With the core background work done on my hitter evaluations, I have decided to apply the process to second basemen for 2012. This ranking is based off of all player’s stats given the same number of PA. This a look to see which players are the most talented. You can follow the process with this spreadsheet.
Carlos Lee is best known for the 6 year, $100M contract he signed with the Astros. While he has not lived up to it as a player, he has be a serviceable fantasy option. His home run power has been going down steadily and it is degrading his fantasy value.
The 35-year-old is seeing his power numbers take a nose dive over the past few years. His home run total have gone down each year starting in 2006 with 37 HR and ending with 18 in 2011. The drop in power can be attributed to his inability to hit the ball as far. Here is a graph of his home run and fly ball distances over the past 4 years with a LOESS averaging curve added:
In my first two parts of this series, I looked at the stats to be examined when evaluating hitters and projecting Runs and RBIs. Today, I am going to take a look at projecting plate appearanes (PAs) and stolen bases (SBs).
Plate Appearances
With projections, I find the most error and room for improvement is with playing time. An owner needs to have a hitter playing and accumulating as many PAs as possible. The more PAs, the more counting stats they can hope to generate.
In my last post, I looked at how often various categories are used in fantasy leagues and which core stats are used to predict them. Today, I am using those stats to predict Runs and RBIs
Run and RBI generation, except with home runs, require other players to either be on base or drive the player home. I ran many regressions and adjusted formulas using the inputs from my last article. I used some stats that weren’t listed (ISO, SLG, Spd). After many attempts, I came up with the following simple equation for projecting a player’s Run and RBI production:
Runs or RBI’s/PA = (AVG * 0.330 + BB% * 0.187 + HR% * 0.560)(yearly constant)
r-squared of 0.75 for 2011
yearly constant = 1 for 2012 for now. It will change depending if the run scoring environment changes.
I stated a while back that I will be working on a method to predict and evaluate player’s fantasy stats. I will be using both the player’s talent and outside factors and will also combine several data points to get the player’s final value. I will try to keep the explanation as simple as possible and let me know if you have any questions. Let’s start with hitters and once done with them, move onto the pitchers.
Yesterday, I looked at the batted ball data for full time hitters. Today, I moved onto the hitters that had between 150 and 400 PA in 2011. There are more outliers in these groups because the hitter’s batted ball data did not have a chance to stabilize.
HR/FB%
| Name | HR/FB | PA |
| Jason Giambi | 29.5% | 152 |
| Andruw Jones | 25.0% | 222 |
| Mark Reynolds | 22.9% |
No young players sneaking up onto this list. Just the 2 part time vets
LD%
| Name | LD% | PA |
| Nick Punto | 31.0% | 166 |
| Salvador Perez | 29.2% | 158 |
| Trayvon Robinson | 28.8% | 155 |
| Kyle Seager | 27.7% | 201 |
| J.D. Martinez | 27.6% | 226 |
| David Ross | 26.3% | 171 |
| Ruben Tejada | 25.7% | 376 |
| Willie Bloomquist | 25.2% | 381 |
| Bryan Petersen | 25.0% | 241 |
| Magglio Ordonez | 25.0% | 357 |
| Rob Johnson | 25.0% | 199 |
| Todd Helton | 24.9% |
Salvador Perez – Sal should see plenty of attention going into next season. A catcher that hits 0.300 will get noticed. He won’t continue to hit LD at a near 30% rate. Pitchers will find a weakness in his swing and the numbers will come down.
BABIP
| Name | BABIP | PA |
| Alejandro De Aza | 0.404 | 171 |
| Reed Johnson | 0.394 | 266 |
| Jimmy Paredes | 0.383 | 179 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.369 | |
| Carlos Quentin | 0.242 | |
| Mike McCoy | 0.240 | 228 |
| Rene Tosoni | 0.240 | 189 |
| Jason Michaels | 0.236 | 169 |
| Brian Roberts | 0.236 | 178 |
| Manny Burriss | 0.233 | 152 |
| Matt Tolbert | 0.233 | 226 |
| Jeff Mathis | 0.233 | 281 |
| Hank Conger | 0.231 | 197 |
| Brandon Crawford | 0.228 | 220 |
| Michael Martinez | 0.220 | 234 |
| Jorge Cantu | 0.216 | 155 |
| Chone Figgins | 0.215 | 313 |
| Chris Stewart | 0.213 | 183 |
| Kelly Shoppach | 0.212 | 253 |
| Michael Saunders | 0.212 | 179 |
| Dioner Navarro | 0.210 | 202 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.210 | 153 |
| Jayson Nix | 0.209 | 151 |
| Adam LaRoche | 0.205 | 177 |
| J.R. Towles | 0.200 | 165 |
| Craig Counsell | 0.197 | 187 |
| Drew Butera | 0.194 | 254 |
| Tyler Colvin | 0.175 | 222 |
Alejandro De Aza – He is getting mentioned as next year’s lead off hitter for the White Sox. The possible drop he may see in AVG could easily be made up with SB and Runs.
