While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to see how much FAAB everyone has left with two major rookie callups.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• Jonathan Villar is no longer leading off but hitting in the bottom half of the lineup.

• Michael Stefanic (.320/.410/.399, 1 HR, 3 SB in 210 AAA PA, 32 MLB PA) has started in eight of 10 games since being recalled. In his last two games, he has hit leadoff.

• Luis Rengifo (.253/.296/.387, 5 HR, 3 SB) has started 26 straight games.

• Since being recalled from AAA, Jo Adell (.258/.289/.409, 3 HR, 2 SB) is batting fifth.

Astros

• Jeremy Peña (.885 OPS vs LHP, .721 OPS vs RHP) is batting at the bottom of the lineup against righties.

• Jose Siri (.551 OPS), Chas McCormick (.710 OPS), J.J. Matijevic (.584 OPS), and Mauricio Dubón (.559 OPS) are splitting time at one spot.

• Aledmys Díaz (.237/.294/.376) has started in eight of the last nine games.

Athletics

• Vimael Machín (.258/.294/.355, 1 HR, 0 SB, 34 PA) has leadoff in five of the last six games. He sat against a lefty.

• Skye Bolt (.419 OPS, 1 HR, 1 SB) has started in 12 of the last 13 games.

• Since Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트 was traded to the Rays, Seth Brown (.218/.273/.406, 10 HR, 7 SB) has started seven straight batting third or fourth.

Blue Jays

• Steady.

• Cavan Biggio has started in two of the last seven games.

Guardians

• Steady.

• Nolan Jones (.333/.481/.571) has started in seven of eight games, all in the outfield while batting sixth or seventh.

• Owen Miller (.669 OPS, 4 HR, 1 SB) has snuck his way into eight of the last 11 lineups.

Mariners

• After playing nine straight, Dylan Moore (.192/.342/.377, 5 HR, 11 SB) has sat in two of the last four games.

Orioles

• Consistent since Ramón Urías came off the IL.

Rangers

• Josh H. Smith (vs RHP) and Charlie Culberson (vs LHP) are in a platoon.

• Leody Taveras (.338/.359/.500, 2 HR, 4 SB) has moved up to the sixth or seventh spot.

Rays

• Taylor Walls (.172/.251/.283, 4 HR, 6 SB) has started five straight at shortstop.

• Jonathan Aranda (vs RHP) and Yu Chang (vs LHP) are in a second-base platoon.

Red Sox

• Steady when healthy.

• Jarren Duran (vs RHP) and Rob Refsnyder (vs LHP) are in a center field platoon.

Royals

• There is no good way to approach this lineup with 10 players on the restricted list, the All-Star break coming up, and several players likely to be traded.

Tigers

• What a mess to untangle.

• Akil Baddoo (.425 OPS, 1 HR, 1 SB, 66 PA) has started three straight in left field, one against a lefty.

• Jonathan Schoop (.358/.393/.396 in July) is now hitting in the middle of the lineup.

Twins

• Another mess.

• The confusion is that four players, Luis Arraez (.861 OPS), Jose Miranda (.757 OPS), Gio Urshela (.713 OPS), Alex Kirilloff (.719 OPS), are vying for time from two and a half spots, first, third, and DH (Buxton starts here half the time). To make it even worse, Miguel Sanó is expected off the IL soon.

White Sox

• Josh Harrison has started eight of nine games while hitting .278/.366/.472 with 1 HR in July.

• Seby Zavala (.303/.349/.474, 2 HR, 0 SB) has started seven of the last ten at short.

Yankees

• The nine-man hitter rotation has now moved to more of an 11-man rotation. Marwin Gonzalez (.697 OPS) is playing some outfield but mainly shortstop with Isiah Kiner-Falefa (.647 OPS) struggling. Also, Matt Carpenter (.338/.451/.868, 11 HR) is playing some outfield and DH with Joey Gallow and Aaron Hicks sitting when Carpenter plays.

National League

Braves

• Steady.

• Orlando Arcia (vs LHP) and Robinson Canó (vs RHP) are in a second base platoon.

• Eddie Rosario (.434 OPS) and Adam Duvall (.652 OPS) are splitting time in left field.

Brewers

• Lots of movement based on pitcher handedness, but generally the same players.

• Mike Brosseau (vs LHP) and Jace Peterson (vs RHP) are still in a platoon.

Cardinals

• Historically, it has been a steady lineup, but it just got back Tyler O’Neill and Brendan Donovan. I’d come back in a couple of days to see how it shakes out.

• Andrew Knizner (.205/.297/.260, 1 HR) has started seven of the last 10 games at catcher.

