Archive for Auction Calculator

Intro

You may have noticed over the years that RotoGraphs has not typically published dynasty rankings. This is likely for any number of reasons. There is no lack of dynasty content or rankings on other sites and, absent a ranking model that adds particular value relative to the rest of the industry, there isn’t much incentive to, as my editor put it, “vibe out a list of rankings.”

I wanted to change that, though. The full rankings model is not ready to hit the press yet, but I wanted to walk you through some of the steps and methodology that are going into my rankings because I both value transparency and think that there are useful insights to glean along the way. First up is the key differentiator in any dynasty ranking: prospects.

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“I think you know my opinion on RP.”

• Trusted leaguemate and fellow fantasy writer Sam Lutz

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Earlier this week when I detailed what is sure to be the most important human versus machine debate our society will face, I found that the projection robots very narrowly edge the ADP market when it comes to predicting fantasy performance. That analysis, though, was based on a half-season of 2026 data with a hint that there might be more to come.

This is that follow-up. My goal here was to conduct a broader analysis on more data to see if the conclusions held up, and it turns out that they did.

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While writing my recent articles about how to use projections to find undervalued players based on market ADPs, I was struck by a follow-up question: when ranking players, which is better – ADP, or projections?

As we strive to value players more objectively, probing this question is valuable. It will help calibrate how much weight to assign consensus rankings versus your favorite projection systems. If we’re lucky, it might point us to some things that the market or the robots identify particularly well relative to the other. When we can marry the strengths of objective, data-driven processes with the advantages of human behavior and judgment, we are better off for it.

And this is a meaty question; theoretically each method has its strengths. Average draft position is a ranking derived from the wisdom of thousands of fantasy owners. It should be valuable in this respect. But we fantasy owners are subject to our own pernicious little human biases when it comes to player evaluation. Are we better off just letting the robots do the work for us?

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Intro

I left you earlier in the week with a promise to dive deeper into the bargain leaderboards created by comparing projected dollar value against the expected dollar value for a pick in that draft slot. Please accept my sincerest apologies if, left without more context, you found yourself mired in the digital equivalent of a TJ Maxx aisle, paralyzed with indecision while selecting which 10 articles of clothing you want to bring to the dressing rooms.

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Ignore Kohl’s in the distance. That’s out of our price range.

Part 1 of this series earlier in the month laid out some groundwork and provided a few basic examples of the benefits of striving to value fantasy assets more rigorously. Part 2 illustrated some of the differences in player value across different types of league settings, and taught you how to construct that analysis for yourself. In this article, I aim to build on those concepts to show you how to hunt for bargains in the draft.

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Fret not, dear reader. This is not that kind of article.

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“You don’t know how to play first base value assets, Scott?”

“That’s right.”

“It’s not that hard, Scott. Tell him, Wash.”

“It’s incredibly hard.”

“Hey, anything worth doing is. And we’re going to teach you.”

Introduction:

By now, 25 years hence, Moneyball concepts are likely old hat to your average RotoGraphs reader. With the suite of technical tools available to the modern fan, it can be easy to forget just how powerful those insights can still be. Read the rest of this entry »

The FanGraphs Auction Calculator is an incredibly useful tool, that can model auction prices based on your preferred inputs (league settings, budgets, etc.) and assumptions (projection system). Like any model, the outputs of the Auction Calculator (AC) are neither inherently good or bad, but a reflection of those inputs and assumptions. If you get them right, you can export a spreadsheet that can drive your auction strategy; get them wrong and things get ugly.

Ottoneu players haven’t always viewed the Auction Calculator as an effective tool, but mostly that comes down to the challenge of finding the right settings. Today, we have updated the preset settings for Ottoneu on the Auction Calculator, making it easier to use and more effective for Ottoneu leagues. The preset settings might look a little odd, but they all serve a purpose.

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The Auction Strategy (Part 1) episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Marc Winokur

Auction Strategy Section

• Differences between auctions and snake drafts
  • Benefits of auctions
  • Difference in preparation
• Advice for new auction players
• The most important items to keep track of during an auction
• Working with a partner
• How online auctions differ from in-person auctions
• How to construct market values
  • What to do for non-standard formats
• How to construct player values
• How to construct strike prices for buying players

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