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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of six more starters. You can find the other editions here:

• Part 1: Houck, Akin, Dunn, Schmidt
• Part 2: Webb, Kremer, Stripling, Richards
• Part 3: Quintana, Minor, Hill, Peralta, Morejon
• Part 4: Margevicius, Chatwood, Plutko, Marquez, Lucchesi, Balazovic, Abbot
• Part 5: Lodolo, Castellani, Bailey, Chirinos, Rodon, Cody, Cobb, Hamels
• Part 6: Perez, Matz, Fiers, Porcello, Gray, Lynch
• Part 7: McClanahan, Jefferies, Sandoval, Lester, Voth, Velasquez
• Part 8: McKay, Akin, Gibson, Cueto, Archer, Honeywell, Fleming
• Part 8: Barria, Loaisiga, Wood, DeSclafani, Freeland, Martin,
• Part 9: Wood (again), Dobnak, Suter, Archer, Senzatela, Brault, Whitley, Kelly
• Part 10: Wilson, Arihara, Wacha, Wright, Duffy, Mills
• Part 11: Manning, Pivetta, Bubic, Shoemaker, Brubaker, Gomber
• Part 12: Houser, Patiño, Gilbert, Ponce de Leon, Wainwright, Martinez
• Part 13: Gray, Weaver, Happ, Severino, Syndergaard, Sale, Lorenzen, Mikolas

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Free Agents

• Mike Foltynewicz threw for teams.

Mike Foltynewicz threw for teams in Atlanta today. Was at 90-92 but looked to be in fine shape.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 29, 2021

Great, 90 to 92, just what he was throwing last season when he was cut. Over his career, he’s sat at over 95.5 mph and only has a 4.33 ERA. Continue to ignore.

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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of eight more starters. You can find the other editions here:

• Part 1: Houck, Akin, Dunn, Schmidt
• Part 2: Webb, Kremer, Stripling, Richards
• Part 3: Quintana, Minor, Hill, Peralta, Morejon
• Part 4: Margevicius, Chatwood, Plutko, Marquez, Lucchesi, Balazovic, Abbot
• Part 5: Lodolo, Castellani, Bailey, Chirinos, Rodon, Cody, Cobb, Hamels
• Part 6: Perez, Matz, Fiers, Porcello, Gray, Lynch
• Part 7: McClanahan, Jefferies, Sandoval, Lester, Voth, Velasquez
• Part 8: Barria, Loaisiga, Wood, DeSclafani, Freeland, Martin,
• Part 9: Wood (again), Dobnak, Suter, Archer, Senzatela, Brault, Whitley, Kelly
• Part 10: Wilson, Arihara, Wacha, Wright, Duffy, Mills
• Part 11: Manning, Pivetta, Bubic, Shoemaker, Brubaker, Gomber
• Part 12: Houser, Patiño, Gilbert, Ponce de Leon, Wainwright, Martinez
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This fable is inspired by Eric Hosmer and Dansby Swanson. In my last article, I noticed both improved in some of their StatCast metrics. So, I wondered how much should the values regress? After wasting more time than I’ll admit roaming for the answers, I remembered I already discovered the answers when creating my StatCast projections. Magically the season weightings work out to simply splitting the difference between 2019 and 2020 value. Normally, the most recent season would carry more weight, but with 2020’s limited sample, the two StatCast metrics (launch angle and max exit velocity) carry equal weight. Now, I can continue drudging through life. The end.

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In 2019, I participated in AL LABR and struggled to stay out of the cellar. Coming out of the auction, I thought I would accumulate too many stolen bases but could trade one of Mallex Smith or Dee Strange-Gordon. I ran into the simple problem, they played themselves out of their jobs. From that point forward, I told myself “I will no longer rely on sh##ty baseball players”. Talent declines during a draft, but I don’t want a core piece of any team demoted to the bench or the minors. I’m going to examine a few hitters drafted in the first 10 rounds and fall into this playing time trap.

Looking back at Smith and Gordon, I should have had an inkling that they’d disappoint. Going into the season, Steamer projected Smith for a .695 OPS and Gordon for a .664. For the 2020 edition of The Process (after the fact research), I researched the production level needed to keep a hitter in a lineup. Depending on the player’s defensive ability and position, the average production level that gets a hitter demoted is between .600 OPS and .650 OPS with the average being around .635 OPS. The following chart shows the chances a player’s in-season OPS may drop to knowing their projected OPS.
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American League

Astros

• Myles Straw is set to be the centerfielder.

The Astros will make Straw win the job in spring training, but good luck identifying a legitimate challenger on the current roster.
…
He’s never hit for power, but there’s a scenario in which he gets on base enough to make it work. And if he does get on base, he’s got the potential to rack up stolen bases.

Neither of the Astros’ corner outfielders, Brantley and Kyle Tucker, are particularly strong defenders, so a good defensive center fielder is particularly important on their roster.

Straw is an “end-of-a-draft” dart throw for stolen bases. In 2018, he stole 72 over three different levels. The stolen base potential is legit but he’s projected for a replacement level ~.650 OPS. Most hitters will head to the bench producing at such a level. While his defense may give him a little more leeway and the roster is set, he’s far from a sure bet.
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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of six more starters. You can find the other editions here:

• Part 1: Houck, Akin, Dunn, Schmidt
• Part 2: Webb, Kremer, Stripling, Richards
• Part 3: Quintana, Minor, Hill, Peralta, Morejon
• Part 4: Margevicius, Chatwood, Plutko, Marquez, Lucchesi, Balazovic, Abbot
• Part 5: Lodolo, Castellani, Bailey, Chirinos, Rodon, Cody, Cobb, Hamels
• Part 6: Perez, Matz, Fiers, Porcello, Gray, Lynch
• Part 7: McClanahan, Jefferies, Sandoval, Lester, Voth, Velasquez
• Part 8: Barria, Loaisiga, Wood, DeSclafani, Freeland, Martin,
• Part 9: Wood (again), Dobnak, Suter, Archer, Senzatela, Brault, Whitley, Kelly
• Part 10: Wilson, Arihara, Wacha, Wright, Duffy, Mills
• Part 11: Manning, Pivetta, Bubic, Shoemaker, Brubaker, Gomber
  Read the rest of this entry »

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