After looking at simplifying the evaluation of fantasy hitters, I have now moved onto pitchers. The key for me with pitchers is that they have very little personal control over some of their stats. Wins require their team to score runs or the bullpen to hold a lead. Bad fielders can lead to more hits (higher WHIP). More hits lead to more runs scored (higher ERA). More runs scored leads to less Wins.
CC Sabathia (signed a 5 year deal with the Yankees) – Going into the offseason, CC’s destination was an unknown. By resigning with the Yankees, CC’s fantasy value is probably maximized.
First, he will be a Yankee for 5 more seasons, unless traded or released. The Yankees will always try to be competitive and will have a top notch offense and bullpen surrounding him. Compared to other similar pitchers, he will get plenty of run support and leads held to help him accumulate wins.
Tier 1
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano
Tier 2
Michael Young
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Chase Utley
Tier 3 (Part 1)
Michael Cuddyer
Ben Zobrist
Dan Uggla
I see only two decent 2B keepers left, Kendrick and Johnson. I have a couple more articles planned on 2B left off my rankings. In my next article, I will look at some players that could be kept depending on the costs. The other article is on the flaws/questions that kept some of the other 2B off the list.
Howie Kendrick: Howie has generally been predictable with around 10 HRs, 15 SB and a 0.290 average. He produced at that level last season, except he hit 8 more HRs. His HR/FB% jumped from 7% in 2010 to 16.5% on 2011. In 2009 and 2010, his average home run and fly ball distance was 281 ft. In 2011 it jump 10 ft to 291 ft. The jump in HR numbers is real.
If there was one stat to watch going into 2012, it would be his K%. It jumped to a career high of more than 20% for 2011. He swung at and missed more pitches out of the strike zone than in the previous couple of years. He had problems with chasing pitches out of the strike zone early in his career and it looks like it may be returning.
Going into next season, I expect his HR projections to be a little low. Feel free to take a chance that he will continue on with his 2011 HR numbers.
Kelly Johnson – Kelly is a wild card in 2012 because of 2 unknowns surrounding him.
First, which Kelly Johnson will show up? The player that hit 26 HRs, stole 13 bases and had a 0.284 AVG in 2010. Or the player that hit only 0.222 while striking out 27% of the time in 2011.
Here is what I know:
1. He swings for fences and should have over 20 HRs given a reasonable amount of PAs.
2. He will steal 10+ bases.
3. He has no plate discipline right now. His K%, Swing% and Contact% has gotten significantly worse over the past 3 seasons. I would expect a low AVG.
His floor is 0.220-0.240 AVG, 15-20 HR and 10-12 SB for 2012. He has some upside if he can get the K’s under control and if his BABIP, 0.277 in 2011, is closer to his career average (0.311).
The second main factor affecting his value is what team he signs with and his role on that team. I would not set him as a keeper until this information is known. Is he headed to an offensively challenged team or back to Toronto? Will he be used in the 5th or 6th spot to drive in runs or hidden at the bottom of the lineup? Will it be a platoon situation? At least get an idea of how he will be used before setting him as a keeper.
A few weeks ago, I looked at the luckiest and unluckiest pitchers that pitched over 180 innings in 2011. Today, I am looking at the pitchers between 120 and 180 IP. These pitchers are starters, but missed some starts in 2011 because of time in the minors, injuries or being shut down at season’s end.
Tier 1
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano
Tier 2
Michael Young
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Chase Utley
Reminder, I have based most of these rankings off my 2B player talent values.
Michael Cuddyer – Cuddyer has one big question over his head right now. What team will he be on next year? Some reports have him back in Minnesota or with the Indians. Depending on the lineup and stadium of the team he signs with, his value will change significantly.
Rajai Davis was enjoying mixed results this season as the Blue Jays’ center fielder before he endured a season-ending hamstring injury. He didn’t hit for average (0.238) or hit home runs (1), but he did manage to steal quite a few bases (34 in 338 PA). Taking into account how rarely he was on base (0.282 OBA), he was historically active on the basepaths.
To get an idea of how often he attempted to steal, I took the number of stolen base attempts (SB+CS) divided by the number of times he was on first (BB+1B+HBP). Not every time a player is on first do they actually have an opportunity to steal, but this combination does give a general idea of the number of chances vs. attempts. Here are the top players from 2011 (min 300 PA):
Rajai Davis = 70%
Jason Bourgeois = 54%
Dee Gordon = 48%
Eric Young = 44%
Davis was by far the leader in 2011.
His high number wasn’t due to being a pinch runner, either. Looking at Baseball-Reference.com, the 31-year-old was in only 13 games as a substitute with eight plate appearances and four stolen bases.
To put the numbers into perspective, here are the top five players since 1950 (min 300 PA):
Rickey Henderson (1982): 77%
Ron LeFlore (1980): 72%
Vince Coleman (1985): 71%
Rajai Davis (2011): 70%
Otis Nixon (1988): 70%
So what does Davis’ place in history mean for 2012? Probably not much if he isn’t playing. He may see his batting average increase to his career level (0.273), but Toronto’s outfield is crowded. The Blue Jays have their 2011 outfield mostly set with Thames, Rasmus and Bautista. Talk from the team implies that Davis may see some time in LF (Bautista at DH?).
What I would do with Davis in 2012 drafts:
1. Only draft him in a league with daily roster settings. He probably won’t get enough playing time for a league that uses weekly rosters.