Cubs

• Christopher Morel is now batting ninth or on the bench against righties. I’m not sure why since he has .622 OPS vs LHP and a .895 OPS vs RHP. Rafael Ortega (.719 OPS vs RHP, .551 vs LHP) leads off against righties.

• Alfonso Rivas (.236/.315/.325, 3 HR, 3 SB) is starting against all righties.

• Nico Hoerner (.771 OPS, 5 HR, 8 SB) is locked into batting fifth or sixth.

Diamondbacks

• Josh Rojas (.758 OPS, 5 HR, 7 SB) has hit first or second over the last six games.

• Daulton Varsho (.715 OPS, 12 HR, 5 SB, 4 CS) has started in eight of the last 10 games and hasn’t caught since June 9th.

Dodgers

• Steady with the only change being Jake Lamb and Trayce Thompson splitting time in left field.

Giants

• A ton of platoons and timeshares.

• The only full-timer (11 straight starts) is David Villar (.229/.349/.400, 1 HR).

• Catcher Austin Wynns (.577 OPS, 1 HR) has started in five of the last 10 games.

Marlins

• Catcher Nick Fortes (.273/.360/.485, 3 HR, 3 SB) has started in five of the last eight games.

• Bryan De La Cruz (.209/.244/.442, 2 HR over the past month) has started seven straight.

Mets

• Steady. A couple of outfield injuries (McNeil and Marte) opened up spots for a few days but both are back now.

Nationals

• Luis García (.305/.314/.429, 2 HR, 1 SB, 4 CS) has led off in three of the last four games.

• Yadiel Hernandez (.288/.324/.470 with 2 HR over the last month) has started in 10 of the last 11 games.

• Lane Thomas (.666 OPS) and Victor Robles (.600 OPS) are splitting time in the outfield.

• Maikel Franco (.623 OPS) and Ehire Adrianza (.479 OPS) are splitting time at third base.

Padres

• Esteury Ruiz (.935 OPS, 60 SB in the minors) has started three straight since being promoted.

• Nomar Mazara (.315/.368/.426, 2 SB) has started four straight, two against lefties who he normally sits against.

Phillies

• Matt Vierling (.230/.306/.341, 3 HR, 3 SB) has started five straight in center.

• Darick Hall (.250/.276/.536, 4 HR) has started 10 straight games as the DH and batting cleanup.

Pirates

• This lineup is in major flux with several guys coming off the IL, going on the IL, and being demoted. To me, it looks like the team is trying to showcase several veterans (Gamel, Newman, VanMeter, Marisnick) for trades.

• Jason Delay (.220/.286/.305 in AAA, .296/.321/.407 in the majors) has caught seven of the last 10 games.

Reds

• Tyler Naquin (.244/.306/.435, 6 HR, 3 SB) only faces lefties.

• Nick Senzel (.262/.318/.332, 3 HR, 5 SB) has just started in seven of the last 10 games.

Rockies

• José Iglesias (.302/.342/.407, 3 HR, 2 SB) has hit second for three straight days.

• Yonathan Daza (.296/.348/.343, 0 HR, 0 SB) has only started in six of the last 10 games.

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

7:31	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• Jonathan Villar (.225/.273/.320, 2 HR, 7 SB) has started four straight games while leading off and playing third base.

• Luis Rengifo (.241/.283/.388, 5 HR, 2 SB) has moved up to hitting fifth.

• Brandon Marsh (vs RHP) and Monte Harrison (vs LHP) are in a left-field platoon.

Astros

• Besides various injuries, the lineup is extremely stable.

• Jake Meyers (.302/.311/.465, 1 HR) has started 12 straight games since coming off the IL. He’s hit as high as fifth in the lineup

Athletics

• Nick Allen (.222/.300/.319, 1 HR, 1 SB) has started 13 straight games at second base and is now leading off against lefties.

• Skye Bolt (.211 OPS) has started six of seven games in center field.

• Vimael Machín (vs RHP) and Sheldon Neuse (vs LHP) are in a third base platoon.

Blue Jays

• Cavan Biggio (.749 OPS in 2022, .290/.413/.474 over the past 2 weeks) started in seven of the last eight games while leading off twice.

Guardians

• Besides dealing with injuries, steady.

Mariners

• Carlos Santana (.693 OPS, 4 HR) continues to bat fourth.

• Cal Raleigh (.244/.326/.526 with 4 HR over the last month) has moved up to batting fifth or sixth.

• Ty France (.862 OPS, 10 HR) just came off the IL and is batting second.

Orioles

• Ramón Urías (.678 OPS, 6 HR) has started two of three games at third base since coming off the IL.

• Cedric Mullins (.769 OPS vs RHP, .637 OP vs LHP) has sat against three of the last four lefties.

