Rylan Edwards’ 10 Bold Predictions

Barry Bonds leads the Marlins in home runs. OK, so this won’t happen but you so know he could.

1. Aaron Hicks finishes as a top 24 outfielder

I made my fondness of Hicks pretty apparent in a previous piece on the Yankees’ playing time battles. In limited plate appearances last season, Hicks kept some pretty impressive company combining speed, power, and plate discipline. In fact, over 600 plate appearances, his numbers pro-rated to a 17/20 season. Moving from Target Field to Yankee Stadium, a 20/20 season seems plausible.

For Hicks, it comes down to two things: playing time and improvement versus righties. Given that Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran are the walking embodiments of a week old French loaf, the boldness in this prediction comes from betting on gains against righties. If he can do it, watch out.

Continuing with the Yankees…

2. The three most valuable position players on the Yankees at year’s end will all start the year as backups or minor leaguers

Of course for this prediction to come true, it hinges on the first. Perhaps it’s unwise to compound predictions. Perhaps I should diversify. Perhaps I’m just really excited for a Yankees youth movement. And no, I’m not a Yankees fan, apparently just an enthusiastic observer.

So obviously, I’m talking about the aforementioned Hicks. The other two missing pieces to the Morris Avenue Miracle are Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. We saw what Bird was capable of last season when his number was called and ZiPS’ confidence in him bodes well.

Sanchez is the real stretch here but given his advanced approach at the plate and that he held his own as a 22 year old catcher in AAA, it’s not out of the realm possibility that given an opportunity, he provides above average production at a premium position. Now Top 3 on the Yankees? Look, this ain’t 2009 but this team still scored the second most runs in the AL last season. A lot has to go right for this to happen.

So, let’s say the Yankees lose Mark Teixeira for a prolonged period because, I don’t know, he hurts his wrist or he falls into a coma after watching one of his post-game interviews. Brian McCann strains a back muscle yelling at someone flipping a bat. Meanwhile, Hicks has already carved out a spot in the lineup spelling Ellsbury or Beltran and the offense teems with the Yankees’ future realized a couple years early. It could happen.

I suppose if you’re being litigious, you could argue that a breakout year by Dustin Ackley could place him in the top 3, making this prediction come true. And to that I say fine. Except that would never happen because everyone knows that the dividing line between a bold prediction and a crazy one is Dustin Ackley.

3. Chris Bassit finishes the year as the best starting pitcher on the A’s

To some degree, this is predicated on the assumption that Billy Beane trades Sonny Gray. Not that I have reason to believe this will happen; I don’t think the A’s will be as bad as most people think but it’s definitely a possibility. With Gray gone, that leaves Jesse Hahn, Rich Hill, Henderson AlvarezKendall Graveman, and Sean Manaea as Bassit’s competition. Admittedly, that’s not exactly a terrifying collection of pitchers as they’ve all recently suffered from injury or ineffectiveness.

That said, Bassit struggled last season with both command and strikeouts. Hitters feasted upon his sinker, the pitch he threw most often, to the tune of a 0.394 wOBA. Only one pitch, his curve, featured an above average whiff rate. But his stuff rates highly and I think he was victimized by elements of bad luck last season that should sort themselves out in 2016. I’m actually quite high on Bassit this year and even if Gray remains with the team, the difference between them might not be as large as you’d think.

4. Nick Hundley finishes as a top 5 catcher

What a difference a mile of elevation makes, huh? In 2014, Hundley finished the season with a .279 wOBA. Last season, he finished at .348. He even swiped 5 bases to boot. Roto leagues don’t discount for park and neither do bold predictions. And a catcher who swipes a few bases here and there? Yes, please.

Hundley hit more grounders in 2015. Many will see that as an indication of his demise. I see it as opportunity to improve. I’m also anticipating a rise in HR/FB rate due to his park and perhaps an increase in plate appearances as well, which when combined with a few unfortunate backstop injuries, will elevate Hundley into the upper tiers of the position.

5. Chris Heston is a fixture on mixed-league rosters

Last season, Heston imploded in the second half, which belies how well he actually pitched in the first. Attributing the swoon to fatigue, just about every peripheral that could go wrong for him did. I’m betting on Heston repeating his 2015 first half, during which he posted the NL’s 5th best groundball percentage with unsexy but above average strikeout and walk rates.

Pitching in front of an elite defense and in a park that suppresses homers, Heston could break out this year. He’ll never win a strikeout title but some of you will love what he does for your ERA and WHIP. I’m predicting he finishes the season more valuable than one of the Giants’ other more well-known starters, who may just make an appearance on this list.

6. Hunter Strickland closes out 20 games

I really love this guy. Huge fastball, great underlying skillset, and a ton of upside. Opportunity is really all that stands in his way and it’s not just Santiago Casilla. Sergio Romo had an incredible season and enters 2016 with more than a little closer experience. I don’t know why if you’re Bruce Bochy in an even year and presumably competitive, you’d hand over closer reigns to someone who’s never done it before when you have an equally capable pitcher available who has. But Bochy favors the Bold.

7. The AL West features four Top 10 fantasy second basemen

Altuve? Lock. Cano? Of course. Odor? Probably. So that leaves Johnny GiavotellaJed Lowrie, and Chris Coghlan. I’m not so bold that I’m picking Giavotella. Ackley might but I won’t. Jed Lowrie? Yeah, possible. But my money is on Coghlan, who had a .784 OPS last season, stole 11 bases and left the yard 16 times. Yes, he’s a part-time player because he can’t hit lefties, but hey…it’s not like he can’t hit righties, am I right? Coghlan’s 2015 numbers would have ranked 4th in homers, 10th in stolen bases, and 5th in OPS among second baseman making all this feel pretty obvious actually.

In fact, the biggest question mark here is whether he earns second base eligibility in enough formats. I don’t know, do the A’s like to move players around the diamond? Is Dustin Ackley a regular at the Old Spaghetti Factory?

8. 2016 is the year fantasy owners realize they love K-Pop

I’m betting big on Byung-Ho Park, Hyun-Soo Kim, and Dae Ho Lee’s power. The three will combine for 65+ homers. You want me to get more specific? Ok, how’s 31 from Park, 22 from Kim, and 11 from Lee? The projection systems are big on Park and Kim, two KBO sluggers in the middle of their power primes. I worry a little about their adjustments to MLB. I worry a little about Park’s…park although it’s not terrible for righties. I worry a lot about Lee, for whom there are no projections (or even a Fangraphs page, for that matter), because he’s on the short side of a platoon. And he because he’s 33. And he’s 300 pounds…Oy.

9. Jeff Samardzija’s resurgence will prove grossly exaggerated

Shark is a popular choice for a Comeback Player of the Year-type but I’m not buying. Last season was a disaster for the former Fighting Irishman(?). His whiff rate dropped to league average. He stopped inducing ground balls. Neither his BABIP nor HR/FB% indicate he was particularly unlucky. Perhaps his HR rate will drop a little moving to AT&T and he might see some positive regression with regards to his strand rate but I don’t see enough in his peripherals to simply disregard last season as a fluke.

Between the drop in his groundball rate, whiff rate, strikeouts, and command, Shark seems to have lost something. I’m not so sure that a switch to the NL and AT&T in particular will remedy all or even most of that. Will he be roster-worthy? Sure, why not? But will he regain the #2 or even #3 starter status he so brilliantly earned in 2014? No.

10. Liam Hendriks will be an elite closer heading into 2017

What’s not to like about this guy? Overpowering fastball, great strikeout rates, minuscule walk totals. Look, as an A’s fan, I’m pulling hard for Doolittle to regain his grip on the 9th but shoulder injuries are no joke. Sadly, I don’t think he finishes the year as the A’s closer.

The A’s improved their bullpen this season, of that there is no doubt. Ryan Madson, John Axford, and Hendriks add depth and power to the pen and certainly shorten games. When Doolittle ultimately does go down, I think Bob Melvin takes a committee approach from which Hendriks emerges as the clear go-to. Let’s say he closes out 24 games on his way to finishing the season as the clear favorite entering 2017.





Rylan writes for Fangraphs and The Hardball Times. Look for his weekly Deep League Waiver Wire and The Chacon Zone columns this season.

17 Comments
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infinitesauces
8 years ago

wait….you know Greg Bird is out for the entire year, right?

The Real McNulty
8 years ago
Reply to  infinitesauces

technically, A-Rod could be a back up “position player”

Anonymous
8 years ago

SHAME!

SHAME!

SHAME!