This is the first bold predictions I’ve ever made public! Which is scary, for you, and I get all ten right. Just kidding. I’m a Mets fan, so I’ll get my Mets homer related ones out of the way first:

1: Steven Matz will be a top 10 starting pitcher

I believe from a combination of his velocity (94-95), his stuff (very nasty), competitive drive (off the charts), and cheat codes (he’s left handed) he can sustain some of the weakest batted ball contact in the game. Now tack on his command (6% walk rate) and strikeout rate (23%) and you have a guy with legitimate ace potential.

I’m using xStats to judge his batted ball value. He kept batters to an expected .231/.278/.363 slash line in 2016, with an xOBA of .268.

Amongst pitchers with at least 100 IP last season, Matz ranked 12th according to xOBA behind Clayton Kershaw, Jose Fernandez, Rich Hill, Noah Syndergaard, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, and Max Scherzer.

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RotoGraph’s Bold Predictions pieces make for an undoubtedly fun series to be a part of. The challenge is finding that sweet spot between bold and insane which, to my understanding, results in about 3 correct predictions out of 10. Last year, my first, my boldness led me off the deep end as faith in such luminaries as Aaron Hicks, Chris Heston, and Chris Bassit went unrewarded. Hard to believe.

But given that our job at RotoGraphs is to give our readers advice as to how they should manage their fantasy teams, it’s only fair that I put my money where my mouth is and base my predictions, to the extent possible, on players I’ve recently endorsed. So, with that said, let’s get bold!

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As promised on Tuesday, I’ve opted to produce two times the Bold Predictions, organized by positive and negative. The positive edition already exists in the etherwebs. Now it’s time to get negative. But first, I forgot to list my boldest positive prediction. Let’s strain to fit it among the negatives.

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It is Bold Prediction season here at Fangraphs and I am ready to improve on my 2.5 correct out of 10 from last year.

This year I decided to do mine a bit different. I have been vacation and busy preparing for my trip to New York for Tout Wars, where I will be crashing/helping out with the festivities and harassing/getting to meet fellow industry colleagues. So, I decided to focus on players and themes that I felt I have not been able to touch on as much on my podcast or here at Rotographs. Read the rest of this entry »

Somehow I weaseled myself out of doing 2016 BOLD predictions. No luck this year. Paul has implemented released his Shocky Monkeys and I am forced to make some sort of fact-based BOLD predictions.

Note: For ADP values, I used NFBC for this season and will use our auction calculator for end-of-season values.

BOLD prediction #1: Trea Turner will perform 20 spots worse than his ADP suggests.

I am not down on Turner one bit but nothing points to him being a top 10 fantasy hitter. Unless a person projects out his 2016 for a full season. I feel comfortable taking him around pick 20 overall but he will likely never last that long. I was going to say never but he has lasted to the 20 pick in at least one NFBC league.

I find the most projection variance with first or second-year players. It takes just one person of the 10 to 20 people in the draft to have an overly optimistic projection to bump up the value. Or they have a fear of missing out on the next big thing. Turner has a range of 1st overall to that 20th ranking. The two hitters going before or after Turner, Manny Machado (4th to 12th) Josh Donaldson (8th to 20th) have a tighter ADP range. Someone else can take the chance and I will grab last year’s 1st round phenom, Carlos Correa, a few picks later.

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Below are my bold predictions for the 2017 season. As always, these are ottoneu fangraph points specific. I tried to add enough qualifiers to make each of them “bold” but feel free to ridicule in the comments if you think otherwise. It should be noted that, if I do this right, I should get 3 out of 10. I tried to frame them accordingly. The predictions are in bold (no particular order), followed by a brief synopsis. The synopsis is more important than the prediction itself. Some of these players may not meet my criteria for their specific prediction come year end, but this should give you a grouping of names that I like as we approach opening day.

