There is a time and place to be bold. Perhaps that time is now and that place is here. Perhaps not. It’s also said the meek shall inherit the earth. I’ve always taken that to mean you should hide in a bomb shelter during a nuclear holocaust rather than fighting and looting in the streets. It may also mean your best chance to win your fantasy league is to take no chances.

What follows are my 10 timid predictions for the 2016 season.

Read the rest of this entry »

I love Bold Prediction season here at FanGraphs. Everyday I am hit with dozens of interesting, exciting and unique predictions, almost all of which will be wrong, but almost all of which will contain a nugget of truth that will make me a smarter fantasy player. Plus, I get to make crazy predictions!

But in looking back, I realized I have a tendency to be overly positive. In four years doing Bold Predictions, I have put out 33 positive posits and only seven negative notions. This year, we restore balance! One other change this year – I have been tracking the Bold Predictions of my fellow Rotographers, and any player I am predicting that they already predicted, I will be bolder.

Read the rest of this entry »

“Be bloody, bold, and resolute.” The approach didn’t work out for Macbeth, but these are nonetheless words to live by for the Birchwood Brothers. As we’ve often mentioned, we’re no better than Joe Fan at predicting the value of upper- and mid-tier players. We like Kole Calhoun, for example, but we have no idea whether he’s worth $15, $20, or somewhere in between. We leave the task of determining that to our Fangraphs colleagues.

We nonetheless find most of said colleagues’ Bold Predictions for the season a trifle, ah, timid. And, insofar as we are vessels of enlightenment, it is because we occasionally identify cheap players who might do something compelling. Remember, we’re the guys who last year urged upon you Jose Ramirez, T.J. House, Jordan Schafer, and Todd Cunningham. We operate at the intersection of the statistical and the anecdotal, and try to separate signal and noise. So, passing lightly over the recent news that–have we got this right?–Goose Gossage is retiring in order to home-school Adam LaRoche, we offer our Genuinely Bold Predictions for 2016. And, to quote a sign we once saw in the window of a discount shop, Everything One Dollars or Fewer. Although now that we think about it, some of the stuff in that shop, though undoubtedly cheap, cost more than a dollar. So let’s start with some guys who will probably cost you only that much, but whom we regard as worth $2 if someone says $1 before you get around to it.

Two Dollar Players

1. Keone Kela will lead the Rangers in saves. Contemplating Kela and Shawn Tolleson, the incumbent closer, we are reminded a bit of the situation before last season with Luke Gregerson and Chad Qualls. Qualls was ostensibly the incumbent, but a trifle long in the tooth and coming off an unusually successful season that was going to be hard to duplicate. Meanwhile, by any conceivable metric, Gregerson was a better pitcher. And so it is with Tolleson and Kela, with the additional fillip that Tolleson has a lot of trouble staying healthy. Read the rest of this entry »

Barry Bonds leads the Marlins in home runs. OK, so this won’t happen but you so know he could.

1. Aaron Hicks finishes as a top 24 outfielder

I made my fondness of Hicks pretty apparent in a previous piece on the Yankees’ playing time battles. In limited plate appearances last season, Hicks kept some pretty impressive company combining speed, power, and plate discipline. In fact, over 600 plate appearances, his numbers pro-rated to a 17/20 season. Moving from Target Field to Yankee Stadium, a 20/20 season seems plausible.

For Hicks, it comes down to two things: playing time and improvement versus righties. Given that Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran are the walking embodiments of a week old French loaf, the boldness in this prediction comes from betting on gains against righties. If he can do it, watch out.

Continuing with the Yankees…

2. The three most valuable position players on the Yankees at year’s end will all start the year as backups or minor leaguers

Of course for this prediction to come true, it hinges on the first. Perhaps it’s unwise to compound predictions. Perhaps I should diversify. Perhaps I’m just really excited for a Yankees youth movement. And no, I’m not a Yankees fan, apparently just an enthusiastic observer.

So obviously, I’m talking about the aforementioned Hicks. The other two missing pieces to the Morris Avenue Miracle are Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. We saw what Bird was capable of last season when his number was called and ZiPS’ confidence in him bodes well.

