10/10/18

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• Playoff talk (2:00)

Notable Picks Outside the Top 100

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Today, I start the process examining who the industry, owners, and myself missed on with their preseason evaluations. Did a smoking gun exist and everyone missed it or was there no way to guess the outcome?  I’m going to start with two pitchers who had smoking guns, I wrote about the smoking guns, and then I totally ignored them.

The two starters are Gerrit Cole and Anibal Sanchez. Back in February, I highlighted both in a pitch mix change article. Looking back, I made a convincing case for taking a chance on either one. I spent a few hours doing the research and when it came to draft day, I never picked up a share. I failed as both overperformed.

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The date is March 19, 2018. You are about to compete in a live NFBC fantasy baseball auction. You are prepping vigorously for your draft auction. You are reading over your player lists, mulling over which OFs you will go for at the auction table.

Fast forward to September 27, 2018. Now that the season is almost all in the books, you can now look back at your fantasy auction and see all the good, the great, the bad and the terrible decisions you had made just 6 months prior.

Let’s start with a simple OF decision. Which player should you have bought back in March?

Mike Trout (OF, LAA)

OR

Eddie Rosario (OF, MIN)

Sounds like a fairly easy decision, no?  But to help you out, before you answer the question … I’ll provide you with some 2018 statistics (as of 9/26):

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I posted my first five rounds yesterday and you can check those out here. I was going to post my first nine rounds, but I was minutes away from my 10th pick so I decided to break it up into two 5s.

Round 6, Pick 62: Marcell Ozuna | OF, STL (ADP: 69… nice)

While I was ahead of the ADP on Ozuna, this still felt like a bargain to me. He labored through much of the first half as his shoulder was clearly bothering him, but he’s looked like his 2017 self in the second half with a .303/.353/.527 line and 12 homers in 218 PA. He hit just 10 HR in 377 first half PA and had just a .645 OPS through May. A healthy Ozuna is a top 50 pick.

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Since returning from the disabled list (neck nerve impingement), Stephen Strasburg’s fastball velocity has dropped from averaging 96.1 mph to averaging 93.9 mph. For a pitcher known for bringing the heat, the decline immediately impacts his value going forward. The question isn’t if but how much will be the decline.

First, I completely understand Strasburg could get his fastball velocity back as soon as his next start (the chances for this could be another whole article). When determining the 30-year-old righty’s value, I needed to plant a flag at some velocity and then come up with a projection.

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I think there are not one, but many, questions because there are not one, but many, ways Adalberto Mondesi and Byron Buxton are similar.

Here’s one answer to one possible question:

who has the best fantasy season in 2019?

— Alex "Oxlade" Chamberlain (@DolphHauldhagen) August 29, 2018

I can’t say I’m surprised, but I’m kind of surprised. I asked this question very deliberately, its design not remotely accidental, the response options dripping with subtext. Mondesi, with his elite speed, decent power for a speedster, and very questionable contact skills, in 2018 is almost a dead ringer for Buxton in 2017. Mondesi doesn’t quite have Buxton’s baggage — he doesn’t carry the weight of expectations of a No. 1 prospect — but he has his own, continuing a familial legacy. But they do have a lot in common, as aforementioned, which can be summarily boiled down to this great quip from our Eric Longenhagen: “wholly untamed physical abilities.”

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Yesterday, I examined hitters who owners missed on preseason and what could be done to prevent such mistakes in the future. Today, the underachievers go under the microscope. In my previous article, I used Paul Sporer’s “All First Half” articles for reference. With no underachieving articles out yet, I will look for players with differences in ADP and current rank using our auction calculator.

Extended Injury Stays

Daniel Murphy

I lamented last offseason about missing out on J.D. Martinez’s great 2017 season. I didn’t want to miss out again and was willing to take a chance on Daniel Murphy’s discount.

When I created his projection, I account for six weeks off but it was on the short side. Additionally, once he returned, he wasn’t productive for a few weeks but has a .859 OPS in July.

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We are all learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. -Charlie Munger

It’s time to see if I need to adjust my fantasy baseball beliefs by analyzing the first half busts and breakout lists. While it’s great to acknowledge these players, owners need to sit down and figure out why everyone missed on them. By hitting on one or two of these breakouts, a team could be competing for the top spot. Here are the groups and how to identify the breakout next preseason.

For the player situations I analyzed, I’m used Paul Sporer’s First Half All Value Stars and Fantasy Team for inspiration. I looked for actionable traits or tells which can be used next season.

Unknown Playing Time

Jesus Aguilar

Everyone understood coming into this season that the Brewers playing time situation was going to be a mess, so not owning Aguilar is understandable. He was to be in a platoon with Domingo Santana with middling projections. The deal with Aguilar, he really didn’t have a horrible platton split. It was .372 wOBA vs .338 wOBA in 2017. It’s .444 vs .405 this season.

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Michael Taylor

I was a little surprised to find the 27-year-old available in my Tout Wars league where every semi-decent full-time player seems to be owned. While I didn’t need outfield help, I examined his profile and jumped at the opportunity to roster him.

I valued Taylor as an endgame option coming into the season based on his low AVG and suspect playing time with Victor Robles ready in the minors. The 2018 Nationals outfield has been decimated with injuries so far, so Taylor’s playing. The playing time could end with Adam Eaton attempting to return but, for now, Taylor’s roster spot is secure.

As for Taylor’s talent, he falls into the Drew Stubbs player profile, horrible AVG/OBP skills but a decent combination of home runs and stolen bases. Combining his 2017 minor and major league totals, he posted 20 home runs and 21 stolen bases. While the home runs haven’t come this season, he has hit four with 13 steals in 14 attempts.

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With our auction calculator update, I going to look at three top-rated batters.

Ozzie Albies

In my recent Launch Angle podcast, I had a tough time deciding if I’d draft Ozzie Albies or Jose Altuve in a new 2018 league. I decided I’d go with Altuve but being that I had to think about it, I needed to see if I buy Albies’s ascension into a possible first or second round talent.

Others and myself had an idea Albies was going to be good but just not hit for so much power. If someone would have told me to predict six and 13 for Albies’s home runs and stolen base totals, I would have swapped them. Last year, he had 15 HR and 29 SB. The season before, it was 6 HR and 30 SB. I figured the speed was safe (and it is) but his power may come later. I was right, he isn’t hitting for more power, he’s utilizing his it better.

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