2B ADP: Early Results

Mock Draft Central is currently running mock drafts and I will look at how second basemen are being taken in those drafts. Besides the data Mock Draft Central provides, I have added in the approximate round the player would have been taken in a 12-team draft and the difference between the earliest and latest the player was drafted. First, here is a list of the second basemen with their draft stats:

Player	Team	ADP	App. Round	Earliest	Latest	Difference	Draft %
Robinson Cano	NYY	10	1	1	17	16	100.0%
Dustin Pedroia	BOS	19	2	8	28	20	100.0%
Ian Kinsler	TEX	25	2	13	35	22	100.0%
Dan Uggla	ATL	55	5	24	98	74	100.0%
Brandon Phillips	CIN	63	5	38	90	52	100.0%
Chase Utley	PHI	77	6	43	115	72	100.0%
Rickie Weeks	MIL	79	7	46	114	68	100.0%
Ben Zobrist	TB	83	7	40	109	69	100.0%
Howie Kendrick	ANA	104	9	64	130	66	100.0%
Dustin Ackley	SEA	135	11	82	193	111	100.0%
Neil Walker	PIT	143	12	103	198	95	100.0%
Danny Espinosa	WAS	149	12	95	212	117	100.0%
Jemile Weeks	OAK	154	13	98	217	119	100.0%
Jason Kipnis	CLE	163	14	94	ND	–	99.8%
Aaron Hill	ARI	232	19	169	ND	–	90.3%
Kelly Johnson	TOR	237	20	166	ND	–	77.3%
Gordon Beckham	CHW	237	20	207	ND	–	32.0%
Brian Roberts	BAL	242	20	215	ND	–	59.5%
Jose Altuve	HOU	243	20	235	ND	–	8.4%
Omar Infante	MIA	257	21	249	ND	–	18.4%
Alexi Casilla	MIN	264	22	255	ND	–	5.0%
Maicer Izturis	ANA	301	25	291	ND	–	0.4%
Johnny Giavotella	KC	317	26	307	ND	–	3.7%
Tyler Greene	STL	447	37	432	ND	–	1.1%
Joe Inglett	HOU	462	39	447	ND	–	0.4%

Notes

– Pedroia and Kinsler generally should be available for an owner that picks early in the first round when the draft snakes back to them. This pick is a great chance to fill a MI position. I think these 2 and Cano are close in talent, but there is a decent drop off to the next 2B. If an owner doesn’t get one of these 3, wait a few rounds to begin looking at 2B again.

– I am not a fan of Uggla being taken ahead of Phillips. I hate to go with a one dimensional player like Uggle (HRs, no AVG or SB) this early in the draft. Uggla has one of the highest differences between his earliest and last draft positions. Buyers are definitely torn over his value.

– I have no idea how Utley is going this high, especially with Weeks, Zobrist and Kendrick still being on the board. He has had multiple injuries over multiple seasons dragging down his production. Draft the younger players.

– The players I would try to target for 2B is the remainder of who is left from Weeks, Zobrist and Kendrick. See which one(s) drops the most and then pick them up around round 10. These 3 are being picked at the end of a tier of 2B talent. I will group all these 2B together and aim to draft one when only one or two are still available.

– Kipnis and Ackley are just too far apart IMO. A case can be made that Kipnis will have the better season. Here are the pair’s projected stats for 2012 (average of Bill James, Fans and RotoChamp):

Kipnis: 18 HRs, 17 SBs, 0.272 AVG
Ackley: 12 HRs, 14 SBs, 0.271 AVG

Kipnis is being taken 30 spots later on average in the draft. I think in this situation, Kipnis is getting a little short changed and Ackley’s stock is a bit bloated.

– Two final 2B that peak my interest are Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson. Both have the potential to be top 10 or even top 5 2B at the end of the season. If a team is drafting and needs to a fill MI spot, these two look like great pickups around the 20th round.