Today’s article has been a couple of weeks in the making. I know it came up when one of my co-managers, Fred Zinkie, asked how much a pitcher’s performance changes if they immediately reface the same team. I don’t remember the pitcher or team involved but I didn’t know the answer so I’d find it out. The obvious answer is sure, a pitcher will be worse. It makes sense that the team that just faced him will have some familiarity. Two questions do come up though. First, how much does the pitcher’s performance degrade in the second matchup? Next, if there is a familiarity factor, how long does it take to go away? After examining the data, a small factor exists and quickly disappears.

Simply, this is one of the noisiest, possibly biased studies I’ve ever worked on. First, a starter usually doesn’t see a team right away since schedules have quite a bit of variation in them. This limits the sample size. Second, the data is clumped at five-day multiples because the starters need rest. I begged for a possible solution on Twitter but no solution was found. Even with the limitations, I forged ahead with some workable results. Read the rest of this entry »

A few guys I like (Heredia, Kim, and Webb) are available, but it seemed like catchers dominated this week’s drops. Additionally, it’s mainly hitters who no long have playing time.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report. Read the rest of this entry »

7:33	Jeff Zimmerman:

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For once, I’m more interested in the available starters compared to the hitters. Some interesting rookie pitchers (e.g. Poteet, Peacock, Davidson, Bubic) have emerged. While each has flaws, it’s likely one or two will emerge as a must-start arm.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• Phil Gosselin (vs LHP) and Kean Wong (v RHP) are in a second base platoon.

• Juan Lagares (.558) has started 13 of 14 games in center field.

• If promoted, Jo Adell will need to stick in the majors.

As general manager Perry Minasian said last week, the Angels want Adell to stick in the Majors when they bring him up, instead of having to shuttle him between Triple-A and the big leagues.

To get the call, he’ll either be hitting or the Angels’ management will have given up on the season.

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Today’s mini-study is brought to you by Austin Gomber and Tarik Skubal. Both struggled to start the season with April ERA’s over 6.00, but I noticed both have righted the ship with May ERA’s near 3.00. Excessive walks caused their early struggles but both got them under control.

With the regression always looming, I wondered how much of the May gains should be given back in June. After looking through the data, not as much as I expected. Read the rest of this entry »

This week’s theme seems to be closers. Several full and part-time closers hit the waiver wire. While they all have a wart or two, a team scavenging for Saves could find a few more offers on the waiver wire.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve got a full weekend planned. Besides for a few hours today, I’m not going to have time expound this or the waiver wire article. I’ll see if I can sneak away for Sunday’s chat while still taking care of my own teams. So for this article, I didn’t add many player stats and just focused on major changes. I’m now going to try to at least get a Waiver Wire rankings out.

American League

Angels

• Justin Upton has hit leadoff in the last four games.

• David Fletcher is batting ninth.

• Drew Butera has started five of the last seven games at catcher.

• Juan Lagaras is playing everyday and hitting in the middle of the lineup.

• Jo Adell is making strides to get promoted.

Angels GM Perry Minasian on minor league slugger Jo Adell "He's making some strides. He's not there yet."

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) May 26, 2021

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Today, I’m going to take a stab to answer the simple question:

“Do hitters perform better with regular at-bats?”

While the question is simple, finding an acceptable answer is not so easy. While my final approach is far from “perfect”, it verifies the statement is true to a small extent.

The concept behind the rule-of-thumb is that with regular at-bats, a hitter can get into a groove and perform better. Usually, the idea references a hitter in a platoon.

Besides being in a platoon, he could be in the National League and used primarily as a pinch hitter. Anyone going from mainly being a pinch hitter to a full-time role will no longer occur the pinch hitter penalty.
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There isn’t really an overlying theme for this week expect it seems many managers are just cleaning up their rosters of disappointing players. Since these unproductive players are being dropped, the list is barren of talent. Normally, I start with the same tought, but I end up finding a few hidden gems. Tauchman is the only one I might consider adding. I do spend some time in the append defining Trailing Drops and how it could drag down teams.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report. Read the rest of this entry »