Rangers

• Josh H. Smith (.235/.385/.255, 0 HR, 2 SB) leads off against righties and sits against lefties.

• Four outfielders, Kole Calhoun (.698 OPS), Brad Miller (.608 OPS), Leody Taveras (.743 OPS), and Steven Duggar (.546 OPS), are splitting time at two spots.

Rays

• SNAFU

• Isaac Paredes (.254/.313/.590, 13 HR) and Harold Ramirez (.314/.361/.430, 4 HR, 3 SB) have started in 11 of the last 12 games.

• While still playing most of the time, Randy Arozarena (.735 OPS) has been slowly moving down the lineup.

Red Sox

• Franchy Cordero (.303/.395/.409, 0 HR, 3 SB over the past month) has started nine straight.

• Bobby Dalbec (vs LHP) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (vs RHP) are in a platoon.

Royals

• Michael A. Taylor (.733 OPS), Edward Olivares (.796 OPS), and Kyle Isbel (.596 OPS) are sharing two outfield spots.

• Emmanuel Rivera (vs LHP) and Nicky Lopez (vs RHP) are in a third base platoon.

• Vinnie Pasquantino (.549 OPS, 1 HR) has hit either fourth or fifth.

Tigers

• They have a ton of replacement-level players cycling through several positions.

• Robbie Grossman (.225/.315/.363, 2 HR, 1 SB since coming off the IL) has hit third or fourth in the last four games.

• Jonathan Schoop (.448/.444/.893 with 4 SB in the past week) has moved up to hitting fifth or sixth.

• Jeimer Candelario (.556 OPS) has started in just seven of the last 10 games.

Twins

• Byron Buxton (.218/.293/.552, 22) has been able to start in seven of the last eight games.

• Moving between first and third, Jose Miranda (.706 OPS) has started in nine of the last 10 games.

White Sox

• The whole gang was back together on Wednesday but there are still issues limiting the lineup’s upside.

• One of Josh Harrison (.683 OPS) and Leury García (.495 OPS) must be at second base.

• The team has four DHs, Andrew Vaughn (.800 OPS), José Abreu (.836 OPS), Eloy Jiménez (.628 OPS), and Gavin Sheets (.658 OPS), so in order to get them all in the lineup, three will end up being a defensive liability.

Yankees

• If anyone is getting the shaft in the Yankees hitter rotation, it’s Joey Gallo (.621 OPS) and Aaron Hicks (.689 OPS). Both have only started in seven of the last 10 games.

National League

Braves

• Steady with a couple of possible hiccups.

• Phil Gosselin (.553 OPS) has started in two of the last four games at second base with Orlando Arcia hitting .059/.158/.059 with 0 HR and 0 SB over the last two weeks.

• There is only one game to go off of, but Eddie Rosario (vs RHP) and Adam Duvall (vs LHP) might be in a left-field platoon.

Brewers

• Mike Brosseau (vs LHP) and Kolten Wong (vs RHP) are in a platoon.

• Jonathan Davis (.507 OPS, 3 SB) has started six straight in center field with Tyrone Taylor on the IL.

• Jace Peterson (.756 OPS, 7 HR, 10 SB) has just started in seven of the last ten while hitting at the back of the lineup.

Cardinals

• In the last two games against righties, Tommy Edman (.234/.274/.327, 2 HR, 5 SB over the last 28 days) has sat or moved to the end of the lineup with Juan Yepez (.814 OPS, 11 HR) moving up.

• Conner Capel (.271/.361/.466, 9 HR, 16 SB in AAA, 16 MLB PA) has started in four of the last five games.

• Nolan Gorman (.787 OPS) continues to sit against lefties.

Cubs

• There is a ton of moving parts here.

• Rafael Ortega (.765 OPS vs RHP, .551 vs LHP) only starts against righties but does leadoff against them.

• Alfonso Rivas (.736 OPS vs RHP, .173 vs LHP) starts against righties.

• Christopher Morel (.896 OPS vs RHP, .684 vs LHP) gets buried in the lineup against righties but I’m not sure why.

• A Nelson Velázquez (1.094 OPS in AAA, .704 OPS in AAA, .755 OPS in the majors) is starting more and more (four of the last five). He is a power-speed threat with a combined 16 HR and 13 SB this season.

Diamondbacks

• Josh Rojas (vs RHP) and Jake Hager (vs LHP) are in a platoon.

• Cooper Hummel (.977 OPS in AAA, .612 OPS in the majors) has started five of six games since being promoted … again.

• Buddy Kennedy (.583 OPS, 1 HR, 0 SB) has started 11 straight while hitting in the middle of the lineup.