2. Watch for the days he is playing and insert him if one of your other players has a rough matchup.
3. While not a huge split, the right-hander has done historically better vs LHP (0.292/0.350/0.411) than RHP (0.264/0.304/0.360). Use him against lefties if you can.
I would look to utilize him strictly as a platoon player to inflate your stolen base numbers. Take a late round flier on him and get some extra steals when the situation warrants it.
After looking at the top tier of 2B, I will move onto the 2nd tier. The top 3 are much better than these 4 players, but the drop off after these three is much smaller.
I am basing the list heavily off of the talent ranking I did recently. As a general rule, the ranking did not like younger players with little MLB experience.
While working on my 2B rankings, I kept seeing Dustin Ackley and Jason Kipnis ranked low. The rankings were a combination of 2011 stats and ZIP preseason projections. While they both hit good in 2011, the projections seemed low. I decided to look into players that had similar rookie seasons and how they performed the next year.
I took all rookies from 1991 to 2011 that had between 150 and 400 PA and an OPS between 0.750 and 0.850. I chose to use OPS, because it is an encompassing stat that is available in the options at Baseball-reference’s Pay Index. Twenty-eight players made the list. Besides Ackley and Kipnis, two other rookies from 2011 where on it, Paul Goldschmidt and Eric Thames. In the end, I had 24 players to use in the comparison.
My 2012 2B keeper rankings begin today. The top tier players were the top 2Bs in 2011 and project to have the top fantasy talent looking forward (I will be using the talent rankings to create the 2B tiers). These 3 are good, so I will be looking deep for any troubling trends.
Dustin Pedroia (28 years old) – Dustin is one of the best players that contributes to all 5 standard fantasy stats. After having an injured left foot in 2010 that cost him half the season, he bounced back nicely in 2011.
I had to really look to find any real blemishes. The one trait that I have noticed is that his contact skills are on a bit of a decline (93% in 2009 to 87% in 2011). His strikeout rate has increased over that same time frame from 6.3% to 11.6%.
His walk rate though is also at an all time high (12%). It looks like he is being a more particular at the plate.
The change in discipline can also be seen with his FB%. It has gone from 41% to 33%, but his HR/FB has gone from 6% to 11%. In 2011, he hit less fly balls, but more of them left the yard for a career high 21 HRs. Generally, he is just showing signs of a maturing player with more walks, strikeouts and home runs.
He will be hitting at the top of a good lineup, so there will be plenty of Run and RBI opportunities. There is no reason to believe that Dustin will see any decline in 2012.
Ian Kinsler (29 years old) – Ian had a great season with 32 HRs and 30 SB. His value would have been much higher if his AVG had been better (0.255). Going into 2012, I could see him being the best 2B if he can combine both power and AVG at the plate.
The main drag for his value in 2011 was his AVG. His average was not down because of his K%, which was a career low (10%). It was down because of his 0.243 BABIP. Historically, Ian’s BABIP, raises and lowers opposite of his FB% and HRs. Here is a chart of BABIP, HR and FB% ordered by BABIP:
| Year | FB% | HRs | BABIP |
| 2009 | 54% | 31 | 0.241 |
| 2011 | 47% | 32 | 0.243 |
| 2007 | 46% | 20 | 0.279 |
| 2006 | 44% | 14 | 0.304 |
| 2010 | 42% | 9 | 0.313 |
| 2008 | 43% | 18 | 0.344 |
In the seasons he tries for more HRs (increase FBs), his AVG suffers (lower BABIP) and vise versa.
Ian is easily one of the top 2B in the league. The one knock I have is figuring out which Ian shows up. The one that hits 30 HRs with a 0.250 AVG or the one with 18 HRs and a 0.290 AVG. Maybe, it will be the magical season with 30 HRs and a 0.300 AVG.
Robinson Cano (28 year old): Robinson was himself in 2011. It was almost a mirror of his 2010 season.
The main trait dragging his fantasy value down, compared to the Kinsler and Pedroia, is his lack of speed. In 2011, he put up a respectable 8 SBs, which was 3 more than any of his previous seasons. If he is the top rated 2B in 2012, the ranking will hing on him putting up SBs in the 6 to 10 range vice the 3 he stole in 2010. It may not seem like that many SB, but these 3 2B are just that close in value.
Another key for Cano is where he bats in the Yankee lineup. In 2009, he batted equally in the 5th – 6th – 7th spots. In 2010 and 2011, he was normally in the 4th or 5th spots. It can be seen that his RBIs jumped from ~90 per year to ~110 per year. If he keeps this lineup position and A-Rod, Tex and the best of the Yankees continue to hit as in the past, he will be a great source of RBIs. If he is moved down in lineup (I don’t see much of a reason for a move) or those in front of him decline in talent (good chance), he may see his numbers decline.
Robinson is a top tier 2B, but normally in the past he had a near void in SBs. In 2011, he filled that void and his value increased. If he has some SBs in 2012, he will be an elite fantasy talent.
Pitchers tend to induce different types of batted balls. Some are fly ball pitchers. Others induce ground balls. While there are always pitchers at the extremes, a few pitchers go beyond the norms on a yearly basis. Today, I am looking at pitchers whose 2011 batted ball data was outside the normal range of values.
To get the extreme baselines, I took the the top and bottom values for a pitcher with over 400 IP total over the past 3 years. Here is a look at some pitchers that may be in store for some batted ball corrections in 2012