Waiver Wire Targets: Week 3

It seems like it will be a calm bidding week. The toughest group to rank were the starters. Almost all of them have mixed results from a small sample. It’s tough to get a read in the positive or negative direction, but I think a couple of gems are still available. If any manager has extra time this week, they need to spend it on evaluating these pitchers.

In the following article, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

• Wilson Ramos: I’m putting him at the top for the simple reason, he needs to be owned in all leagues. After the first half dozen catchers, he the next in line. It’s impossible to get a 1.017 OPS and 6 HR from a catcher.

• Cedric Mullins: Has led off every game while hitting .396/.458/.585 with two steals.

• Randal Grichuk: Hitting .283/.346/.435 and batting cleanup for the Blue Jays.

• Travis Shaw: He’s hitting the ball hard (3 HR, .512 SLG) with his strikeout rate at a three-year low.

• Colin Moran: He’s still knocking the snout out of the ball (3 HR, .563 SLG) so continue to roster.

• Jurickson Profar: He’s started 11 straight games, played three positions (1B, 2B, OF), stole three bases, and is posting a .765 OPS.

• Avisaíl García: With Cain and Yelich hurt, Garcia is taking advantage of the extra playing time (.745 OPS, 2 HR, 1 SB).

• Bryan Reynolds: Boringly productive while hitting at the top of the lineup.

• Asdrúbal Cabrera: The .209 AVG may scare off some people, but it’s being fueled by a .194 BABIP. His strikeout rate is down 7% point and his walk rate is up 7% points. On top of that, he’s Barreling the ball at a career-high 8% rate. BABIP hidden breakout.

• Robbie Grossman: League dependent. Both his strikeouts and walks are up, so he’s fine in an OBP or points league. He’s still contributing some in Roto with one homer and two steals.

• Jed Lowrie: He’s finally healthy (.360/.439/.560) and hitting in the top third of Oaklands’ lineup.

• Andrelton Simmons: Has been on fire (.355/.474/.452) but currently on the COVID-IL.

• Adam Frazier: Leading off every day and hitting .300/.410/.480.

• Phillip Evans: I ranked Evans over McKinstry for the simple reason that once everyone is healthy, it’ll be easier for Evans to find playing time in Pittsburgh. Evans is hitting about the same (1.001 OPS, 3 HR).

• Zach McKinstry: The hardest hitter to rank. He’s started 10 of 11 games with Betts, Bellinger, and Pollock missing time. He’s hitting a reasonable .326/.348/.651 (.344 BABIP). So can he keep it up or will the league find his weakness? Does he go to the bench once every healthy? Add, but know the production may come to a crashing halt.

• Joey Wendle: He’s hitting for average again (.326) and is starting against all righties. The problem is that four of the six starters the Rays face next week are lefties.

• Adam Duvall: He’s hit four homers so far this season and might go a few weeks before hitting any more. His profile has changed a bit with a 15% point increase in his Pull% (i.e. good) and a 5% K% jump (i.e. bad).

• Renato Núñez: The defensive liability will have the chance for full-time at-bats with Miguel Cabrera out. He’s showing off his power with 2 HR so far.

• Josh Harrison: He’s finally off the COVID-IL and has started five straight games at second base.

• José Marmolejos: He has been hitting great (.899 OPS), but his playing time is in jeopardy. He’s already sitting against lefties. Also, Kyle Lewis is coming off the IL and Jarred Kelenic should be promoted any day now. Possibly add for a week as a bench bat and see if the playing time clears up.

• Adolis Garcia: A 28-year-old power-speed threat in AAA in 2019 with 32 HR and 14 SB. We’ll see if he stays up once David Dahl gets healthy.

• Tucker Barnhart: He has a .370 AVG fueled by a .643 BABIP,  not from an improved strikeout rate going from 26% to 41%. Regression going to come hard and fast.

• Roberto Pérez, Dom Nuñez, Jacob Stallings: Replacement level catchers.

• Maikel Franco: I don’t follow the increased demand or the ownership to start with. In leagues where every starter is rostered, I guess he’s fine.

• Josh Palacios: He’s a fill-in bat with 12 HR/12 SB upside while Hernandez and Gurriel are on the IL.

• Brandon Crawford: I guess some owners forgot he’s still Brandon Crawford and they are focusing on the three home runs he’s hit.

• Tim Locastro: Unknown value right now as he may be headed to the IL with a dislocated finger. I’d rank him ahead of Evans if healthy.

• Jo Adell: I know the Angels are a mess but they aren’t promoting Adell. They’ve stated all along they want him to succeed against AAA hitting so if any player is to be added, it’s Brandon Marsh.

Starters

• Jakob Junis: With the addition of his new cutter, he’s been lights out (11.3 K/9, 0.92 WHIP, 1.50 ERA). Add while he’s still available.

• Alex Cobb: His BABIP driven 4.63 ERA is hiding an amazing breakout (13.1 K/9, 1.20 WHIP, 57 GB%). The only downside is that he’s in the Angels’ six-man rotation.

• Michael Fulmer: It’s time to take a shot. His fastball velocity is up over 2 mph from last season. He’s moved from throwing his fastballs (~10% SwStr%) as much and is throwing his change (11% SwStr%) and slider (17% SwStr%) more. Groundball rate up to 51%. This is what a breakout looks like.