Sanchez is the real stretch here but given his advanced approach at the plate and that he held his own as a 22 year old catcher in AAA, it’s not out of the realm possibility that given an opportunity, he provides above average production at a premium position. Now Top 3 on the Yankees? Look, this ain’t 2009 but this team still scored the second most runs in the AL last season. A lot has to go right for this to happen.

So, let’s say the Yankees lose Mark Teixeira for a prolonged period because, I don’t know, he hurts his wrist or he falls into a coma after watching one of his post-game interviews. Brian McCann strains a back muscle yelling at someone flipping a bat. Meanwhile, Hicks has already carved out a spot in the lineup spelling Ellsbury or Beltran and the offense teems with the Yankees’ future realized a couple years early. It could happen.

I suppose if you’re being litigious, you could argue that a breakout year by Dustin Ackley could place him in the top 3, making this prediction come true. And to that I say fine. Except that would never happen because everyone knows that the dividing line between a bold prediction and a crazy one is Dustin Ackley.

Read the rest of this entry »

I won’t bore you with introduction. You know how this works.

1) Nicholas Tropeano, Tyler Skaggs and Matt Shoemaker generate more value than Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Hector Santiago.

My prerequisite Angels prediction that isn’t Justin Mason’s “Garrett Richards will win the AL Cy Young award,” this isn’t bold as much as it is irritated. One of Tropeano, Skaggs or Shoemaker will earn the #5-starter role, and injuries (namely, Weaver’s back issues) will affect the rotation at some point, too, so I would understand your reluctance to deem this bold. I anticipate, however, that some amount of poor performance will warrant the removal of one or more of the rotation’s key components of the past few seasons, thus opening the door for one of Anaheim’s younger, cheaper, more talented arms.

2) Jose Berrios will be a top-30 starting pitcher.

Read the rest of this entry »

No fancy intro here. I tried to make them all fantasy relevant for uh, the first time ever. So here goes:

1. Kyle Gibson holds top-50 value in leagues this season.

Gibson is currently coming off the board at No. 363 according to Fantasy Pros, which ranks him the 109th starting pitcher on average being drafted. And I see why most are meh on him; he’s not exactly young, walks too many guys and is much more of a contact/grounders guy than strikeouts. He’s the quintessential Twins pitcher. But if you strip down his 6.7 K/9 mark, you’ll see that he fanned six batters TOTAL in April, and had respectable rates thereafter.

Here’s his month-by-month K/9:
April – 2.4
May – 5.4
June – 8.2
July – 8.6
August – 6.1
September/October – 8.3

While it isn’t totally clear what the ceiling is here, he fanned 7.4 batters per nine in the second half. Combine that with a better than 50 percent groundball rate, and you might have something there.

2. Zach Britton is the No. 1 closer in fantasy this year.

I’m going nuts for his combo of nearly 80 percent groundball rate, 10.8 K/9 and virtually no walks. I don’t care if his team isn’t likely to be good. I think he saves 40-plus games with ease. He’s also going nearly 30 picks after Craig Kimbrel, and exactly 30 after Kenley Jansen.

3. Jeremy Jeffress is a top-half closer.

He’ll first have to fend off Will Smith for the regular role, and he’s also going to be closing for a bad team. But I like the stuff; he combined nearly a strikeout per inning with a nearly 60 percent groundball rate. Oddly enough, neither he nor the left-handed Smith were all that effective against lefties last year, but I’d wager manager Craig Counsell would be more likely to want to have more flexibility to use the lefty than Jeffress. Then again, maybe Smith gets traded as well.

4. Aaron Hicks becomes Carlos Gomez, 2.o. Read the rest of this entry »

Well, here goes it. My first bold predictions list while working at RotoGraphs. This proved to be quite a difficult exercise because a lot of these lists have already been published, and rather than just make a copy combining all of our authors, I wanted to be somewhat original. I guess there is something to the adage that great minds think alike, as some players I mention, have already been mentioned by our wonderful staff. Eno Sarris had mentioned batting .300 last season, so that sounds like a lofty, though attainable, goal for myself. Without further adieu, here are my 10 bold fantasy predictions for the upcoming season.

