The lone benefit of not writing here at Rotographs last season was that it was impossible for me to get a single bold prediction wrong. That won’t be the case this time around, as my track record – and, let’s be honest, everyone’s – is more than a little shaky.

But a high contact rate isn’t the aim here. We can’t have a bold bold mouth talking not so bold. These predictions are about swinging for the fences, and that’s what I’ll aim to do, often whiffing wildly in the hopes of connecting on two or three 450-footers. So let’s stop the acting like we’re bold and get it cracking at a show.

Sadly, I won’t be recommending Sergio Santos this season, something I laughably did in 2013 and 2014.
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1. Tyler Duffey is the Twins best starter

I was a bit late to the party on Duffey as I had not heard much about him until reading a Keith Law chat last year in which a Twins fan asked why he has improved so much in the minors. The details Keith gave caused me to look deeper into Duffey and I came away with confidence that he can perform in the upper levels and in the majors. Last year he was great in double-A, triple-A, and in the majors and has a quality most Twin starters lack – strikeout potential. To say I am bullish on Duffey would be an understatement.
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I’m the Jose Molina of Bold Predictions. Sure, I can’t hit my weight, but you can still read about me on FanGraphs.
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I am a huge San Francisco Giants fan. However, if you have followed my work prior to joining Rotographs, you know I hate Gregor Blanco. I will explain further. Read the rest of this entry »

These predictions are specifically based on Ottoneu FGpt scoring. Perhaps “Bold” isn’t defined clearly enough, but my hope is that this is structured in such a way that my thought process can provide some benefit (even if the predictions seem a little extreme at face value.)

1. Domingo Santana will be a top 15 OF.

Nelson Cruz, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Starling Marte, Adam Jones…  If you looked at our FGpt OF rankings, these are the 15-20^th ranked outfielders. Which is to say, I think Domingo Santana could be better than all of them (and the rest of those listed below him in our rankings) in 2016. The Brewers do not look like a good team (yet…) so – unless he gets injured – expect a full slate of playing time, a great home park, and lots of power (three things that are gold in linear weights scoring.) The obvious hole in his game is the strikeouts (34% in 2015), but if he can reign that in at all, the upside is tremendous.

2. John Jaso will be a viable 2nd OF

The obvious issue has been playing time (70, 99, 70 games played over the past 3 seasons), but given that he slated to play 1B, I feel fairly confident he will play more games than he has in any of the past 3 seasons.  If he does, he could easily produce value which is expected of many #2 OF in FGpts. The Pirates’ outfield is set, so don’t expect him to retain eligibility for 2017, but he should be incredibly useful for this season. Alex Gordon, Starling Marte, Adam Jones, Christian Yelich, Charlie Blackmon, and Yoenis Cespedes are all projected to be within 5 points of wOBA of Jaso. Those players will cost $18-$25 apiece. If he can stay on the field, Jaso has a good chance to be in that tier, and you can get him for about a third of that price.

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I’ve been batting over .300 on bold predictions for a while, and I’ve also been getting crap for not being bold enough. So, in the honor of So So Def, I’ll stop slacking on my pimping, and I’ll turn it up.

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Despite no longer truly being a part of the RotoGraphs family, Eno Sarris was kind foolish enough to allow me a guest spot among these lovely digital pages. That’s right folks, brought back by no-so-popular-demand, here are my 10 Bold Predictions for the 2016 Season! After posting dismal results in both 2013 and 2014, I came to life and nailed four of my 10 picks last year. Buckle up, because here comes the fun!

1. Jake Arrieta finishes the season outside the top-15 for SPs in 5×5
This isn’t a knock on Arrieta so much as it is a compliment to the other top arms. I think most would agree Kershaw is the clear No. 1, followed in some order by Sale, Scherzer, Arrieta, Mad-Bum, Greinke, Price, Cole, Harvey, deGrom, Kluber and Strasburg. After Kershaw, that is 11 excellent hurlers, and I didn’t even get to Thor, Archer, Carrasco, Felix, Cueto et al. I don’t see Arrieta repeating his historic second half, particularly the .205 BABIP and 88.2 percent LOB%. The defense behind him did get better with Addison Russell taking over shortstop duties from Starlin Castro in early August, yet that wouldn’t explain all of the BABIP difference, let alone Arrieta’s 0.17 HR/9 in the second half. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Arrieta in the 11-15 range come the end of the season, but he’s being drafted as the third or fourth best pitcher, in my opinion largely on the back of numbers no human could repeat. He still has a great swinging strike and K rates, however the top of the SP pyramid is awfully crowded. Of course, when the Cubs offense helps power him to 25 wins, feel free to make fun of this pick. Read the rest of this entry »

Fantastic news folks, it’s Bold Prediction season. The premise is simple – we make 10 aggressive, fantasy-related predictions about specific players. Then, in the comments, you tell us they aren’t bold enough. Shall we?

1. Socrates Brito will be a top 60 outfielder

I was ready to go all in on Aaron Altherr this season, but he broke his wrist. Luckily (for me), Brito has been turning heads in the Diamondbacks camp. He has the tough job of beating out big money Cuban Yasmany Tomas, but I have little doubt Brito is the better overall talent. The potential for plus-plus defense, above average base running, and a league average bat easily exceeds Tomas at his best.

While Brito isn’t a finished product at the plate, I’m predicting a decent batting average to go with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases. I see him as a poor man’s Christian Yelich.

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I had a weird experience with my bold predictions. A majority of my predictions were close to right. However, I ultimately fell way short of my goal to hit .400. Let’s get to it.

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Because I hate myself to the core, this is one of my favorite articles to write every season. I really do enjoy writing the 10 Bold Predictions too — I’m just terrible at it — and so I also like the opportunity to harshly criticize myself when the season draws to a close.

Let’s have a look at the hot takes that I laid out some six-and-a-half months ago.

1. Kyle Gibson is no worse than the second-most valuable Twins starter in fantasy this year.
Success! Gibson took a nice step forward this year, toying with a league average strikeout rate while maintaining a strong groundball rate. He wasn’t necessarily better on the whole from a value standpoint, but he did take steps to improve his peripherals and he got some help along the way. Ervin Santana got suspended, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco got hurt and nobody really stepped up the challenge Gibson for this crown. Tyler Duffey might have with a longer sample size and so too might have Jose Berrios, but that is neither here nor there. (1/1) Read the rest of this entry »