Tom Oltarzewski’s Ottoneu Bold Predictions

As with Joe’s earlier post, these ottoneu predictions specifically reference the FGPts scoring system. Let’s get down to it!

1) No catcher will score 800 points, and two or fewer will score over 600 points.

At face value, this one might not seem so bold, but keep in mind that at least one catcher has scored over 800 points each of the past few seasons, and several over 600. The position is always on the verge of falling under these thresholds, though, and this prediction is a bet that this could be the year. Perhaps Buster Posey underperforms a bit, Jonathan Lucroy doesn’t play such a heavy schedule of games, and some of the middle-tier options split playing time more than expected. We’ve talked before about how catching is a deep but very flat position in ottoneu, and this would be further proof of the fungibility of a position where a dozen players can all give you similar production.

2) Zack Cozart will be a top 10 shortstop in FGPts.

If Cozart keeps up his 50 game breakout, he could make this happen, no problem. But that’s a huge “if,” considering he nearly doubled his career ISO, and jumped 70 points in wOBA from 2014. Here’s hoping Cozart’s short-lived mission to “crush the inside part of the ball” pays dividends in 2016!

3) Miguel Cabrera will finish the season as both the number one 1B and 3B.

Boldly betting on both a Cabrera bounceback, and on the Tigers’ willingness to make a terrible choice and play him at 3B. It sounds like he’ll get two starts there to begin the season, so would it really be that crazy that he picks up three more in interleague play somewhere along the line? I think Cabrera would handily become the best 3B in ottoneu if he picked up eligibility, which is why I’ve doubled down on this prediction – he also has to beat out the likes of Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt to become the top scoring 1B.

4) Clayton Kershaw will not be the number one pitcher by total points.

But not because of a long term injury. Banish that thought from your mind and let’s never speak of it again. One theme of my predictions though, is that ottoneu is inherently unpredictable, even for the most reliable players (just like real baseball!). Kershaw is the odds-on favorite to be the top scoring pitcher in a format that strongly rewards the most elite real-life players, but it only takes one challenger to knock him out of that top spot, so it’s not crazy to imagine a scenario where this could happen.

5) R.A. Dickey, on the other hand, will return to ottoneu relevance.

For the purposes of this prediction, let’s definite “relevance” as performing above replacement level, so Dickey would have to perform as one of the top 80 starting pitchers (I generally set my replacement level bar at the 84th best starter). It’s been a tough couple years for Dickey since his 5.17 P/IP performance for the Mets in 2012, but pitchers are unpredictable, and none moreso than a knuckleballer. Maybe he recaptures some of that old spark and becomes a viable ottoneu starter once more!

6) None of Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, or Dellin Betances will be a top 12 RP…

…despite all three of them finishing in the top 12 in 2015. Like my prediction for catchers, it’s quite easy to see how any one of these three might fall out of the top 12. But the kicker is that it has to be all three for this to come true. How could it happen? Well, Chapman’s suspension could pull him out of the running even if he again posts excellent rate stats, while Miller could see his value drop back into the “great setup guy” range now that he won’t get a full season of save opportunities. And Betances could suffer equally from being bumped down the chain – excellent performance is always nice, but if he gets more opportunities for wins, and fewer for holds or saves, he could complete this trifecta.

7) Due to a wide and unpredictable split of playing time, Ryan Braun will be the only Brewers outfielder who cracks the top 30 outfielders in total points.

Are you sensing a theme here? I’ve often felt like some ottoneu owners are too confident about unproven players, and this is a perfect example. Sure, Domingo Santana, Rymer Liriano, Brett Phillips and even Kirk Nieuwenhuis all have talent, and one of them could become this season’s breakout sensation. But FiveThiryEight readers and political junkies know that anything can happen in a race with many competitors, and it’s easy to see a situation where competition and lack of clarity prevent any of that group from becoming a top 30 outfielder, which is roughly where I’d draw a distinction between surefire starters and the lower half of the position, where you find the weaker full time starters, scrubs, and platoon players. In fact, any one of these players might be a great part time option, but there’s something to be said for a player who you can lock in on a daily basis, and if this prediction comes true, you won’t be doing that with any outfielder besides the veteran Braun.

8) No Padres hitter cracks the top 12 at their position (top 30 for outfielders).

Maybe this one is a little safe, but someone on that team is likely to step up? Right? RIGHT???

Ok, this lineup is bad enough to make my bold prediction look easy, so I’ll throw in a second part. Drew Pomeranz will also be the second most valuable Padre in ottoneu, after Tyson Ross. Let’s move on before I fall into a deep depression contemplating such a bad offense.

9) Not one, not two, but three teams will break the all-time total points record in ottoneu FGPts.

Last year, Greg Wellemeyer set a new record for points in a season, with 20,530 in league 52. With the advent of the Slack community where owners share strategies and ideas, as well as increased coverage here and on the Ottographs podcast, I think it’s safe to guess that owners will continue to get better and field even stronger teams. But we’re not looking for safe predictions, we’re looking for bold, so I’m predicting a leap forward in ottoneu evolution, as owners take advantage of the new wave of information and collaboration available to us.

10) None of Tom, Trey, or Joe will win a championship this year … but Justin will.

Ottoneu is hard, even for those of us who have played a long time! In keeping with my other predictions, this one recognizes that anything can happen, even to three veteran owners who each have one or more strong contenders among their teams this year. That’s one reason we often recommend pushing hard for a win when you have the chance, because it might be the last one you have for a while. Justin, on the other hand, plays in as many leagues as all of us combined! There’s safety in those kind of numbers, so I’m going to take the “field” and predict that Justin pulls off a win in at least one of those leagues!

11) Bonus prediction: Barry Bonds will be a top 24 1B/Util option on a rate basis, due to his still-potent home run power, but he won’t get the playing time to prove it.

If only the Marlins had a DH spot for him to make a comeback!