Yesterday, I participated in a 12-team NL-only auction league hosted by CBS (full analysis available soon from CBS). To add a wrinkle to the experience, I decided to try to construct an average team. No studs, but especially no scrubs. Just spend as close to $11.3 per player as possible. The main reason for this approach is that I wanted to stay away from the bottom feeders common in “Only” auctions. I was looking for regulars across the board. The strategy fell apart as my fortitude and simple rules failed.

First off, I wasn’t able to do much auction planning since I found out about it less than a week ago. Additionally, I didn’t want to use the traditional spread-the-risk approach of a bunch of $20 players. Mine idea was a No Scrubs approach. With $20 players, several $1 players enter the team. I wanted semi-talented players with jobs for every position.

After creating projections using the SGP method, I had to come up with an auction framework. In their book, Simple Rules, Donald Sull and Kathleen Eisenhardt go over how to create and utilize simple rules. Here their basic premise.

You want to make the rules as simple as possible to increase the odds that you will follow them. You can also limit your rules to two or three … to increase the odds that you will remember and follow them.

All right, I decided to go with just two rules.

1. Targets players between $5 and $17 ($11 +/- $6). I would not be able to get every player for exactly $11, so I was going to need some leeway.
2. Don’t overpay or reach for players.

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Many years ago, before I ever dreamed of becoming a fantasy sports analyst, I dreamed of competing in industry leagues. I had no idea how people were chosen and no idea how exclusive they were, but I had a dream that one day I would win Tout Wars, LABR, or CBS. I never thought it would actually happen, but when I joined the industry in 2014, that dream returned. I then learned that there were tons of industry leagues. Many were not exclusive, but those big three were. I figured it would take me the better part of a decade to get in. So, I started my own, the Bay Area Roto Fantasy league (BARF), which drafts its second season in about ten days. However, I still dreamed of being in one of the big three. Read the rest of this entry »

The San Francisco Giants of recent history have mystified the baseball world. Three unexpected World Series championships in five seasons will have that effect on people. In the mid-2000s, Giants fans endured teams that were Barry Bonds or bust. When Pablo Sandoval was named an All-Star in 2011, he became the first homegrown Giants position player to be so honored since Matt Williams in 1996.

All that has changed. Call it what you wish: Devil Magic, Pixie Dust, or Just Plain Luck. Any way you slice it, the modern Giants have churned out above-average position players at an above-average rate. Sandoval, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Matt Duffy have all made their mark on the big leagues since 2009, and most have been unexpected contributors to unexpected title runs. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, our own Brad Johnson discussed unpredictable auction values in “Rationality Will Ruin You”. I 100% agree with his premise. Unexpected inflation exists but so does a solution. By charting out the desired and the potential outcomes before an auction, an owner can remove a ton of auction frustration.

Brad examined the elite player section of the draft where the actual auction values are higher than most people’s predicted values. Owners refuse to pay these high values but instead end up spending their resources on near replacement level talent. The following simple chart helps an owner deal with the problem along with uneven hitter/pitcher mix and outlining a personal auction strategy. The process is similar to the one used in Winning Fantasy Baseball by Larry Schechter but with a few more additions. Here’s the procedure.

Step 1. Get auction values

This step could be as simple as using our auction calculator or creating your own projections like our own Mike Podhozer does. To set the pitcher/hitter mix, use the league’s historic mix or just go with standard 70/30 split.

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Perhaps you’ve seen this tweet at some point over the offseason. It surfaced most recently about 10 days ago via Dave Cameron in his piece about the Dodgers’ intentional inefficiency.

Andrew Friedman: “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughTimes) December 6, 2016

What Friedman says absolutely applies to fantasy baseball. Especially auction drafts. Every year, I see people saying “I’m going to stick to my values.” I’ve been that guy too. Way back when I was the only person in the room with advanced analysis, sticking to my values was a winning strategy. Now it’s a good way to lose every key player.

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So far in my Tout Wars preparation series, I’ve documented the league’s draft tendencies and the stats needed to win. Today, I’ll create the framework for player pricing. Along the way, I will show how there is no position scarcity except with catcher. At least for this league

Completing this step brings the preparation is laborious, but necessary. Once it’s done, I can spend most of my time evaluating players and their projected playing time.

For evaluating players, I utilize the Standings Gain Points (SGP) method. I previously outlined the procedure and it‘s the same method Larry Schechter recommends in his book, Winning Fantasy Baseball. Normally, this procedure is fairly straight forward since I’ve historically used three-year average values. Last year’s offensive explosion complicates the math. With more offense available, home runs, Runs, and RBIs become less important. Predicting 2017’s run scoring environment is impossible so I won’t for now. I feel I need to use a weighted average system with 2016 getting the most weight but I am just not sure how much to weight them. To get the process started, I will use the average standings from 2014 to 2016 for this work.

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I’m continuing to step through my Tout Wars auction prep. Last week, I broke down the league’s draft including the pitcher/hitter mix and some ownership trends. Today, I am going to examine the league’s final standings to see what it takes to win.

Every owner may try to win every category but that approach is completely unrealistic. I believe an owner should never win a category if they are behind in any other one. Every bit of distance between them and second place is a waste. Get to second in every category and then starting taking over the top spots. There is no reason for an owner to win RBIs by 50 if they’re 8th in Runs.

To find what it takes to win the Tour Wars league, here are the average points per category for the past three winners. As a reminder, the league is a standard 15-team 5×5 league with OBP instead of AVG.

Season: Average Points per Category (1st place = 15 points, 2nd place =14 points, …, 15th place = 1 point)
2014: 12.1
2015: 11.3
2016: 12.7
Average: 12.0

A fourth place finish in every category puts me in good shape to win while averaging third place almost guarantees me a win.

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In a recent chat, Paul was asked the following question:

Challenge accepted. By using our auction calculator, I wrote a procedure for any league type which creates an ADP to auction value formula. I will step through the process for any league and provide a few standard equations.

Step one: Set up your league settings in our auction calculator.

Go through all the boxes and make sure each option is set correctly especially the number of bench players to bid on. For a projection, use the Depth Charts.

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Last year, Tout Wars was nice enough to allow me to join their Head-to-Head league which I preceded to barely win. I just got informed that I will not be in this league anymore. Instead, I was upgraded and will join fellow RotoGraphs author, Al Melchior in the 15-team mixed auction league. Previously I’ve stepped through my preparation process for these industry leagues but this year I can’t. We are picking our player in New York City right before the season starts on March 25^th.  Besides Tout Wars, most local leagues will be drafting this weekend just before Opening Day. Anything I write about my procedure leading up the auction will be useless. Instead, I will write about my preparation over the next two months leading up to the auction.

Unlikely last year, this year’s preparation focuses on an established league with the same good owners. It will be a different animal to conquer than last year the league with some unique rules (H2H and Roto), which I exploited as much as I could. The new league is different in that it has been very constant.  Many of the same owners stay around for years and it has few if any rule changes. I will first begin my prep by breaking down the other information from past auctions.

Note: I know reading about another person’s team is unexciting and some information might be not applicable. I’ve added “Key Points” to summarize how the procedure can help individual owners in their own leagues.

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Every year, people around the country decide that the beginning of the year is the time to make resolutions. These New Year’s resolutions are typically ridiculous attempts at self improvement that tend to fade away by Valentine’s Day.

If I sound angry or bitter, I apologize. I just quit smoking and went on a diet. Read the rest of this entry »