“Be not too bold.” So wrote Edmund Spenser in his 1590 best-seller The Faerie Queene, a work so obscure, so archaic, and so tedious that even we can’t stand reading it. And anyway, it’s bad advice, at least when it comes to something called Bold Predictions, and at least for us Birchwood Brothers, whose stock in trade is identifying the unheralded and unsuccessful before they become heralded and unsuccessful. Thus, we pledge: nobody among our ten bold predictions cost more than $1 in the just-completed Tout Wars mixed auction. Indeed, some were reserve-round picks, and some weren’t chosen at all. And to keep our promise, we’re starting with a bonus pick, which includes guys who went for more than $1, though not much more. Thus, in ascending order of improbability, we have: Read the rest of this entry »

Spring is here, and with it comes a renewed sense of optimism for yours truly. The never-ending cold rain and oppressive grayness of my first winter in Seattle is giving way to slightly warmer rain and a lighter shade of gray, and the sun even made an appearance last Tuesday. I’m more excited for baseball season than ever, seeing as I finally live in a major-league city for the first time in my life. Also, WrestleMania and Opening Day — objectively the best two days of the year — land on consecutive days in 2017.

Unfortunately, this time of year also means I get my annual opportunity to make a fool of myself with my Bold Predictions column. The last time I did well with these, I was still in my twenties and The Undertaker’s undefeated WrestleMania streak was intact. I’m not saying that turning 30 (or 31…or 32…) definitively altered my ability to make borderline-crazy-yet-somewhat-possible baseball predictions. However, right around that same time, I developed a bald spot on the top of my head. Without the protective layer of hair, a great many thoughts started escaping my head, and I became much less smart.

What’s changed now? I’m so glad you asked. I recently discovered the incredible Thought Screen Helmet! Originally intended to shield your brain from alien mind-control waves, it turns out that the Thought Screen Helmet not only keeps the aliens out, it also helps keep your thoughts in! Furthermore, the Thought Screen Helmet sports a great track record, with “Only one failure since 1998.”

With my Thought Screen Helmet firmly strapped in, I’m ready to unleash my new and improved Bold Predictions, now featuring occasional accuracy! Hopefully.

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Last year was my first attempt at bold predictions, and it didn’t go very well. I was happy about a couple of my calls (namely Hendricks and Story) but overall I was undone by injuries and some bone-headed hot takes. I’m not sure this year will be any different, but let’s see what my crystal ball shows for 2017:

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It’s time again for all of us to do our 10 Bold Prediction articles. So here are mine:

1. Robbie Ray finishes as a top-10 starter in the NL

I’m on the hype train for Ray, who is currently going off the board as the No. 57 starter in NFBC drafts around 214th overall. The slider is legit, he was much harder to hit in the second half (.313 wOBA against) than the first (.347), he can induce grounders (45.7 percent) and I fully believe throwing to Jeff Mathis will help him quite a bit. The sky’s the limit here.

2. Joe Panik bounces back, finishes as a top-10 top-15 NFBC second baseman Read the rest of this entry »

This is the first bold predictions I’ve ever made public! Which is scary, for you, and I get all ten right. Just kidding. I’m a Mets fan, so I’ll get my Mets homer related ones out of the way first:

1: Steven Matz will be a top 10 starting pitcher

I believe from a combination of his velocity (94-95), his stuff (very nasty), competitive drive (off the charts), and cheat codes (he’s left handed) he can sustain some of the weakest batted ball contact in the game. Now tack on his command (6% walk rate) and strikeout rate (23%) and you have a guy with legitimate ace potential.

I’m using xStats to judge his batted ball value. He kept batters to an expected .231/.278/.363 slash line in 2016, with an xOBA of .268.

Amongst pitchers with at least 100 IP last season, Matz ranked 12th according to xOBA behind Clayton Kershaw, Jose Fernandez, Rich Hill, Noah Syndergaard, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, and Max Scherzer.

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RotoGraph’s Bold Predictions pieces make for an undoubtedly fun series to be a part of. The challenge is finding that sweet spot between bold and insane which, to my understanding, results in about 3 correct predictions out of 10. Last year, my first, my boldness led me off the deep end as faith in such luminaries as Aaron Hicks, Chris Heston, and Chris Bassit went unrewarded. Hard to believe.

But given that our job at RotoGraphs is to give our readers advice as to how they should manage their fantasy teams, it’s only fair that I put my money where my mouth is and base my predictions, to the extent possible, on players I’ve recently endorsed. So, with that said, let’s get bold!

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As promised on Tuesday, I’ve opted to produce two times the Bold Predictions, organized by positive and negative. The positive edition already exists in the etherwebs. Now it’s time to get negative. But first, I forgot to list my boldest positive prediction. Let’s strain to fit it among the negatives.

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It is Bold Prediction season here at Fangraphs and I am ready to improve on my 2.5 correct out of 10 from last year.

This year I decided to do mine a bit different. I have been vacation and busy preparing for my trip to New York for Tout Wars, where I will be crashing/helping out with the festivities and harassing/getting to meet fellow industry colleagues. So, I decided to focus on players and themes that I felt I have not been able to touch on as much on my podcast or here at Rotographs. Read the rest of this entry »

Somehow I weaseled myself out of doing 2016 BOLD predictions. No luck this year. Paul has implemented released his Shocky Monkeys and I am forced to make some sort of fact-based BOLD predictions.

Note: For ADP values, I used NFBC for this season and will use our auction calculator for end-of-season values.

BOLD prediction #1: Trea Turner will perform 20 spots worse than his ADP suggests.

I am not down on Turner one bit but nothing points to him being a top 10 fantasy hitter. Unless a person projects out his 2016 for a full season. I feel comfortable taking him around pick 20 overall but he will likely never last that long. I was going to say never but he has lasted to the 20 pick in at least one NFBC league.

I find the most projection variance with first or second-year players. It takes just one person of the 10 to 20 people in the draft to have an overly optimistic projection to bump up the value. Or they have a fear of missing out on the next big thing. Turner has a range of 1st overall to that 20th ranking. The two hitters going before or after Turner, Manny Machado (4th to 12th) Josh Donaldson (8th to 20th) have a tighter ADP range. Someone else can take the chance and I will grab last year’s 1st round phenom, Carlos Correa, a few picks later.

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Below are my bold predictions for the 2017 season. As always, these are ottoneu fangraph points specific. I tried to add enough qualifiers to make each of them “bold” but feel free to ridicule in the comments if you think otherwise. It should be noted that, if I do this right, I should get 3 out of 10. I tried to frame them accordingly. The predictions are in bold (no particular order), followed by a brief synopsis. The synopsis is more important than the prediction itself. Some of these players may not meet my criteria for their specific prediction come year end, but this should give you a grouping of names that I like as we approach opening day.

Carlos Martinez becomes an ottoneu ace ($30+ SP)

When we released our SP rankings, we had 10 SP being worth $30+. Of those ten, seven are clear cut $30 pitchers (Kershaw, Syndergaard, Scherzer, Bumgarner, Sale, Strasburg, and Kluber), with six SP falling into the $28-$31 range (Arrieta, Archer, Lester, Carrasco, Cueto and Darvish). For 2017, I believe Carlos Martinez will vault into the upper tier of fantasy aces, returning $30 of value. For those wondering what $30 of value equates to, consider the upper bound of that second tier. Read the rest of this entry »