Previously, I uncovered potential undervalued speedsters and power bats by comparing the Steamer projections to the current NFBC ADP. The exercise now continues for batting average.

In 2018, there were 43 qualified players with least a .280 batting average. There were 32 players above the .290 mark, and 16 above .300. Mookie Betts led all of baseball with a .346 BA, followed by his teammate, J.D. Martinez who hit for .330.

Prospective projections though, are typically more conservative. Steamer only projects 11 regular players to bat over .290 in 2019, and only 5 players to hit for at least .300. For the following analysis, I will focus on all players with a Steamer projection of a .280 BA or more. That should give us a nice group of players who can greatly help your team’s batting average in upcoming fantasy season.

For these draft value comparisons, I look at:

• The player ranks as computed by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with Steamer projections (standard NFBC 15 team roto league settings).
• The current NFBC ADP (of Draft Championship leagues from January 24 to present).

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2/17/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @sporer – Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host/Producer

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SPs with Large ADP Splits

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It’s Prospect Week. And it’s Valentine’s Day. So I’m here with five underhyped prospects who could provide sexy fantasy stats. ADPs are from FantasyPros. There’s no further need for introduction. CHARGE!

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2/12/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

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Notable News

• PITCHERS & CATCHERS HAVE REPORTED!!!!!!!!!!
• Francisco Lindor injury (9:40)
• Kyler Murray peaces out to football (22:40)

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It’s Prospect Week at FanGraphs, the most exciting “week” outside of the one dedicated for sharks. I’ll have a chat at 4:00pm ET where we can talk all about prospects for fantasy purposes. In the mean time, let’s lay out some food for thought courtesy of the Dynasty ADP Project.

Please note: my standard for “prospect” may be slightly inconsistently applied. I didn’t bother to confirm rookie eligibility for all players with minimal major league experience. I just eyeballed the list. I might have incorrectly included or excluded a name. Feel free to call me out.

There appear to be a few areas where prospects clump together. You can think of these as tiers. What stands out to me is that with the exception of Vladito and possibly a few others, there isn’t a lot of difference in (my) perceived value between the early prospect picks and the guys around pick 300.

What do you think? Let’s chat about it here and at 4:00pm.

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I read a piece this week from Will Leitch about 10 dark-horse MVP candidates for 2019. I love pieces like that I wanted to bring that similar idea to the fantasy landscape. Replacing “MVP” with “top 10 hitter” which is essentially first round was easy part, but I wasn’t sure what threshold would be worthwhile and highlight some players we’re not already full hyping.

There is only one top 10 hitter this year who had a 2018 ADP later than 66 (Ronald Acuña at 128) and only Christian Yelich (66, obviously) joined him outside the top 33, but I thought inside the top 100 was too easy. Or not necessarily “easy” because identifying the players who will jump into next year’s top 10 hitters is insanely tough once you get past pick 30 or so, but getting drafted within the top 100 is essentially a co-sign that you could surge into those top two rounds. I decided to use 150 as my starting point.

I’ve got 10 hitters currently going outside the top 150 capable of having that dream breakout season needed to make “the leap”. I’ll identify the evolution we could see in their skills to reach the lofty heights worthy pushing to the 1st-2nd round area. After writing them up, I’ll give a 600 PA projection of what the dream season could look like if it comes to fruition. This is a mix of their career performance, their skills profile, projections, and then some dream dust sprinkled on top to get them into the 90th+ percentile of their potential outcomes.

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Introduction:

The catcher position in 2019 is the weakest offensive position in our beloved fantasy baseball competition. It is no secret. Every reasonably astute or semi-intelligent fantasy player is aware of this phenomenon. The more experienced competitor is also cognizant that the position has been getting even weaker over the past few seasons.

Unlike the middle infield positions which I have discussed here, it is clear that the catcher player pool demands a correction to account for “positional scarcity.” A boost is required to the otherwise dreadfully low values that the position would manufacture on its own.

This may be elementary to some, but the idea is as follows:

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Hello and welcome. A couple weeks ago, I promised to work on Average Draft Position (ADP) for deep dynasty leagues. It’s a segment of the fantasy baseball community that is underserved by industry resources. Yes, there are a few dynasty specific sites that provide helpful coverage, but nearly all of the analysis is based on a given writer’s personal rankings and preferences.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with that. However, you would always check redraft rankings against ADP, right? Why not do the same in a dynasty league? Today, we take our first step in the right direction.

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Last week, I uncovered potential undervalued speedsters by comparing the Steamer projections to the current NFBC ADP. Today, I will go through a similar exercise for power.

In 2018, just three players launched at least 40 round trippers (K Davis 48, J.D. Martinez 43, J Gallo 40). Eleven additional players smacked at least 35 dingers, and all together there were 25 players who amassed at least 30 homeruns. Let’s dive into the players with a HR projection of 25+.

For these draft value comparisons, I match:

• The player ranks as computed by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with Steamer projections (standard NFBC 15 team roto league settings).
• The current NFBC ADP (of Draft Championship leagues from December 15, 2018 to present).

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