Behind The Scenes Of A H2H Matchup

We’re through 16 periods of the inaugural Tout Wars Champions league. It uses a H2H format in which teams earn a win for the week if they win more categories than their opponent. Sadly, my season hasn’t exactly gone as hoped. I originally used an extreme and risky draft strategy that saw me dump three categories, and it’s been challenging to succeed with it given that my top two picks have been complete busts (Garrett Crochet and Cal Raleigh), which has resulted in my current 11th place standing. Yuck!

However, I just finished possibly the most strategic matchup I’ve competed in so far and thought it would be worthwhile to share.

As a reminder, I dumped batting average (more like ignored), stolen bases, and saves on draft day. That meant I focused on home run hitters and a strong starting pitcher staff, including drafting two relief-eligible pitchers that were actually starters to fill my two RP slots. The expectation was that I would win HR, RBI, and R, along with W and K every week. That’s already five wins, and then I would just have to win one of the three ratio categories to earn a win for the week. Without having to pay for closers or speed, I figured this was a smart strategy and should net me a top three record. Of course, your players have to actually perform up to projections for that to happen, or a disappointing season is going to ensure.

With the background out of the way, let’s get to the last matchup. It was an extended period as it began with one game on the Thursday after the All-Star Game and didn’t end until this past Sunday. So rather than a seven day period, this one was 11 days.

Early into the matchup, my opponent got strong pitching performances that left him with a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP. Over an entire period with 10+ starts, it would be difficult to compete with a sub-3.00 ERA and nearly impossible to overtake a sub-1.00 WHIP. At this point, I was already well ahead in both wins and strikeouts and well behind in the ratios. Tack on a couple of saves, and within just days, my opponent was winning three of the five pitching categories. With little chance of ultimately overtaking me in W and K, he began to bench the majority of his starts, with the occasional start here and there from his studs. With the ratios essentially banked, he locked in those three wins and there wasn’t much I could do about it.

That put me in a tough spot. While I was going to still try to beat him in the pitching ratios by being selective about my starts, I knew deep down that my only real chances to win the week was to win four of the five hitting categories. At the time, my hitting was performing well, as I had pulled out nice leads in HR, RBI, and R. He’s going to make me win batting average or steals to earn a win for the week?!

Heading into the period, my season batting average was predictably last in the league at just .236, while I was also last in steals with just less than half the team in 11th place! Winning either of those categories was either going to be a challenge, or require a miracle. I wasn’t optimistic. But I absolutely needed to do whatever I can to win the week or my chances of sticking in the league would essentially be flushed down the toilet (only the top 6 are invited back to compete next year).

Obviously, there wasn’t much I could do for batting average. I tried to start and bench players based on the opposing pitcher’s quality and handedness and my player’s batting average ability, but when dealing with tiny samples sizes such as one game, it’s a total crapshoot.

So instead, I set my eyes on trying to win steals. Incredibly, I was only down by a steal or two in the middle of the period, so I thought I had a real shot at winning, or at least tying, with some savvy roster management.

I began my efforts last Wednesday by picking up Jacob Young. Not only was he a stolen base threat, but he was also playing in Colorado, so it looked like an ideal situation to stuff my stat totals. My excitement was quickly dashed when lineups were posted and he wasn’t starting. He didn’t even get into the game at all, so Operation Win Steals was off to a frustrating start.

The following day I went all in. I was lucky enough to have some middling players to drop to really load up on stolen base potential and ended up picking up and starting the thrilling trio of Luke Keaschall, Brewer Hicklen, and Tyler Tolbert. Naturally, Hicklen didn’t start, making for another wasted pickup. I knew Tolbert only starts against lefties and he wouldn’t be starting, but pinch runs often and frequently attempts a steal when he does. Sure enough, he never even came to the plate, but did steal a precious base. Unfortunately, I didn’t make any gains in the category because one of my opponent’s pickups also swiped a bag.

The next day, I left Keaschall in my lineup, and this time he didn’t start, while my pickup of the day, Cooper Pratt, didn’t start either. I was getting super annoyed about all these hitters not playing when they are supposed to be starters. Luckily, Keaschall did eventually make it into the game and stole a base, while Tolbert failed to even though he started that day. Keschall’s steal would have brought me even with my opponent in steals, except that his Willson Contreras decided it was the perfect time to steal his third base of the season! So I remained down a steal with two days of games left.

On Saturday, the wait was finally over for the Marlins to face a left-hander. That meant that Esteury Ruiz would finally get a start, and he was precisely the player I was dying to get into my starting lineup. So I picked him up and he rewarded my enthusiasm with two steals, putting me in the lead by one.

Incredibly, that lead would stick as my opponent’s team failed to steal a single base between Saturday and Sunday, and my team didn’t steal another base either. So after all that, I ended up winning the week 6-4 by winning steals for just the second time (I totally forgot I had won steals once before).

The crazy thing is that I lost batting average .210 to .205. All my team needed to do is hit .211 for the week, and I would have won that category! That .210 mark may have been the lowest winning weekly batting average so far in the league.

So there you have it, a thrilling conclusion to a very strategic week. In a shallow H2H league like this, it’s a reminder that it’s not difficult to pivot strategies from week-to-week, or even mid-week during a matchup.