Yoervis Medina (among others).
Capps’ pitch peripherals are a blend of Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles. Leone threw five different pitches last season – all filthy. The cutter and slider were particularly good. A step forward from both will have them in the same echelon as Wade Davis. Progression is a dangerous assumption…unless you’re making bold predictions.
5. Zach McAllister will be this season’s Davis
Speaking of Davis, let’s predict the former mediocre starting pitcher who will become one of the best relievers in baseball. In a brief relief stint, McAllister pumped 97 mph heat with a good breaking ball. Davis has a different approach than McAllister, so it won’t be a mirror image. But if McAllister lands in the bullpen, I expect him to be working the late innings by midseason.
If Cody Allen lands on the disabled list, I want to see McAllister locking down saves.
6. Aramis Ramirez will hit 25 home runs and decide to continue playing
Ramirez has announced his intention to retire, but I’m doubling down on the boldness. Not only will the 36-year-old bounceback to his career standards, he’ll also decide to stick around for another season.
In all likelihood, Ramirez is contemplating an early retirement because he can’t keep his body healthy. That’s an ominous statement when juxtaposed with a 25 home run projection…
7. Yasmany Tomas spends half of 2015 in the minors or hurt
It’s time for a negative prediction, and there’s no player I’m more negative about than Tomas. He has raw power, but that’s it. We know he can’t field, but there’s a pretty decent chance he can’t hit either. I see the upside as Russell Branyan. You probably remember the few good years of Branyan, but he spent most of his career in the minors or on the bench.
The Diamondbacks will resist demoting Tomas until they have no other option. As an undergraduate trained economist, I’d like to point out that a sunk cost is…sunk.
8. Odubel Herrera will reach 400 plate appearances and steal at least 20 bases
It’s rare for a Rule 5 pick to contribute in his first season. Herrera is lucky in that he has a ready-made opportunity. The Phillies are liable to trade Ben Revere at some point. Domonic Brown is one or two bad months from being cut. Grady Sizemore is hardly an impediment to playing time.
There is a regular role available to Herrera, but he has to seize it before the Phillies roster other players like Jeff Francoeur (in camp as an NRI) or add external talent. If he does play, the stolen bases should follow.
9. Brad Boxberger will save at least 35 games
This prediction has three elements. Boxberger has to earn the temporary ninth inning gig while Jake McGee is on the disabled list. Then he has to pitch so well that the Rays decide to leave him as the closer. Boxberger had some trouble with the gopher ball last year, so the second component might be a stretch. He’s much more likely to accomplish this feat if McGee has trouble returning to action.
Lastly, only 13 pitchers saved 35 or more games last year. Not only does Boxberger need to acquire and retain the job, he also has to find 40 or more save opportunities. Plenty of full time closers never have the opportunity to pass 35 saves.
10. Clayton Kershaw has his worst season since his 2008 debut
Why? Because somebody has to be a wet blanket. I intend to grade this pretty lenientl, and I’ll probably still be wrong. Besides his debut season, a 2.91 ERA is his highest yearly mark. If he exceeds that, I’m calling this a victory. His lowest WAR is 4.1. If he finishes with less, I count this as a win.*
Really, I’m just betting on the roughly 30 percent chance any pitcher has of landing on the disabled list. And I’m also betting it’s not a short stint. We’ve already seen that he can win awards with a seven start handicap.
*if he’s within a couple decimal points, I’ll perform some additional analysis
Bonus. Jose Ramirez will remain a starter for the entire season
Every media outlet says Francisco Lindor will supplant Ramirez. I don’t buy it. Why would any team kick a three to four win player to the bench? He’ll play somewhere, regardless of Lindor’s timetable.
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Kendall Graveman will receive Cy Young and ROY votes. That cutter is just devastating.
I feel like your bonus prediction is bolder than a few of your predictions that count.
Very interested by your McAllister prediction. Just curious, you say pumped 97, I see on his player page 93. If he’s really 97, I am very very interested. Where is that info coming from?
Check his relief velo on Brooks. You have to filter down on the games he relieved.
Nice. Thanks.
“I don’t even like Trumbo due to his iffy contact skills” seems like an odd thing to close with when you are predicting him to lead the NL in homers.
hence the label “bold predictions”
Predicting Miguel Cabrera and his good contact skills to lead the league in homers wouldn’t be very bold
Pedro Alvarez has laughable contact skills and led the NL in HR in 2013. It can happen.
Telling us you don’t like someone while simultaneously predicting they will hit 40ish bombs and lead the NL just seems a bit contradictory to me. Apparently I’m in the minority though.
It is contradictory isn’t it. But logical consistency is not a necessary element of bold predictions. Also, I didn’t say I dislike him as a fantasy asset. I dislike him as a real world player. He’s a right-handed, poor man’s Ryan Howard.
