Top 60 Deep Dynasty Prospects By ADP
It’s Prospect Week at FanGraphs, the most exciting “week” outside of the one dedicated for sharks. I’ll have a chat at 4:00pm ET where we can talk all about prospects for fantasy purposes. In the mean time, let’s lay out some food for thought courtesy of the Dynasty ADP Project.
Please note: my standard for “prospect” may be slightly inconsistently applied. I didn’t bother to confirm rookie eligibility for all players with minimal major league experience. I just eyeballed the list. I might have incorrectly included or excluded a name. Feel free to call me out.
| Rank | Player | Avg Rank | Ovr Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guerrero Jr., Vladimir | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Jimenez, Eloy | 34.25 | 35 |
| 3 | Robles, Victor | 54.75 | 51 |
| 4 | Franco, Wander | 60.67 | 56 |
| 5 | Tatis Jr., Fernando | 61.75 | 60 |
| 6 | Tucker, Kyle | 71 | 65 |
| 7 | Senzel, Nick | 89.25 | 80 |
| 8 | Bichette, Bo | 90.5 | 82 |
| 9 | Lewis, Royce | 94 | 88 |
| 10 | Whitley, Forrest | 99.75 | 97 |
| 11 | Reyes, Alex | 105.5 | 103 |
| 12 | Rodgers, Brendan | 109.75 | 107 |
| 13 | Hiura, Keston | 118.75 | 114 |
| 14 | Adell, Jo | 120 | 117 |
| 15 | Luzardo, Jesus | 128.25 | 121 |
| 16 | Honeywell, Brent | 134 | 122 |
| 17 | Kieboom, Carter | 147 | 131 |
| 18 | Alonso, Peter | 147.75 | 133 |
| 19 | Alvarez, Yordan | 148.75 | 136 |
| 20 | Trammell, Taylor | 149.5 | 138 |
| 21 | Meadows, Austin | 155 | 144 |
| 22 | Kirilloff, Alex | 160 | 148 |
| 23 | Soroka, Mike | 165.25 | 154 |
| 24 | Urias, Luis | 169.5 | 156 |
| 25 | Kopech, Michael | 185 | 169 |
| 26 | Brujan, Vidal | 185.33 | 170 |
| 27 | Mejia, Francisco | 187.25 | 173 |
| 28 | O’Neill, Tyler | 188.5 | 175 |
| 29 | Calhoun, Willie | 191.75 | 179 |
| 30 | Sanchez, Sixto | 195.75 | 182 |
| 31 | Puk, A.J. | 201.5 | 188 |
| 32 | Valera, George | 205.33 | 192 |
| 33 | Bauers, Jake | 207.75 | 198 |
| 34 | Robert, Luis | 207.75 | 199 |
| 35 | Verdugo, Alex | 214.75 | 207 |
| 36 | Mize, Casey | 214.75 | 208 |
| 37 | Keller, Mitch | 215 | 209 |
| 38 | Riley, Austin | 215.5 | 211 |
| 39 | Gore, MacKenzie | 225.25 | 219 |
| 40 | Toussaint, Touki | 226 | 220 |
| 41 | Hampson, Garrett | 233.5 | 230 |
| 42 | Jansen, Danny | 237.25 | 234 |
| 43 | Sanchez, Jesus | 249.5 | 247 |
| 44 | Cease, Dylan | 252.5 | 250 |
| 45 | McKay, Brendan | 257 | 253 |
| 46 | Gimenez, Andres | 258.75 | 255 |
| 47 | Paddack, Chris | 268.25 | 265 |
| 48 | Lowe, Brandon | 272.67 | 274 |
| 49 | India, Jonathan | 273.25 | 277 |
| 50 | Pache, Cristian | 276.5 | 281 |
| 51 | Gorman, Nolan | 277.5 | 282 |
| 52 | Mesa, Victor Victor | 278 | 283 |
| 53 | Stewart, Christin | 283.25 | 284 |
| 54 | Greene, Hunter | 286.5 | 287 |
| 55 | Hayes, Ke’Bryan | 297.75 | 298 |
| 56 | Lowe, Nate | 302 | 301 |
| 57 | Bart, Joey | 302.75 | 302 |
| 58 | Anderson, Ian | 303.5 | 303 |
| 59 | Madrigal, Nick | 304.75 | 305 |
| 60 | Wright, Kyle | 305.25 | 306 |
| 61 | Edwards, Xavier | 305.67 | 308 |
| 62 | Sheffield, Justus | 307 | 310 |
There appear to be a few areas where prospects clump together. You can think of these as tiers. What stands out to me is that with the exception of Vladito and possibly a few others, there isn’t a lot of difference in (my) perceived value between the early prospect picks and the guys around pick 300.
What do you think? Let’s chat about it here and at 4:00pm.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
No Cease?
Gah, I somehow skipped McKay and Cease between Sanchez and Gimenez.
This is awesome. Based on the results, this looks like a keep-forever no costs list (eg no significant emphasis on proximity to majors), correct?
I think all 4 leagues in the sample use keep X at no cost where X > 25.
Jiminez, Trammel, Gore and Kiriloff are my favorites right now. Something about them keeps drawing me back to them, even over others who are clearly better. I mean, not Baby Vlad, but he is already owned in my league anyway.
FYI – Jake Bauers lost his rookie eligibility.
Yep. I think Meadows did, too.
surprised valera is so high with such limited exposure last year
You mean 2 games wasn’t enough? Yeesh, what a stickler!
Valera is way too high. I like him too, but he hasn’t played any real baseball and there are a bunch of guys that would make far better bets.
Yeah, I mean ahead of Austin Riley and Nolan Gorman? That’s too aggressive for me.
How close were Leody Taveras & Christian Robinson from making the list?
Mentally include Robinson. I think a quirk in one of the sample leagues bumped him. Taveras wasn’t close.
Love this Dynasty stuff Brad.
Any thoughts on how to utilize this data in a Keep 4 league (roto 5×5 12 teamer)? Would love Jimenez & Robles for example (Vlad being kept), but am still struggling with how early I’ll need to move on them. Anyone ?
Honestly, I would focus on MLB players. Vladito being the sole exception. Robles is/will be a MLB player though.
Notable exclusion: Keibert Ruiz. Get on it, dynasty drafters!
In a dynasty you can have all of the C specs. I’ll buy them a few years in – like F Mejia this year if you insist on having a building block C.
I suppose it’s true that catchers aren’t the most exciting prospects, as well as the fact that catchers tend to take awhile before they’re of great use. However, taking a chance on locking in the possible next Mauer or Posey, who produced a year or two after entering the MLB, is hard to pass up. Plus, some of us deep dynasty leaguers are stuck with the likes of some seriously insipid backstops that are burning a hole in our stat sheets… gotta hope the pain ends someday.
I usually avoid catching prospects whenever I have the option, but I’ll take a near-majors guy who’s top rated in his (not bad) system.
Nico Hoerner and Trevor Larnach look like the biggest snubs here. Keller, Madrigal and Sheffield are overrated.