1.) Chris Carter will break 100 RBI’s.
I am a believer in Carter’s September/October where he slashed .333/.400/.822. He walked less during those months, but he also struck out less. I don’t think he will hit for those numbers for a full season, but I also don’t think he will struggle for a significant part of the season as he did last season. Given regular playing time in Miller Park, the home runs will come. I also like the RBI opportunities with Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun batting immediately in front of him.

2.) Joc Pederson will be a top 3 CF according to WAR
It’s easy to forget Pederson’s first half after his woeful second half. If Pederson mirrored his first half, he would’ve finished with 40 home runs and had been the clear Rookie of the Year Award winner. Pederson, instead, hit a skid that lasted the rest of the season. Still, his walk rate was an excellent 15%. He will never hit for a high average with his low contact rate, but will still provide excellent value with his walks and if his power comes back, which is not far-fetched at all given his age. Star players hit are able to overcome roadblocks and Pederson happened to have an extended one. A full-season of maturing, and a new manager with a different approach could do wonders for this 24 year old.

3.) Wilmer Flores will have over 550 PA’s
With Asdrubral Cabrera potentially starting the season on the DL, David Wright needing more rest than most regulars, and Neil Walker struggling against lefties, there are a few scenarios where Flores receives extended playing time in the infield. With the lack of middle infielders available, Flores could be a nice sneak pick who hit 16 HR’s in under 500 AB’s. The Mets have an aging left side of the infield that will need their rest, and Flores is the clear choice to get those reps, especially with Ruben Tejada recently released. Given a substantial amount of at-bats, 20 home runs is not out of the question.

4.) Johnny Cueto will post an ERA higher than 4
I know, he changed leagues and had a new catcher, and the list goes on why Cueto didn’t pitch as well in August, September, and October. (Well, outside of Game 2 of the World Series). I’m concerned with the age and the drop in strikeouts in his second half. The ballpark and the move back to the NL should help, but I am not convinced he has the stuff anymore to bounce back to his pre-Royals numbers.

5.) Lucas Duda will be a top 5 fantasy 1B
The low batting average, lack of RBI’s, and the strength of 1B fantasy talent has kept Duda out of the top five so far in his career. Duda should have the best line-up he’s ever had surrounding him, meaning more RBI opportunities, and even more opportunities to be driven in. He’s averaged slightly over 28 home runs over the past two seasons, and if he’s able to stay healthy and plays a full season, breaking 30 homers is certainly within the realm of possibility. Stories are breaking that have Duda taking less practice swings before games, which some contribute to his past injuries. Breaking 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s will place Duda in some top tier company at first base.

6.) Marcus Semien will be a 20/20 guy this year.
At 24 years old, Semien showed some positive signs, particularly his 148 ISO, at least for a young SS. His minor league numbers show that a 20/20 season is not too far fetched. Across two levels in 2014 (AAA and MLB) Semien combined for 21 home runs. Across two levels in 2013 (AA and AAA) Semien stole 24 bases. I am basing this prediction mostly on his maturation process, which is not a full-proof way to make predictions. Still, this a player who has the skills to hit these goals and has shown in the past it is attainable if he continues to improve at the major league level.

7.) Jake McGee will have 40 saves.
So, yeah, I put a Colorado pitcher on my list. I’ve always been a fan of McGee’s numbers, and his fastball-only approach makes him an ideal fit in Colorado, if that really exists. Jason Motte is a former closer, so he can make a push, but I think McGee’s past stability and how he potentially fits in Colorado makes him a nice 40 save candidate.

8.) Justin Verlander will win the AL Cy Young
The AL has some strong Cy Young candidates, and health will always be a question for Verlander, but I see an excellent season coming from the Tigers ace. His second half was vintage Verlander in terms of ERA and WHIP. His strikeout rate was not where it once was, but he showed stronger control and command. The Tigers line-up and rebuilt bullpen should also help his win total, which we all know doesn’t mean everything in real baseball, but in terms of Cy Young voting carries significant weight.

