My first attempt at making bold predictions (2015) was rather aimless. My second attempt (2016) was a little more focused and a little more successful, with my baby boo Jose Ramirez finally making good on his promise (and redeeming my year-too-early prediction for him in 2015). This year, I’ve earnestly attempted to make bold predictions that spawned from research. In other words, they’re not bold for the sake of being bold — not that those kinds of predictions can’t be fueled by research, but, well, you know. Anyway, you don’t care about any of this. Let’s get to the goods.

For those keeping score at home: five predictions apiece for hitters and pitchers, in alternating order.

1) Alex Dickerson is a top-30 outfielder.

Original post from September. The premise is simple: keep an outfield job and sustain his place discipline gains. With prospects Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot and speedster Travis Jankowski fighting for playing time, Dickerson seems to have fallen to the wayside. I’m not sure why; he projects to be the Padres’ 4th-best hitter by wOBA and best-hitting outfielder by more than 30 points. Accordingly, the projection systems must believe in his plate discipline gains — and they do. The doubters will doubt, but the gains emerged in 2016 prior to his promotion. In a full season’s work, he looks like a poor man’s outfielding Kyle Seager: 20 home runs, 10 steals, a .270 batting average. As the 70th outfielder off National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) draft boards, it’ll cost you virtually nothing to find out.

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1. A.J. Pollock receives first-place MVP votes

Pollock put together a season for the ages in 2015. In 157 games and 673 plate appearances, he slashed .315/.367/.498 with a .371 wOBA and 131 wRC+. He hit 20 home runs, scored 111 runs, and stole 39 bases in 46 attempts. That offense, combined with his elite center field defense and base-running, netted him 6.5 WAR ­­­— fifth-best total in the National League. Pollock’s 2015 production wasn’t a fluke: in 75 games and 287 plate appearances the previous season, he hit a similar .302/.353/.498 with a .372 wOBA and 134 wRC+. 2016, however, was a lost season for Pollock, who missed most of the year due to a broken elbow. Entering 2017, he’s only 29 years old and he appears to be healthy. Assuming good health, he’s certainly capable of putting up MVP numbers.

2. Aledmys Diaz has a better offensive season than Trea Turner

Much was made of Turner’s spectacular big league debut in 2016, and rightfully so. The rookie slashed .342/.370/.567 with 13 home runs and 33 steals in just 73 games and 324 plate appearances. Turner’s performance, however, was buoyed by an unsustainable .388 BABIP. While his skill set lends itself to higher-than-average BABIP’s, it’s expected to land somewhere closer to .350 in 2017, bringing his likely batting average down below .300. What’s more, his minor league track record suggests that he may not crack 15 home runs all year, despite nearly reaching that total in half a season like he did in 2016. Turner, 23, is one of the most exciting fantasy players around, especially since he’s eligible at shortstop, second base, and outfield. However, because substantial regression is expected, there’s another young shortstop in St. Louis who could easily be the superior offensive weapon in 2017 and beyond. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s bold prediction season! Josh Shepardson kicked off the party last Friday. I always find an excuse to write two of these posts. Last year, I supplied 10 Timid Predictions to complement my bold choices. For reasons that still escape my understanding, the timid predictions did not go over well. This year, I’ll take a more traditional approach, splitting my hot takes into positive and negative editions. Which do you think I’ll cover today?

With further ski doo…

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Almost exactly one year ago I tried my hand at 10 bold predictions with mixed results. This year, I aim to improve my results without watering down the boldness of the predictions. There’s an optimistic vibe to my 10 predictions this year as only one calls for a disappointing performance this season.

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The San Francisco Giants of recent history have mystified the baseball world. Three unexpected World Series championships in five seasons will have that effect on people. In the mid-2000s, Giants fans endured teams that were Barry Bonds or bust. When Pablo Sandoval was named an All-Star in 2011, he became the first homegrown Giants position player to be so honored since Matt Williams in 1996.

All that has changed. Call it what you wish: Devil Magic, Pixie Dust, or Just Plain Luck. Any way you slice it, the modern Giants have churned out above-average position players at an above-average rate. Sandoval, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Matt Duffy have all made their mark on the big leagues since 2009, and most have been unexpected contributors to unexpected title runs. Read the rest of this entry »

I always enjoy making bold predictions prior to the season. The 10 Bold Predictions series represents the culmination of grinding through pre-season rankings and are published shortly before the regular season. This year, my predictions were published on March 18th, and you can view them here. With the regular season, and thus the fantasy season completed, I can now look back on those picks and assess whether they hit or missed. Overall, I was pleased with the results. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m a little late to the party reviewing my bold predictions. Out of sheer cowardice (or a schedule crunch/things continually coming up). They are, as always, a mixed bag. I find 3/10 is the number you’re kind of aiming for, because any lower and you’re an idiot and any higher and you weren’t bold enough. So, let’s see how this goes.
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Back in March, I compiled the bold predictions from all the RotoGraphs writers to figure out which were our most common. Now we can look back and see if we did any better as a group than we did as individuals.

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These were fun. I usually just say crazy things to my friends and when one of them is true, try to remind them about it and they usually don’t care because they have lives that involve things outside of baseball. Losers. Anyway, here is my initial Bold Predictions article along with my midseason review where a few of my colleagues and myself were so impatient, we had to see where we stood. My goal was to bat .300, so let’s see if I was able to hit my mark. Then laugh at all the ones I was terribly wrong on.

1.) Chris Carter will break 100 R.B.I.

This was the prediction I felt most confident about going into the midseason review and I came very close to nailing this one as Carter ended up with 94 RBI Coming into the season, I really felt strong about Carter having a strong season because of opportunity and how he closed out the 2015 season. He hit 41 HRs and had a wRC+ of 114, so I’d say his season was a success and the spirit of this prediction was pretty spot on. I didn’t account for the Brewers trading away Jonathan Lucroy, which maybe could’ve accounted for another 6 RBI? To be fair, I also didn’t think Jonathan Villar would have the type of season he did and that certainly gave Carter more RBI opportunities than anticipated.

Since I am going to be struggling to find hits with these other predictions, I am going to give myself the every-so-common half a hit. Trust me, it will not help my batting average too much.

0.5 for 1

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It’s that time of year again where we look ourselves in the mirror and admit defeat.  Some of these predictions are pretty ugly.

Disclaimer: these projections are were bold (at least they’re supposed to be), and most are made in the context of Ottoneu fantasy baseball.

1) Yangervis Solarte will outscore Rougned Odor in 2016.

From a Roto standpoint, Odor was the better player in 2016, breaking out for a .271 AVG with 33 HR and 14 SB’s.  This prediction was made in the context of Ottoneu however, and it’s wOBA-weighted scoring format didn’t love Odor nearly as much.  Looking back, this prediction now just appears to be poorly worded, since Odor (818 points, 150 games) outscored Solarte (570 in 109) by nearly 250 points, almost entirely with the benefit of a healthier season.  Solarte (2.5 WAR, 118 wRC+, .346 wOBA) was the superior player to Odor (2.1 WAR, 106 wRC+, .336 wOBA) in almost every other advanced offensive metric, so this one was kinda close.

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