Hank Conger – He always had a BABIP over 0.300 in the minors. He can’t seem to get it over 0.250 in the majors. He needs to finally break through or he may have a long future as a journeyman catcher.
Brian Roberts – He was hitting bad before losing the season to a concussion. I like him as a buy low candidate in 2012. I would not have him as my first choice at 2B, but would take a late round flier on him.
Chone Figgins – I have no idea why the Mariners just haven’t cut the cord on him.
Anthony Rizzo – He was one of the players that came over in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. He is a long ball hitter with 20 or more HRs over the last 2 years in the minors. While with the MLB club, he hit only 1 HR. A low LD% (13.4%), high K% (30%) and fly balls that won’t leave the stadium (2.8% HR/FB) will lead to the 0.141 AVG. Hopefully he will have a better 2012. It almost can’t get any worse.
Tyler Colvin – Tyler looks like a home run hitter that can’t hit home run. After hitting 20 home runs with a HR/FB ratio of 19.4% in 2010, he only hit 6 HRs in 2011 with a 8.6% HR/FB ratio. I just don’t think he can hit good enough to make it in the majors.
Batters have different hitting styles that allow unique batted ball profiles. Most hitters aren’t able to maintain extreme batted ball values over a few seasons. Here is a look at some regular hitters that should expect their 2010 batted ball data to regress some in 2011.
For hitters (pitchers soon), I looked at BABIP, LD%, and HR/FB for those with a min of 400 PA. To set the baseline, I took the league leading value from the past 3 seasons (min 1200 PA). Then, I selected any player that beat that bench mark. There are not a ton of players that exceed the values because most hitters had a long enough season to get to their true batted ball talent level.
On Friday, I looked at some 2011 Luck leaders and laggards among full time hitters. Today, I am looking at pitchers that pitched over 180 innings. They were the workhorses of a pitching staff.
I would like to make a couple of points to begin with. First, if a pitcher struggles, they are not as likely to pitch as much. The list shows more lucky pitchers than unlucky pitchers. I see this as totally expected. Second, I assumed a league average BABIP for each pitcher. There is some evidence that some pitchers are able to have some control over their BABIP. Feel free to adjust the ranking if you believe the numbers to be incorrect for a pitcher.
Here are the leaders and laggards for 2011 (a complete list of hitters and pitchers from 2009 to 2011):
| Rank | Name | Luck | LOB% | BABIP | TBF | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| 1 | Weaver, Jered | 8.1 | 82.6% | 0.250 | 926 | 0.063 | 2.41 | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| 2 | Cain, Matt | 7.5 | 70.6% | 0.260 | 907 | 0.037 | 2.88 | 2.91 | 3.78 |
| 3 | Hellickson, Jeremy | 7.3 | 82.0% | 0.223 | 774 | 0.081 | 2.95 | 4.44 | 4.72 |
| 4 | Halladay, Roy | 7.2 | 78.1% | 0.298 | 933 | 0.051 | 2.35 | 2.20 | 2.71 |
| 5 | Kershaw, Clayton | 6.7 | 78.6% | 0.269 | 912 | 0.067 | 2.28 | 2.47 | 2.84 |
| 6 | Verlander, Justin | 5.6 | 80.3% | 0.236 | 969 | 0.088 | 2.40 | 2.99 | 3.12 |
| 7 | Kennedy, Ian | 5.6 | 79.2% | 0.270 | 900 | 0.077 | 2.88 | 3.22 | 3.50 |
| 8 | Lincecum, Tim | 5.0 | 78.5% | 0.281 | 900 | 0.080 | 2.74 | 3.17 | 3.36 |
| 9 | Beckett, Josh | 4.9 | 80.0% | 0.245 | 767 | 0.096 | 2.89 | 3.57 | 3.58 |
| 10 | Masterson, Justin | 4.6 | 72.9% | 0.302 | 908 | 0.063 | 3.21 | 3.28 | 3.64 |
| 61 | Hochevar, Luke | -1.3 | 66.0% | 0.275 | 835 | 0.115 | 4.68 | 4.29 | 4.05 |
| 62 | Lowe, Derek | -1.4 | 65.9% | 0.327 | 830 | 0.102 | 5.05 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 63 | Westbrook, Jake | -1.4 | 69.1% | 0.313 | 809 | 0.114 | 4.66 | 4.25 | 4.08 |
