Today’s mini-study is inspired by Dane Dunning. He was a waiver-wire option for me in several leagues this past week. With no consideration to his talent (4.71 ERA, 3.38 xFIP), I was not interested because he was averaging just 4.6 innings per start and had only reached the five innings needed for a Win in half his starts. Those seemed too low for any chance for a Win. It got me wondering if a possible cliff exists somewhere with how far a pitcher goes into a start that just eliminates their Win chances. Instead, I found nothing.

First off, I know many factors are relevant for a pitcher to get a Win and most he has no control over. His surrounding cast must score more runs than the other team. Also, they have to field balls in play to get outs while limiting errors. Also, the bullpen must be decent enough to hold a lead. And then there is the opposing team’s starter, hitters, and bullpen. The deal is that none of the preceding factors matter if the starter doesn’t consistently throw five innings. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• Taylor Ward (.932 OPS over the last two weeks) has hit third in four straight games.

• Luis Rengifo (.559 OPS) has started four straight.

• Juan Lagares (.575 OPS) has started eight of nine games.
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It’s a unique player list this week. For the hitters, almost all of them are hurt or in a part-time role. As for the starters (and several relievers), they were highly drafted disappointments who should have been dropped weeks again if their rostering cost wasn’t so high. All the moves made sense. I might have to drop the weekly drop total down one or two notches next time to focus on some tougher cuts.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report. Read the rest of this entry »

7:32	Jeff Zimmerman:

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For this week, fantasy managers should find hitting replacements for injured or demoted players and then focus their attention on the starting pitching replacements. Several pitchers are improving while a couple more have new roles. Rarely do this many starters pop-up mid-season so roster some now. Finally, it’s not a week to speculate on Saves. No bullpens are in flux, so any Sunday blowups will be the focus.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Athletics

• Matt Chapman is finally getting comfortable with his new hip.

What’s led to this sudden outburst from Chapman? Elvis Andrus said after Friday’s game that Chapman seemed more relaxed, and he agreed. But it also sounds like he’s finally trusting his surgically-repaired hip, which is something he knew heading into this season could take a while.

“The biggest thing, we’re just trying to find ways to get my back hip to fire a little bit better into the zone,” Chapman said. “Coming off surgery, it always takes time to get that trust and that feel back. Everybody I’ve talked to that’s had that surgery has said that it just took a little bit of time for them to get back to feeling the way that they’re accustomed to feeling. Some guys said that they felt like they’re in somebody else’s body for the first year. I wouldn’t (say) that I feel like I’m in somebody else’s body, but I definitely feel like I’m still getting that strength back and that trust back. It’s only been eight months since I had surgery so I think I gotta keep that in perspective and just find ways to help the team.”

Chapman’s OPS by month (.821 for his career)
April: .694
May: .618
June: .873
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American League

Angels

• José Iglesias(.711 OPS) has hit fifth for four straight games.

• Max Stassi (1.013 OPS) has hit third for three straight.
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While the hitters being dropped were hurt or replacement level, there were a couple of interesting starters on the waiver wire who could be an adjustment away from being productive.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report. Read the rest of this entry »

7:32	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

During drafts, I try to target well-rounded hitters who aren’t one-trick ponies. The reason is that it’s easier to find balanced hitters to replace them when there is an injury. This week’s waiver wire is full of those well-rounded hitter replacements. As for pitchers, it’s another week of potential darts. who will be must starts in a week or two? The key is figuring out who differentiates themselves.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »