Brad Johnson’s 10 Bold Predictions: Negative Edition

As promised on Tuesday, I’ve opted to produce two times the Bold Predictions, organized by positive and negative. The positive edition already exists in the etherwebs. Now it’s time to get negative. But first, I forgot to list my boldest positive prediction. Let’s strain to fit it among the negatives.

1. Jose Peraza won’t hit fewer than 10 home runs

The most home runs Peraza has ever hit in a season is five. He accomplished the feat last year, split between Triple-A (2 HR in 322 PA) and the majors (3 HR in 256 PA). When Kiley McDaniel graded Peraza’s power back in 2015, he listed 20 game power and 40 raw power. These are not the numbers of a home run hitter.

Most in the fantasy world assume Peraza will be comparable to Ben Revere or Jarrod Dyson. I see potential for a touch of Rajai Davis – his swing has more leverage than the typical slapster. And let us not forget Peraza’s home park. GABP plays like a little league field, and he’ll also get nine games at Miller Park. That’s 90 games in two of three best venues for home runs. He doesn’t need to be Glenallen Hill to reach the seats 10 times in over 600 plate appearances.

2. Clayton Kershaw is not a top 20 pitcher due to injury OR he is not a top five pitcher

Betting against pitchers is the secret to a successful list of bold predictions. Even the healthiest looking pitchers (ahem, David Price) come with somewhere around a 30 percent chance for a substantial injury. That’s in addition to typical decline. These days, even minor pitcher injuries require a month of recovery. Kershaw, as we know, had a back injury last season which probably elevates his injury risk. He’s got an awful lot of mileage on his body and arm – both a risk factor and a sign of durability.

So here’s how we’re going to play this. If Kershaw lands on the 10-day disabled list, he’ll finish outside the top 20 pitchers. By my reckoning he was still a top 10 pitcher last season. If he makes his full complement of starts, he’ll finish outside the top five pitchers.

3. Home runs return to 2015 levels – fewer than 5,000

A billion players put greater emphasis into pulled fly balls last season. Another billion are working on similar adjustments this spring. And while the chic new approach to batting provided us with a ton of fantasy value, you better believe the pitchers are working on countermeasures.

Overall, hitters bopped 5,610 home runs last season, up from 4,909 homers in 2015. I’m predicting fewer than 5,000 home runs as pitchers learn to pound the upper half of the zone against known low ball mashers. Front offices are undoubtedly hunting for more high spin rate fastballs.

(Truthfully, I think there will be even more home runs this season, but that’s not a bold take)

4. Edwin Encarnacion turns out to be the worst offseason signing

The Blue Jays received a lot of criticism for completely misreading the corner infield market. They’re undoubtedly still kicking themselves. Encarnacion cost less than twice as much as Kendrys Morales. I’m sure Toronto would have conducted their offseason differently if they knew EE was available for a $60 million guarantee – or that other Morales-like sluggers could be had for pennies.

Encarnacion is not without red flags. He seemingly has one major injury per season. Prolonged cold streaks are not uncommon, usually followed by a lightning barrage of homers. One of these years, the 34-year-old is going to start cold and stay cold. The Indians have to share first base and DH duties between Encarnacion and Carlos Santana, both players who struggle with health. Ideally, they’d both avoid the defensive side of the game to better preserve their bats.

Let us not forget, Encarnacion is one of the earliest adopters of the fly ball revolution. If pitchers adjust, EE may be too long in the tooth to counter-adjust.

5. Todd Frazier posts a lower batting average than last year

A career-worst .236 BABIP led Frazier to an also career-worst .225 AVG. Luckily for fantasy owners, he filled the other four roto categories. It’s tempting to call the low BABIP a fluke, but there were troubling signs in Frazier’s batted ball profile. His line drive rate fell to 15.7 percent. That’s not automatically a stroke of DOOM for fly ball hitters. However, his soft and hard contact rates moved in the wrong direction too.

Frazier, 31, is entering the phase of his career when rapid decline is a real risk. Like Encarnacion, Frazier’s also an early adopter of the Fly Balls Are Life school of hitting. If he struggles to adjust to pitchers working up in the strike zone, we’re going to see a 20 percent infield fly rate and a pitiful batting average.

6. Jonathan Villar steals fewer than 30 bases

Nobody in the fantasy community thinks Villar can repeat his breakout 2016 campaign. I know this because Villar’s production mimicked what people expect of Trea Turner. The Nationals shortstop is a first round pick. Villar generally goes in the third round despite having the longer resume.

Most of the Villar naysayers point to his 19 home runs as the fluke. Or they’ll note his .373 BABIP and .285 AVG. Presumably, the BABIP regresses and the average follows. While they may also have doubts about a repeat of 60-plus stolen bases, most think he’ll be among the league leaders in this category.

I’m coming at this from the opposite direction. I expect Villar to exceed 20 home runs with another high BABIP and tolerable batting average. His batted ball profile is reminiscent of Christian Yelich, except Villar strikes out and isn’t immune to infield flies. As Villar consolidates his status as a major league star with surprising pop, there will be less pressure for him to prove he belongs on the field. The first thing to go will be those extra stolen bases.

7. Aroldis Chapman is not a top five closer

For years, Craig Kimbrel was the god of closers. Even with Chapman pushing him for the title, Kimbrel’s combination of health and consistency made him the top gun. He was the Mike Trout to Chapman’s Bryce Harper. Since Kimbrel left Atlanta, Chapman has firmly claimed the top spot in closerdom. This, per my prediction, is the year a new king is crowned.

To be clear, I am not anticipating a sharp decline from Chapman. Maybe he’ll allow a couple ill-timed home runs in the AL East bandboxes. Mostly, I expect relievers like Zach Britton, Kenley Jansen, Edwin Diaz, Seung-Hwan Oh, Ken Giles, Addison Reed, and Kelvin Herrera (to name a few) to perform at a hyper-elite level. Enough relievers will be hyper elite that Chapman will find himself outside the top five.

8. The Red Sox have the worst bullpen in the American League

The Red Sox are projected to possess the 12th best bullpen (sixth best in the AL) per FanGraphs depth charts. I predict disaster. After flirting with a closet case of the yips over the last couple year, Kimbrel will finally lose all command of the strike zone. He’ll still rack up the strikeouts, but they’ll be accompanied by a Marmolian walk rate. His inability to limit hard contact last season will also continue into 2017.

Tyler Thornburg has been a mess all spring and comes with health concerns. The next best reliever on the staff is… Joe Kelly? How did this happen? Boston could benefit from a mid-season return of Carson Smith, assuming he can get back to the elite level he showed in Seattle.

9. Kenta Maeda throws fewer than 100 innings

This is a bit of Dodgers schadenfreude. I’ve heard, third-hand, that Maeda possesses perhaps the ugliest medical report in the majors. At least among so-called “healthy” pitchers. The club got him through 32 starts last season by limiting the length of his outings. Only twice did he throw seven innings. Never did he throw more than seven. Between short starts, risk of injury, and a thousand similarly unhealthy teammates competing for roles, there are more than a few ways for Maeda to fall short of 100 innings.

10. Robbie Ray throws a no-hitter and posts over a 4.50 ERA

Ray finished the 2016 season with the highest strikeout rate among active, qualified pitchers – 11.25 K/9. He even produced a solid 3.67 BB/9. His 32 starts were also accompanied by an 8-15 record, 1.24 HR/9, .352 BABIP, and a 4.90 ERA (3.45 xFIP). He struggled to strand base runners.

I’m predicting Ray to remain “bad” in his luck stats. He’ll once again post a high BABIP, low LOB%, and a high HR/FB ratio. His ERA will suffer as a result. However, he’ll also have one of those magical days when everything breaks his way.