Brad Johnson’s 10 Bold Predictions

My colleague Zach Sander kicked off bold prediction season today, which tells me it’s time to get on my high horse. Last year, I drew some fire for a lack of boldness (I disagreed then and in retrospect). Nevertheless, I will attempt to be bolder AND more accurate this season.

1. Carlos Carrasco will be a top five pitcher

If you follow my work, you knew this was coming. Last spring, I discussed Carrasco as an SP eligible reliever. During the season, I fell in love while watching his dirty stuff dismember opposing hitters. Then Eno and Daniel compiled Arsenal Score which justified my visual joy. That culminated in a top 10 ranking for Carrasco on my initial list.

The folks at RotoGraphs are among the most bullish about Carrasco, so I expect to see some more Carrasco-related predictions. I hope mine is the boldest. I did give myself some flexibility by not distinguishing between fantasy and the real world.

2. Mark Trumbo will lead the NL in home runs

Trumbo is a power hitter, one whom I’m now predicting to bash the most home runs in his league. I hedged at the last moment and replaced league with NL. He still has to beat Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, and teammate Paul Goldschmidt (among others).

I didn’t use any special calculus to arrive here. A healthy Trumbo has 40 home run upside at Chase Field. And 40 home runs can sometimes win a home run crown. I don’t even like Trumbo due to his iffy contact skills.

3. Jarrod Dyson Billy Burns will steal more bases than Carlos Gomez

Call it a two-pronged hunch. I think Dyson could start more often than in years past – especially if Rios continues to turn in mediocre offensive results. He’ll also see his share of late game, pinch running opportunities.

I predict a decline in base running from Gomez. We’re entering the stage in his career where I’m expecting to see his stolen base totals fall to around 20 per season.

If the A’s outfield remains banged up, Burns could spend a good chunk of the season on the roster. After struggling in the upper minors last season, he’s unlikely to fall into regular starts. If he does play, he should be used similarly to Dyson as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. His path to over 20 steals is tortured and unlikely. Bolder than my first pass, no?

4. Carter Capps and Dominic Leone will emerge as top non-closing relievers

The Marlins and Mariners should both possess potent bullpens. They have good, veteran closers who should hang onto their jobs if they stay healthy. They’re also deep – particularly the Mariners who have Danny Farquhar, Tom Wilhelmsen, and Yoervis Medina (among others).

Capps’ pitch peripherals are a blend of Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles. Leone threw five different pitches last season – all filthy. The cutter and slider were particularly good. A step forward from both will have them in the same echelon as Wade Davis. Progression is a dangerous assumption…unless you’re making bold predictions.

5. Zach McAllister will be this season’s Davis

Speaking of Davis, let’s predict the former mediocre starting pitcher who will become one of the best relievers in baseball. In a brief relief stint, McAllister pumped 97 mph heat with a good breaking ball. Davis has a different approach than McAllister, so it won’t be a mirror image. But if McAllister lands in the bullpen, I expect him to be working the late innings by midseason.

If Cody Allen lands on the disabled list, I want to see McAllister locking down saves.

6. Aramis Ramirez will hit 25 home runs and decide to continue playing

Ramirez has announced his intention to retire, but I’m doubling down on the boldness. Not only will the 36-year-old bounceback to his career standards, he’ll also decide to stick around for another season.

In all likelihood, Ramirez is contemplating an early retirement because he can’t keep his body healthy. That’s an ominous statement when juxtaposed with a 25 home run projection…

7. Yasmany Tomas spends half of 2015 in the minors or hurt

It’s time for a negative prediction, and there’s no player I’m more negative about than Tomas. He has raw power, but that’s it. We know he can’t field, but there’s a pretty decent chance he can’t hit either. I see the upside as Russell Branyan. You probably remember the few good years of Branyan, but he spent most of his career in the minors or on the bench.

The Diamondbacks will resist demoting Tomas until they have no other option. As an undergraduate trained economist, I’d like to point out that a sunk cost is…sunk.

8. Odubel Herrera will reach 400 plate appearances and steal at least 20 bases

It’s rare for a Rule 5 pick to contribute in his first season. Herrera is lucky in that he has a ready-made opportunity. The Phillies are liable to trade Ben Revere at some point. Domonic Brown is one or two bad months from being cut. Grady Sizemore is hardly an impediment to playing time.

There is a regular role available to Herrera, but he has to seize it before the Phillies roster other players like Jeff Francoeur (in camp as an NRI) or add external talent. If he does play, the stolen bases should follow.

9. Brad Boxberger will save at least 35 games

This prediction has three elements. Boxberger has to earn the temporary ninth inning gig while Jake McGee is on the disabled list. Then he has to pitch so well that the Rays decide to leave him as the closer. Boxberger had some trouble with the gopher ball last year, so the second component might be a stretch. He’s much more likely to accomplish this feat if McGee has trouble returning to action.

Lastly, only 13 pitchers saved 35 or more games last year. Not only does Boxberger need to acquire and retain the job, he also has to find 40 or more save opportunities. Plenty of full time closers never have the opportunity to pass 35 saves.

10. Clayton Kershaw has his worst season since his 2008 debut

Why? Because somebody has to be a wet blanket. I intend to grade this pretty lenientl, and I’ll probably still be wrong. Besides his debut season, a 2.91 ERA is his highest yearly mark. If he exceeds that, I’m calling this a victory. His lowest WAR is 4.1. If he finishes with less, I count this as a win.*

Really, I’m just betting on the roughly 30 percent chance any pitcher has of landing on the disabled list. And I’m also betting it’s not a short stint. We’ve already seen that he can win awards with a seven start handicap.

*if he’s within a couple decimal points, I’ll perform some additional analysis

Bonus. Jose Ramirez will remain a starter for the entire season

Every media outlet says Francisco Lindor will supplant Ramirez. I don’t buy it. Why would any team kick a three to four win player to the bench? He’ll play somewhere, regardless of Lindor’s timetable.