9.) George Springer will go 30/30
Springer stole 34 bags in the minors in 2013, but surprisingly has yet to hit 30 homers in any level. That’s not necessarily because he lacks the ability, but mainly because he has trouble staying healthy. If Springer stays healthy, the sky’s the limit, but that has been a big if. He had a semi-Jekyll and Hyde season last year where he started the year off with more power, walks, and less contact, then dropped his walk rate and power, but significantly improved his contact rate. Putting those all together (or some combination of those improvements) can go a long way towards this prediction.

10.) Trea Turner will lead the Nationals in stolen bases.
Playing time and Ben Revere will be the main deterrents for this prediction. Even if Turner is not starting to begin the year, I think he will find playing time with Danny Espinoza being his main competition at short, and Daniel Murphy potentially getting time at first base if Ryan Zimmerman gets hurt. I also see Turner as a late inning replacement in close games in order to steal a bag to put crucial runs in scoring positions. Dusty Baker likes to run and this Spring Training has shown nothing different.

As with Joe’s earlier post, these ottoneu predictions specifically reference the FGPts scoring system. Let’s get down to it!

1) No catcher will score 800 points, and two or fewer will score over 600 points.

At face value, this one might not seem so bold, but keep in mind that at least one catcher has scored over 800 points each of the past few seasons, and several over 600. The position is always on the verge of falling under these thresholds, though, and this prediction is a bet that this could be the year. Perhaps Buster Posey underperforms a bit, Jonathan Lucroy doesn’t play such a heavy schedule of games, and some of the middle-tier options split playing time more than expected. We’ve talked before about how catching is a deep but very flat position in ottoneu, and this would be further proof of the fungibility of a position where a dozen players can all give you similar production.

2) Zack Cozart will be a top 10 shortstop in FGPts.

If Cozart keeps up his 50 game breakout, he could make this happen, no problem. But that’s a huge “if,” considering he nearly doubled his career ISO, and jumped 70 points in wOBA from 2014. Here’s hoping Cozart’s short-lived mission to “crush the inside part of the ball” pays dividends in 2016!
Read the rest of this entry »

Making bold predictions is one of my favorite activities in advance of an upcoming baseball season. It allows me — and the other writers partaking in the bold predictions series — to identify the bandwagons we’re on (or perhaps even driving). While now is the time of fluffy stories about players being in the best shape of their lives and poised for career years, not all is rainbows and butterflies. Below, you’ll find a few not so friendly bold predictions, too.

Read the rest of this entry »

I present to you my ten bold predictions for this upcoming season. I’ve placed these items in order of increasing boldness to give you some sense of how likely I think these things are to occur, in hopes that they’re more actionable. The items toward the top of the list are more likely to happen but perhaps not as bold… But I get pretty far out there by the end.

10. Gerardo Parra finishes the year as a top 25 OF. I feel as though this is cheating. Not bold enough. After all, he finished as the 3oth best OF last year (by my calculations). And yet, he’s being drafted as the 53rd OF this season. The issue here may be the projected platoon role he’s in. But is Ryan Raburn really going to take a lot of playing time from him? And with the possibility of Carlos Gonzalez being traded, there are other paths to a full-time role.

In the days of declining batting averages and diminishing stolen bases, a simple 12 HR, 12 SB, and .290 season (his Steamer projection) really adds up in value. Not to mention the move to Colorado offers hope for even more offense. It seems like Parra is being drafted as the former utility outfielder he was with Arizona. He wasn’t sexy. Nobody wanted him. Hopefully putting him in the top 25 crosses the bold threshold.

9. Jose Altuve finishes the year as a top five hitter. Is that bold? I’m not sure. He finished last year as the 13th highest earning hitter and is being drafted as the tenth hitter heading into 2016. Projecting him to outproduce all of Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, and Carlos Correa to reach the top five does feel bold-ish. One of my favorite facts about Altuve is that he’s still just 25 years old. I suspect that many believe him to be older than he is because he’s been around for nearly four and a half MLB seasons. Why can’t he have a little more growth in him? Read the rest of this entry »