| 64 | Penny, Brad | -1.5 | 67.2% | 0.310 | 803 | 0.113 | 5.30 | 5.02 | 4.77 |
| 65 | Capuano, Chris | -1.7 | 72.0% | 0.311 | 802 | 0.120 | 4.55 | 4.04 | 3.67 |
| 66 | Scherzer, Max | -1.7 | 73.7% | 0.314 | 833 | 0.126 | 4.43 | 4.14 | 3.70 |
| 67 | Myers, Brett | -2.1 | 70.2% | 0.293 | 917 | 0.133 | 4.46 | 4.26 | 3.75 |
| 68 | Arroyo, Bronson | -3.2 | 74.4% | 0.278 | 855 | 0.159 | 5.07 | 5.71 | 4.54 |
| 69 | Carmona, Fausto | -3.9 | 62.1% | 0.291 | 833 | 0.130 | 5.25 | 4.56 | 4.17 |
| 70 | Burnett, A.J. | -6.6 | 70.0% | 0.294 | 837 | 0.170 | 5.15 | 4.77 | 3.86 |
Here are my thoughts on some of the players:
Jeremy Hellickson – In his first full season in the majors, Jeremy had a great year. He had an unbelievable BABIP (0.223). This value allowed his ERA (2.95) to be about 1.5 less than his FIP (4.44) and xFIP (4.72). He has no history of out performing his BABIP like Cain or Weaver. He may be a decent pitcher, but it is time to SELL HIGH.
Clayton Kershaw – The key to his emergence as an ace is the drop in BB/9 over the last 3 years from 4.8 to 3.6 to 2.1. As long as he keeps the walks down, he will remain a top pitcher. Now, I would say that I would have no problems moving him in the right deal. His value is pretty much topped out after winning the pitching triple crown.
Josh Beckett – Last season, he ranked as the most unluckiest pitchers (-9.7 Luck) among those pitchers that threw over 100 IP. This season he rebounded into one of the league’s better pitchers.
Ian Kennedy – I am not sure what to think of his 2011 season. He had a lower home run rate (1.21 HR/9 to 0.79 HR/9) and walk (3.2 BB/9 to 2.2 BB/9) in 2011 compared to 2010. I really don’t like to have a pitcher that pitches 1/2 their games at Chase Field. I would be careful about picking him up too early/high, but don’t be afraid if the price is right.
Bronson Arroyo – While he was never considered to be a great pitcher, his 2010 was decent for fantasy purposes. His 2011 was brought down by a career high 2.04 HR/9. I would see little interest in him, even in a deep league. He could be picked up for little next season.
Fausto Carmona – Fausto is not a good pitcher. He is still getting too much love from the 2007 season when he got 19 wins. He does not even had a K/BB rate over 2.0 in 4 seasons. Just stay away.
A.J. Burnett – All of his problems this year came from giving up the long ball. His xFIP (3.86) is inline with both Cain’s (3.78) and Weaver’s (3.80) xFIP. Also, his career xFIP (3.78) is close to his ERA (4.10) and FIP (4.01). I would expect a nice rebound from him next season.
A while back, I released the methods and background on Luck. With the 2011 season over, final values can be calculated. Today I am going to look at some players with over over 500 PA in 2011.
Note: I have gone ahead and made the results available from the last 3 years for hitters (> 50 PA) and pitchers (> 25)
.
In two leagues I am in, there has been some complaining of teams streaming starting pitchers this last week of the season. Streaming is using as many starting pitchers as you can to try to accumulate as many counting stats as possible (Wins and Ks). It is a method to make up make up quite of bit of ground quickly, with little draw back.
Is Streaming Wrong?
There is nothing wrong with streaming, if the leagues rules were to allow it. It could be done by any owner during the season. It usually comes to the fore front at the end of the season for a couple of reasons. First, owners are able to dump starters that are done for the season. These pitchers have no value in the 2011 season. Dumping these pitchers is especially done in single season leagues. In keeper leagues, the dumped pitchers can be picked up for next year, so streaming is limited.