Carlos Martinez becomes an ottoneu ace ($30+ SP)

When we released our SP rankings, we had 10 SP being worth $30+. Of those ten, seven are clear cut $30 pitchers (Kershaw, Syndergaard, Scherzer, Bumgarner, Sale, Strasburg, and Kluber), with six SP falling into the $28-$31 range (Arrieta, Archer, Lester, Carrasco, Cueto and Darvish). For 2017, I believe Carlos Martinez will vault into the upper tier of fantasy aces, returning $30 of value. For those wondering what $30 of value equates to, consider the upper bound of that second tier. Read the rest of this entry »

My first attempt at making bold predictions (2015) was rather aimless. My second attempt (2016) was a little more focused and a little more successful, with my baby boo Jose Ramirez finally making good on his promise (and redeeming my year-too-early prediction for him in 2015). This year, I’ve earnestly attempted to make bold predictions that spawned from research. In other words, they’re not bold for the sake of being bold — not that those kinds of predictions can’t be fueled by research, but, well, you know. Anyway, you don’t care about any of this. Let’s get to the goods.

For those keeping score at home: five predictions apiece for hitters and pitchers, in alternating order.

1) Alex Dickerson is a top-30 outfielder.

Original post from September. The premise is simple: keep an outfield job and sustain his place discipline gains. With prospects Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot and speedster Travis Jankowski fighting for playing time, Dickerson seems to have fallen to the wayside. I’m not sure why; he projects to be the Padres’ 4th-best hitter by wOBA and best-hitting outfielder by more than 30 points. Accordingly, the projection systems must believe in his plate discipline gains — and they do. The doubters will doubt, but the gains emerged in 2016 prior to his promotion. In a full season’s work, he looks like a poor man’s outfielding Kyle Seager: 20 home runs, 10 steals, a .270 batting average. As the 70th outfielder off National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) draft boards, it’ll cost you virtually nothing to find out.

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1. A.J. Pollock receives first-place MVP votes

Pollock put together a season for the ages in 2015. In 157 games and 673 plate appearances, he slashed .315/.367/.498 with a .371 wOBA and 131 wRC+. He hit 20 home runs, scored 111 runs, and stole 39 bases in 46 attempts. That offense, combined with his elite center field defense and base-running, netted him 6.5 WAR ­­­— fifth-best total in the National League. Pollock’s 2015 production wasn’t a fluke: in 75 games and 287 plate appearances the previous season, he hit a similar .302/.353/.498 with a .372 wOBA and 134 wRC+. 2016, however, was a lost season for Pollock, who missed most of the year due to a broken elbow. Entering 2017, he’s only 29 years old and he appears to be healthy. Assuming good health, he’s certainly capable of putting up MVP numbers.

2. Aledmys Diaz has a better offensive season than Trea Turner

Much was made of Turner’s spectacular big league debut in 2016, and rightfully so. The rookie slashed .342/.370/.567 with 13 home runs and 33 steals in just 73 games and 324 plate appearances. Turner’s performance, however, was buoyed by an unsustainable .388 BABIP. While his skill set lends itself to higher-than-average BABIP’s, it’s expected to land somewhere closer to .350 in 2017, bringing his likely batting average down below .300. What’s more, his minor league track record suggests that he may not crack 15 home runs all year, despite nearly reaching that total in half a season like he did in 2016. Turner, 23, is one of the most exciting fantasy players around, especially since he’s eligible at shortstop, second base, and outfield. However, because substantial regression is expected, there’s another young shortstop in St. Louis who could easily be the superior offensive weapon in 2017 and beyond. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s bold prediction season! Josh Shepardson kicked off the party last Friday. I always find an excuse to write two of these posts. Last year, I supplied 10 Timid Predictions to complement my bold choices. For reasons that still escape my understanding, the timid predictions did not go over well. This year, I’ll take a more traditional approach, splitting my hot takes into positive and negative editions. Which do you think I’ll cover today?

With further ski doo…

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Almost exactly one year ago I tried my hand at 10 bold predictions with mixed results. This year, I aim to improve my results without watering down the boldness of the predictions. There’s an optimistic vibe to my 10 predictions this year as only one calls for a disappointing performance this season.

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