Blake Murphy’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2016

The lone benefit of not writing here at Rotographs last season was that it was impossible for me to get a single bold prediction wrong. That won’t be the case this time around, as my track record – and, let’s be honest, everyone’s – is more than a little shaky.

But a high contact rate isn’t the aim here. We can’t have a bold bold mouth talking not so bold. These predictions are about swinging for the fences, and that’s what I’ll aim to do, often whiffing wildly in the hopes of connecting on two or three 450-footers. So let’s stop the acting like we’re bold and get it cracking at a show.

Sadly, I won’t be recommending Sergio Santos this season, something I laughably did in 2013 and 2014.

1. Trevor Bauer puts it together
Someone is going to keep making this prediction until eventually, someone is right. Given how much Bauer studies his craft, how intent he seems on improving, and how much raw talent he has, I have trouble believing progress won’t come. Control is obviously the major factor for the 25-year-old – two walks over nine spring innings offers some tepid encouragement – and it’s something he’s never figured out at any level, so expecting him to now is a bit of a leap of faith. Luckily, that leap isn’t going to cost you much. I’m predicting Bauer lands inside the top-50 starters, and you can make that bet outside of the top-75 at the position and outside of the top-250 overall right now.

2. Stephen Piscotty is a top-30 OF
Being drafted outside the top-50 at the position, Piscotty will be a must-start in all formats by season’s end. The 25-year-old is coming off of a .305/.359/.494 rookie season, and grading in the 90th percentile for average batted ball distance, even in a smaller sample, suggests the power gains are real. As Mike Podhorzer points out, his xHR/FB rate was far higher than his actual 11.7-percent mark. There are conflicting conclusions that can be drawn from his rookie year, but I’m betting on a surge to 20 home runs, a batting average that sticks around .275, and plenty of runs atop the Cardinals’ order.

3. Tyler Goeddel runs with Phillies’ RF job, finishes inside top-60 OF
The injury to Aaron Altherr opened up the right field job in Philadelphia, and the 23-year-old Rule 5 selection seems a safe bet to carve out at least some of that playing time. He’d be the short side of the platoon if he shares the gig with David Lough, but Lough’s never been much more than average and doesn’t have the benefit of youth on his side. Goeddel taking off with the job would be preferable for fantasy owners, as he took strides as a potential multi-category asset in Double-A last season, hitting 12 home runs with 28 stolen bases. Any player with a power-speed combo and a path to plate appearances is intriguing, and Goeddel has those.

4. Roberto Osuna gets single-digit saves but remains fantasy relevant
Picking Drew Storen to earn more saves than Osuna is hardly bold, as context clues have begun to suggest the veteran will take over the closer’s mantle to start 2016. That’s not a knock on Osuna, who posted a 2.58 ERA and 3.02 FIP as a 20-year-old last year, world’s beyond what Toronto could have reasonably expected. But Storen’s pretty great in his own right, and leaving Storen as the traditional closer would allow manager John Gibbons to achieve two ends: Using Osuna in high-leverage situations earlier in games, and pitching him a ton of innings by reliever standards to keep the youngster stretched out in the event the organization eventually decides to transition him back to starting. If Osuna assumes a bit of a Dellin Betances role, throwing 85-90 innings with a low-3.00s ERA and more than a strikeout per-nine, that’s an ownable asset.

5. Ryan Braun is not a top-25 outfielder
This one hurts a little bit, because there was a time when I would have worn my ugly white Braun jersey on draft day and confidently taken him in the first round. And I know he had a major bounce-back in 2015 following a season lost mostly to suspension and then a middling 2014. Unfortunately, I think he’ll settle back close to 2014 levels in his age-32 season. He’s coming off back surgery, probably needs to be projected for fewer than 150 games, and I’m skeptical time and wear-and-tear together won’t conspire to limit him. He was the No. 10 outfielder a season ago and is going off boards inside the top-15 at the position. That feels too high given how worried about him I’d be as an owner.