• Alek Thomas (.799 OPS vs RHP, .538 OPS vs LHP) has sat against two of the last three lefty starters.

Dodgers

• Steady.

• With Chris Taylor on the IL, one of Jake Lamb (.837 OPS) or Trayce Thompson (.770 OPS) has filled in for him. They might be in a platoon with Lamb facing righties and Thompson lefties.

Giants

• There is not a single regular hitter on the team. Almost everyone is in some form of a timeshare. Maybe Brandon Crawford isn’t in one. I just don’t know if any one on the team is rosterable.

• David Villar (.284/.409/.633, 21 HR, 0 SB in AAA, 14 MLB PA) has started four straight.

Marlins

• For a few days, the lineup was a complete mess but the last two lineups against righties were identical except for the catcher.

• Joey Wendle (.761 OPS, 2 HR, 5 SB) has started three straight while hitting at the top of the lineup.

• Jacob Stallings (.504 OPS, 2 HR, 0 SB) is starting about two-thirds of the time at catcher with Nick Fortes (.876 OPS, 3 HR, 2 SB) seeing a playing-time reduction.

Mets

• Steady.

• J.D. Davis (vs LHP) and Dominic Smith (vs RHP) are in a DH platoon.

• Mark Canha (vs LHP) and Luis Guillorme (vs RHP) are in a pseudo-platoon. Both play more than just the platoon because they are the replacements when anyone needs a day off.

• Over the last eight games, James McCann (.549 OPS) and Tomás Nido (.491 OPS) have evenly split time as the catcher.

Nationals

• Lane Thomas (.650 OPS) and Yadiel Hernandez (.731 OPS) don’t have full-time jobs but are starting 70% of the time.

• Victor Robles (.600 OPS, 8 SB) has started nine straight in center field while batting ninth.

Padres

• Nomar Mazara (vs RHP) is still in a platoon with José Azocar (vs LHP). Maraza (.754 OPS, 2 HR) is slowly moving up the lineup.

• Trent Grisham (.621 OPS, 8 HR) is hitting either eighth or ninth.

Phillies

• Darick Hall (.290/.290/.742) has started in seven of eight games but did sit against the only lefty.

• Alec Bohm (.660 OPS, .841 OPS over the last two weeks) has been sitting recently (started four of six) and moving down the lineup.

Pirates

• Ben Gamel (.734 OPS, 3 HR, 3 SB) has started four straight since coming off the IL. My gut says he plays a ton to build up his trade value.

• Jack Suwinski (.215/.300/.463, 14 HR) has started 14 of 15 games.

• Yoshi Tsutsugo (.539 OPS) has started three of four games since coming off the IL.

Reds

• I don’t know what is going on with the last few spots. Every day, it’s new players in the last three or four spots.

• Tyler Naquin (.778 OPS, 6 HR, 3 SB) has started three of four since coming off the IL. The one time he sat was against the only lefty (.850 vs LHP, .537 OPS vs RHP).

Rockies

• Randal Grichuk (.608 OPS vs RHP, .861 OPS vs LHP) sits against about half the righty starters.

• Kris Bryant (.283/.342/.374, 1 HR, 0 SB) has hit second over the last three games.

• Yonathan Daza (.713 OPS, a .483 OPS over the last two weeks) has gone from hitting at the top of the lineup to the bottom third.

There is not a lot out there. A few decent starters and hitters, but not much more.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve had a hard time figuring out Dean Kremer and couldn’t explain his low 2.48 ERA while most of his ERA estimators are in the high 4.00s. I finally got around to looking at his splits with the bases empty and those with runners on base. With the bases empty, Kremer has a .391 BABIP. Once someone gets on base, he has a .167 BABIP. Since he has a .310 overall BABIP, the discrepancy wasn’t obvious. I decided to look into the predictability of BABIP with and without runners and with BABIP-related issues and how much a difference can help predict an ERA regression.

To do the study, I look at starters (>90% games where starts) who at least threw 80 IP in season one and at least 40 IP in the next to help account for survivor bias. Just a reminder that previous studies found it takes forever for a pitcher’s normal BABIP to stabilize (2000 BIP, ~ 4 seasons of 180 IP). Read the rest of this entry »

Over the last two seasons, several highly-touted rookies have struggled with the jump to the majors like Jo Adell, Jarred Kelenic, Joey Bart, and Josh Lowe. I examined strikeout and shift numbers. Also, I wanted to find the major league replacement level OPS where hitters get demoted this season. Usually, it’s just under .650 but I was wondering if it has changed.

I’m not going to put a story around each study. Examples of hitters struggling with the jump to the majors are everywhere. I just want the facts when those stories pop up in the future. Read the rest of this entry »