Carrasco = Salazar for 2014
Carrasco could definitely disappoint in 2015, but I don’t like that comparison. Salazar is a two pitch pitcher who has trouble controlling his nasty changeup and often times becomes to predictable with the fastball.
Carrasco on the other hand throws 4 pitches, all of which have shown above average to plus potential. If he fails, it will be because a lack of command, but he certainly has more going for him than Salazar did at this time last year.
Just wanted to thank rotographs for ranking Salazar so high last year. I also liked his stuff and thought he would be good. However you drove his price so high I only got him in one league. Thanks
#3 is nowhere near a bold prediction given that Dyson just did this in 2014 with 36 SB’s in 290 PA’s vs. 34 for Gomez over 644.
Bold would be that Dyson finishes in the the top 3 for SB’s. That would require him to beat out Altuve, Hamilton or Gordon and would likely only come with more playing time. Not likely, but isn’t that what Bold projections are all about.
I won’t make 10 projections but put me on the board for this one.
Hmm, this one does need adjustment. I guess I was working with a leaderboard of only qualified hitters. I just saw Gomez up there and decided to plop a non-starter ahead of him. I’ll pick somebody other than Dyson maybe.
Like the revision – definitely a bolder prediction. I wasn’t sure if the first one was a comment on the upside of Dyson or the downside of Gomez to maintain his SB’s.
Tomas passes the eye test for me, in terms of hitting at least. I think the hate is coming on a little strong. Kind of like the complaints last year of Abreu having a “hitch” in his swing.
I loved Abreu’s swing once I saw it in game action. Can’t say the same of Tomas. I trust myself, and I trust Dan Farnsworth who helped identify similarities with Dayan Viciedo. If he even manages 1 WAR, I’ll be shocked. Granted, that’s going to take a LOT of hitting to achieve.
Ya the reports on Tomas have not been good at all. Had to figure the market would find a player to force a correction, Tomas might be that guy.
Replacing “league” with “NL” isn’t hedging, unless you actually changed “MLB” to “NL”
If I say “Player will lead the league” it’s to be interpreted as all of baseball. If I say “Player will lead his league” then I’m talking about a specific one.
League is not used in a standardized way by sportswriters. Some people mean MLB when they say it and some people mean AL/NL.
It’s really hilarious how many RotoGraphs writers are predicting Boxy to steal the 9th inning gig from Mcgee. Pretty much zero chance it’ll happen. Any intimation otherwise demonstrates a dearth of understanding of how the Rays’ FO handles service time and arbitration salaries. Basically your bold prediction is that they’ll sign him to a multiyear deal (for a pre-arb reliever? laughable) because cost certainty is the only way they’d insert him at closer.
McGee isn’t arb eligible until next year either, so, they’re gonna be paying one of the two either way…
I have read about the FO philosophy of the Rays from many different outlets and they seem to agree that Boxberger will be held out of the closers role, but didn’t the FO change? Honest question…with Friedman gone, will they be using the same philosophy?
Expect it to be similar but not identical.
I don’t see the arb eligibility affecting things much. If they want to keep both players, it probably has almost no effect as to which is the closer. If they want to trade one, then it makes more sense to use McGee in the role for now.
Besides, there’s still a backdoor available for the prediction, McGee isn’t guaranteed to return to health.
I agree with #1, but would say top 10-15. That said, you criminally undervalue pitching.
Spa City’s 10 Bold Predictions:
1. Corey Kluber has another great year, but is the third most valuable pitcher on Cleveland’s staff after Carrasco and Salazar.
2. Steven Souza posts a 20/20 year with a BB% over 9% and a SLG over .450, emerging as a top 12 OFer.
3. Kennys Vargas tops 25 HR, but still manages less than 2 WAR due to his love of striking out and lack of defensive value.
4. Mookie Betts leads the Red Sox in WAR and solidifies his status as a top 12 OFer.
5. Kang Jung Ho fills a Zobristian role with the Bucs and hits more than 20 HR in what amounts to a starting role (divided among 2B, 3B and SS).
6. Zobrist plays 2B daily and does NOT fill a Zobristian role, failing to qualify at other positions in 2016 and severely reducing his OttoNeu value.
7. Javier Baez posts a 20/20 season, but still manages less than 2 WAR due to his intense love of striking out and moderate defensive value.
8. Wilmer Flores is a top 10 SS, based on his high ISO and low SwStr%; he will hit 20 HR and show improved patience with a .330 OBP.
9. Gerrit Cole strikes out more than a batter per inning, walks fewer than 2.5 per 9IP, and contends for the Cy Young award (based in part on his pitcher-friendly ballpark and defense).
10. Shawn Kelley and Yusmeiro Petit emerge as the 2015 versions (albeit older) of Wade Davis and Dellin Betances.