6. Marcell Ozuna benefits most from the adjustments at Marlins Ballpark, hitting 30 home runs
If Ozuna doesn’t put it together this season, he’s probably not long for Miami. Luckily for him and the Marlins, he will. With a declining strikeout rate and serious power to the non-pull parts of the park, the 25-year-old has shown positive signs of development, even if 2015 was mostly a disaster on the whole. He didn’t hit the ball nearly as far as you’d hope – 173.5 feet overall, 282.6 feet on fly balls – to simply say “oh, the shorter fences will be a boon,” but that, combined with the other underlying power indicators, leave room for optimism. Going outside the top 50 at the position, and often the top 60, he’s one of the better late power-ceiling plays on the board.

7A. The Orioles threaten the record for three true outcomes…
The 2013 Houston Astros struck out 25.5 percent of the time. The 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks struck out a little less but also walked a ton and hit 180 home runs. Last year’s Chicago Cubs fell somewhere in between. That D-Backs team holds an MLB record by producing one of the three true outcomes in 37.11 percent of their plate appearances as a team, and Baltimore is going to try to best that mark in 2016. That’s a huge undertaking, and Steamer projects the Orioles for “only” 32.3 percent true outcomes (29th all time), but with Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, Jimmy Paredes, Jonathan Schoop, Nolan Reimold, Ryan Flaherty, and Matt Wieters (maybe) all seeing ample time, the Orioles are going to strike out a ton and hit plenty of home runs. This might be overselling their ability to take a walk some, though.

7B. …But it’s worth it for Jonathan Schoop’s top-10 season at second base
The Orioles have sent a clear signal with their offseason that they’re not sweating strikeouts. Yes, it would be nice if Schoop took more walks in 2016 than you do, hardly a certainty, but the power here is going to be worth shrugging off contact and discipline issues. Schoop not only brings home runs – 15 in 321 plate appearances last year and 32 in 817 in the majors – but also underperformed his expected batting average on ground balls, and all told, his batted balls lend hope he can be post a decent BABIP to avoid killing your average despite the whiffs. Tread lightly in OBP leagues, but in standard formats, a guy with 25-plus home run power at the keystone should be going before No. 18.

8. Tom Murphy somehow makes Paul Sporer look smarter than he already is
I originally had Brett Lawrie hitting 20 home runs in this spot but I just can’t. I think he’ll do it, but I don’t really want to root for it unless he’s gonna Stone Cold cans of Red Bull at home plate. Instead, we go with Murphy, a backstop who will turn 25 just before the season starts and who will back up Nick Hundley to begin the year. I don’t think that will be the case all season – Murphy has a LOT of power, hitting 53 home runs over 1,190 minor league plate appearances and smacking three in just 11 games last season, and that’s going to play nicely at Coors Field. Hundley, well, he’s fine, maybe more than fine, but he’s 32 and hasn’t been consistently good during his career, never putting together back-to-back solid campaigns. If Hundley suffers an injury or hits the trade block, Murphy is going to make the most of the opportunity. I can’t put a number on this, really, because who knows when that may be, but Murphy’s on my bench in a deeper NL-only league, and I think he’s going to be on a lot of rosters by the end of the year.

9. Silvino Bracho becomes the Diamondbacks’ closer
There are a lot of trendy closer picks this year, and the easy jokes make Hansel Robles hard to pass up, but I’m enamored with Bracho. Slowed by a groin injury in spring training, the righty may not even crack the Diamondbacks bullpen to start the year, and there are solid names like Brad Ziegler, Tyler Clippard, and Daniel Hudson ahead of him. The title says bold, though, and I’m wondering if I haven’t been bold enough so far. The 23-year-old relies primarily on a 93 MPH fastball that’s bordering on a cutter, and a plodding slider with a show-me change, and together they allowed him to induce a 15.4-percent swinging-strike rate in 12.1 innings last year. He’s never posted a strikeout rate lower than 27.6 percent at any level of the minors and doesn’t have much history walking batters. Whether by injury or ineffectiveness ahead of him, or by sheer force of success, here’s guessing Bracho’s on rosters and performing by year’s end.

10. Trea Turner steals 25 bases
I covered some of the reasoning earlier this week, and I’m a strong believer in Turner’s long-term potential, whether at second or at short. I know he’s blocked right now, but the organization has spoken very highly of him in spring, and while there’s maybe not more than 10 home runs in his bat, I think his minor league base-running numbers actually undersell his stolen base potential. Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew are Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew, and Turner’s going to get the nod sooner rather than later, providing cheap steals at two positions.