…going 15th or later at their position (30th for OF, 40th for SP, and 20th for RP).

It felt like that’d all be too long for a headline. Anyway, this is a very straightforward concept that I thought of while on my way to getting breakfast tacos! I’m using the Too Early Mocks as my guide here so let’s go position-by-position and find some potential Top 5s!

STARTING PITCHER: Frankie Montas (48th)

I’ve already expressed some love for Montas this offseason so why not go to the next level here? His trajectory has really impressed me. He started as a flamethrower who could miss bats but do little else. Then in 2018 he stopped walking guys, but his Ks tanked… which of course seemed related. This year he put it all together with a 26% K rate, 6% BB rate, and he maintained his excellent HR suppression (0.75 HR/9). His season was cut short by a PED suspension, but he finished on the mound with an excellent six-inning outing on September 25th. Sign me up!

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If, at this time a year ago, I had told you that between Manny Machado and Marcus Semien, one was going to finish sixth among shortstop-eligible players in 5×5 Roto value and one was going to finish 16th, there would have been no question about which player was going to rank where. But all of us (except for the most prescient) would have been wrong. Semien trailed only Alex Bregman, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, Ketel Marte and Jonathan Villar, while Machado — who played in all but six of the Padres’ games — amassed less value than either Elvis Andrus or Amed Rosario.
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I’m putting a little star next to these 8 arms who went 300 or later in the Too Early Mocks.

Anthony DeSclafani, CIN | Pick 301

Amped his velo to 94.7 mph and generated a career-best 24% K rate that helped him outrun a hideous 1.6 HR/9 and still post a respectable 3.89 ERA. Home runs have always been part of his profile even with a juiced ball so it’s unlikely that he magically posts a league average or better rate but imagine if he can just cut it to 1.2-1.3 in 2020. A mid-3.00s ERA could be in play.

Aaron Civale, CLE | Pick 309

I don’t want to get too annoying mentioning him as I did discuss him in this piece back in September, but I’ll give him another plug here. Not only do I think Civale himself is solid with a useful 5-pitch arsenal, but I’m also putting faith in Cleveland’s ability to develop arms. Not as good as Shane Bieber, better than Adam Plutko/Josh Tomlin.

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This year’s edition of the Fantasy Baseball Process by Tanner Bell and myself is finally completed and the e-book is now available for sale (the paper version will be available at Amazon in a few weeks). We added over 50 pages of new material (link to list), cut out some info we felt was not needed, and included the historic standings and Standing Gains Points formulas to help with planning the 2020 season.

Before I move along to some of the highlights, I’d like to thank Dylan Higgins for the editing, Jared Cross for the Steamer projections, Clay Link for the introduction, Rob Silver for giving it a read over, and especially Tanner for hours and hours spent grinding through all the new changes.
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I decided to cut my OF rankings at 60 for this list, but let me be clear that there were another 15 or so who could’ve taken those last 4-5 spots. It’s definitely a mid-to-late round glob of talent, one of several that develops in the OF pool, including a power glob I highlight starting just after #30.

Other 2020 Rankings:

• SP
• C
• 1B
• 2B
• SS
• 3B

Think I missed someone who is a surefire top 60? Make your case in the comments below. I’m also curious if you have a strong preference with those top 3, who I seem to change my opinion on every other day lately.
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11/04/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @wagner13454 – Dusty Wagner, guest & writer at ArbourPro

INTERVIEW WITH DUSTY

• Playing NFBC leagues (learning curve, FAAB, draft/ADP, etc…)

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Some of the best draft day values can be injured arms who missed all or most of the previous season, taking them off the radar of many fantasy mangers. Some of these guys will fly up draft boards with a strong spring, but others will remain afterthoughts throughout draft season. Here are 10 injured arms to keep in mind for 2020:

Lance McCullers Jr. | Tommy John surgery (Nov ’18)

By having his TJ in November of 2018, McCullers will get the extended 16-month recovery time before returning. This will give him a chance at a full season in 2020, though it’s worth noting that his MLB-high is 128.3 innings so he has to show that he can make it through a full 30 starts in the first place. His #TooEarlyMock (TEM) price was 253 on average (71st among SPs), but it will rise quite a bit with a healthy spring. McCullers is a great target for early drafters on price alone.

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10/29/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host

2020 OUTFIELDER DISCUSSION

• Top 25
  • The Top 4 (5:00)
  • Rest of the Top 10 (7:45)
  • Charlie Blackmon/Starling Marte (8:20)
  • Eloy Jiménez (9:25)
  • Victor Robles (10:27)
  • Ketel Marte (11:30)
  • Whit Merrifield (14:50)
  • Austin Meadows (15:55)
  • Notable Omissions (17:48)
    • Marcell Ozuna (18:01)
    • Andrew Benintendi (18:48, 22:18)

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10/23/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Game 1 review
• David Ross to manage CHC

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The hot corner definitely carries some depth with some major names checking in a lot lower than you might expect. There is a lot of multi-eligibility at the position, though, so you could feasibly roster several 3B and put them elsewhere on your roster.

Other 2020 Rankings:

• SP
• C
• 1B
• 2B
• SS

Let me know what you think in the comments.
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