• Dane Dunning: Is he 1.00 ERA good, no. He is a decent arm with a career 3.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9.

• Huascar Ynoa: After two great starts, the Cubs lit him up for three home runs in four innings. His stats still stand out (11.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 53% GB%) so add cheaply this week.

• Wade Miley: He hasn’t allowed a run yet and has his walks down (1.6 BB/9). His Sunday start will determine a lot of his value and demand going forward.

• Anthony DeSclafani: He’s made some minor pitch mix changes and has his groundball rate up to 53% (previous high was 45%). He looks to have shaken off his troubles from 2020 and could be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher.

• JT Brubaker: He hasn’t made any changes, but he has dropped his ERA over three points to 1.76. Maybe his career line of 4.16 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9 is a decent place to start when valuing him.

• Danny Duffy: Added 1.5 mph and 75 rpm to his fastball from his first to his second start. The bump might improve his talent to a 4.00 ERA pitcher rather than the 4.50+ ERA pitcher of the past few seasons.

• Luke Weaver: After a rough start to the season, he’s turned things around. His strikeouts are up using K%. The disconnect between K% and K/9 is because his walks are way down (0.7 BB/9). The runs are coming from the long ball (2.1 HR/9), but that’s expected with a 25% GB%.

• David Peterson: He’s interesting and at least should be on someone’s bench. The 6.30 ERA is inflated by a 2.7 HR/9. Historically, he’s been a groundball pitcher, so the home runs should drop.

• Johnny Cueto: Out with a lat injury but the drop in his walk rate to 1.8 BB/9 has him in early-career form.

• Adrian Houser: He’s performing as expected (65% GB%, 6.3 K/9), but he needs to get his walks under control (4.4 BB/9).

• Aaron Sanchez: He’s somehow getting by with a fastball that has lost 2.5 mph. He’s doing it by walking fewer batters (2.5 BB/9) and creating groundballs again (56%). Seems like a streaming option for two-start weeks or versus weak opponents.

• Josh Fleming: Allowed one run over four innings in his first start. His groundball rate was still near 65%. The main question surrounding him is if he’ll remain in the rotation.

• Taylor Widener: His 1.59 ERA is nice, but it’s backed by a minuscule 5.8 K/9 over 17 innings. He showed more strikeout promise in the minors (9.8 K/9 in 2019 AAA), but the drop might be from his velocity being down 1.4 mph.

• Rich Hill: Home runs have slowed him down, but he should end up being a ~4.00 ERA by the season’s end.

• Nick Pivetta: His velocity is up over 2 mph and the 3.27 ERA looks nice. Then the 5.7 BB/9 comes into focus with his ERA estimators closer to 5.00. Such a mixed bag.

• Alex Wood: There is no way to know how he’ll perform coming off the IL. We’ll find out on Sunday when he makes his first start.

• Ryan Weathers: He’s making the transition from the bullpen to starting going just under four innings in his last start.

• Joe Ross: He hasn’t allowed a run in 11 innings of work. He hasn’t changed much though. He’s throwing a few more sinkers to up his groundball rate to 50%. He’s also the pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 in the previous three seasons.

• Kyle Gibson: His walk and strikeout rate are in line with previous seasons when his ERA was near 5.00 and a 1.50 WHIP. Pass.

• Jon Gray: He’s limited hard contact so far (0.6 HR/9, .238 BABIP), but his walks are up to a career-high (4.0 BB/9).

• Mike Foltynewicz: His velocity is back up but so are the home runs (2.8 HR/9) and walks (3.9 HR/9). It’s tough to get excited about a pitcher who has one sub-4.00 season back in 2018.

• Bruce Zimmermann: It’s been a blah season so far with no standout performances. Add someone else.

• John Gant: His start on Sunday will hopefully shed some light on talent this season. The 3.00 ERA is fine, but six walks in nine innings hurts. And he’s lost 3 mph on his fastball. Pass.

• Chase Anderson: A .125 BABIP has kept his ERA at 4.00. His ERA estimators are around 6.00 with his fastball down 1 mph.

• Logan Gilbert: I think it’ll be a while before he’s promoted. His timeline could be moved up with the Mariners leading the AL West.

• Nick Neidert: So far in 17 MLB innings, he’s walked 11 batters, stuck out 10, and allowed nine runs.

Closers: Saves based rankings

• Emmanuel Clase: Great pitcher who is most likely the closer.

• Yimi García: Good pitcher who is the closer.

• Kendall Graveman: Good pitcher who is the closer.

• Lou Trivino: OK pitcher with the job.

• Rafael Dolis: Default closer with everyone else hurt.

• Giovanny Gallegos: Great picher next in line for Saves.

• Corey Knebel: Great pitcher next in line for Saves.

• Dylan Floro: Good pitcher next in line for Saves.

• José Alvarado: Great pitcher possibly next in line for Saves.

• Connor Brogdon: Great pitcher possibly next in line for Saves

• Tyler Rogers: OK pitcher next in line for Saves.

• Hansel Robles: OK pitcher who needs two pitchers to falter to get Saves.

• Garrett Whitlock: A possibly great pitcher who is not in the Saves picture yet.

• Junior Guerra: A below-average reliever who hasn’t allowed a run yet.

• Sean Newcomb: On the IL but has been good as a reliever.

• Brent Honeywell Jr.: Used once for a couple of innings. The comeback story is better than his fantasy relevance.