Yesterday, I examined hitters who owners missed on preseason and what could be done to prevent such mistakes in the future. Today, the underachievers go under the microscope. In my previous article, I used Paul Sporer’s “All First Half” articles for reference. With no underachieving articles out yet, I will look for players with differences in ADP and current rank using our auction calculator.

Extended Injury Stays

Daniel Murphy

I lamented last offseason about missing out on J.D. Martinez’s great 2017 season. I didn’t want to miss out again and was willing to take a chance on Daniel Murphy’s discount.

When I created his projection, I account for six weeks off but it was on the short side. Additionally, once he returned, he wasn’t productive for a few weeks but has a .859 OPS in July.

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We are all learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. -Charlie Munger

It’s time to see if I need to adjust my fantasy baseball beliefs by analyzing the first half busts and breakout lists. While it’s great to acknowledge these players, owners need to sit down and figure out why everyone missed on them. By hitting on one or two of these breakouts, a team could be competing for the top spot. Here are the groups and how to identify the breakout next preseason.

For the player situations I analyzed, I’m used Paul Sporer’s First Half All Value Stars and Fantasy Team for inspiration. I looked for actionable traits or tells which can be used next season.

Unknown Playing Time

Jesus Aguilar

Everyone understood coming into this season that the Brewers playing time situation was going to be a mess, so not owning Aguilar is understandable. He was to be in a platoon with Domingo Santana with middling projections. The deal with Aguilar, he really didn’t have a horrible platton split. It was .372 wOBA vs .338 wOBA in 2017. It’s .444 vs .405 this season.

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Michael Taylor

I was a little surprised to find the 27-year-old available in my Tout Wars league where every semi-decent full-time player seems to be owned. While I didn’t need outfield help, I examined his profile and jumped at the opportunity to roster him.

I valued Taylor as an endgame option coming into the season based on his low AVG and suspect playing time with Victor Robles ready in the minors. The 2018 Nationals outfield has been decimated with injuries so far, so Taylor’s playing. The playing time could end with Adam Eaton attempting to return but, for now, Taylor’s roster spot is secure.

As for Taylor’s talent, he falls into the Drew Stubbs player profile, horrible AVG/OBP skills but a decent combination of home runs and stolen bases. Combining his 2017 minor and major league totals, he posted 20 home runs and 21 stolen bases. While the home runs haven’t come this season, he has hit four with 13 steals in 14 attempts.

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With our auction calculator update, I going to look at three top-rated batters.

Ozzie Albies

In my recent Launch Angle podcast, I had a tough time deciding if I’d draft Ozzie Albies or Jose Altuve in a new 2018 league. I decided I’d go with Altuve but being that I had to think about it, I needed to see if I buy Albies’s ascension into a possible first or second round talent.

Others and myself had an idea Albies was going to be good but just not hit for so much power. If someone would have told me to predict six and 13 for Albies’s home runs and stolen base totals, I would have swapped them. Last year, he had 15 HR and 29 SB. The season before, it was 6 HR and 30 SB. I figured the speed was safe (and it is) but his power may come later. I was right, he isn’t hitting for more power, he’s utilizing his it better.

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3/22/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Alex Cobb to BAL (25:42)
• Steven Souza Jr. hurt shoulder (36:42)
• Ronald Acuna sent down (41:41)

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3/15/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host

Strategy Section: SP Review

• ADP page – set start date at 3/10/18

(apologies for no time tags… I’m getting ready for my trip to NYC this weekend and a little pressed for time)

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We posted our 2B rankings today and I posted my commentary rankings of the position about a month ago. There are some differences between the two and I could’ve probably made even more as I really agonized over some of the slotting. It just speaks to the depth of second base. I can definitely see myself getting my middle infielder from 2B, too. Let’s take a closer look.

The Top

Jose Altuve obviously stands alone as the top dog and there’s no real need to delve too deeply into that. He’s entirely deserving on his slotting and has a very viable case for the top pick ahead of Mike Trout.

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Narratives are the life blood of sportswriters. And so, it’s easy to summarize Jake Arrieta with a series of narratives. Scott Boras overreached, leading to a complicated three-year, $75 million deal rather than the $200 million target. The target was never realistic because Arrieta has declining peripherals. Pitchers tend to mysteriously disappear overnight in their early to mid-30s. Not all pitchers. Many. Most?

These are all familiar narratives regarding Arrieta’s surprisingly long stint in free agency. After signing on March 11 to join an awkwardly positioned Phillies roster, we now have a number of new tales to add to his storybook.

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3/9/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host

Strategy Section: Middle Infield Previews

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Take a peek at the Diamondbacks reliever depth chart. Archie Bradley sits atop the pecking order. We project 22 saves. Free agent acquisition Brad Boxberger is penciled in for seven saves. Yoshihisa Hirano doesn’t have a player page yet and therefore is not listed. He’s definitely in the battle. The Diamondbacks will have more than 29 saves. Perhaps consider the rest as belonging to Hirano.

By NFBC ADP, fantasy owners believe Bradley will close. His 186 ADP is sandwiched directly between undisputed closers Brandon Morrow (185 ADP) and Blake Treinen (186 ADP). At this price, Morrow is the heist equivalent of successfully robbing Fort Knox, but that’s a subject for another day. Boxberger has a 321 ADP. Hirano is floating at a 395 ADP.

In The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (#TGFBI aka Justin Mason’s baby), Bradley has a 177 ADP. Boxberger has only been picked in two of 13 leagues (295 ADP). Hirano has found love in three leagues (298 ADP). A lot of people play NFBC. Mason’s baby is comprised of 195 self-styled fantasy baseball experts. There seems to be a resounding consensus that Bradley will close.

I wonder if he’s even the front runner to win the job. There are three problems with Archie Bradley the Closer in 2018. Read the rest of this entry »