Right before spring training starts  is the time to begin finding players on the fringe. The great to average players have been well documented. Their value is visible in early drafts. To find some fringe pitchers, I looked for ones with an above average fastball, change and breaking ball. The list contains mainly the game’s best pitchers. Instead, I am going to focus on the talent pool’s shallow end and examine Tom Gorzelanny.

First, I will step through how I found a possible sleeper in a 31-year-old left handed middle reliever. I was looking for pitchers who threw three above average pitches and had a chance to start. Using PITCHf/x data, I collected the pitchers who had any above average fastball (two-finger, four-finger, splitter, cutter or sinker), one above average breaking ball (slider or curveball) and a changeup. Additionally, I wanted to make sure the pitcher threw the pitch on a normal basis. Fastballs had to be thrown over 20% of the time and for breaking balls and curveballs it was 10%. Additionally, the pitcher had to have made at least one start (team willing to start him) and had throw at least 30 innings (a bit of MLB experience). Here are the pitchers who met the requirements in 2012 (28 total) and 2013 (16 total).

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Not much in injury news over the past week, so I decided to dive mainly into the effects of major knee injuries.

• The Mariners recently signed Corey Hart who missed all of 2013 after left knee surgery. I went through my injury database and found 60 outfielders who either tore or had surgery on a knee. Additionally, I added those outfielders who missed 90 days or more because of a knee issue. In all, I found 60 outfielders who met the criteria. I looked at the weighted average from the season before … to the season of the injury… to the season after the injury. Here are the results:

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Zack Wheeler‘s major league debut played second fiddle to Matt Harvey’s pre-Tommy John surgery season. Wheeler was a fairly highly-touted prospect since being drafted in 2009 by the Giants and then being traded to the Mets (#49 in 2010, #55 in 2011, #35 in 2012 and #11 in 2013 by Baseball America). He started his first MLB game in the middle of June and his season was combination of good and bad. Going into 2014, walks and injury concerns will be limiting his fantasy value.

The 24-year-old right-handed pitcher didn’t exactly light the world on fire. He had a 7.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9. His ERA was respectable at 3.42, but all of his ERA estimators were north of four (4.17 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 4.40 SIERA). The reason for the disconnect was his 78% LOB%. Here are some comparable 2013 starters with similar walk a strikeout numbers.

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It is that time of year when players state they are in the best shape of their lives. I am going to try not to publish any best shape  information unless news exists on the player’s actual progress.

• Matt Kemp (foot and shoulder injuries) had his walking boot removed recently. Currently, he doesn’t look to be 100% by spring training, but ready for the season’s start.

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Ervin Santana’s usefulness as a fantasy pitching option looked to be coming to an end after his disastrous 2012 season. He was traded to the Royals where he thrived for one season. He may be able to each up the magic 2014, but a lot will be determined by which team signs him.

The big issue for Santana in 2012 was his league leading 2.0 HR/9 fulled by a 19% HR/FB (among qualified starters).

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Just a few updates.

•  Since MLB may possibly banning home plate collision in 2014 (players’ union needs to OK), I was wonder if catcher playing time estimates should be changed.  I went back through the 2013 DL data to see how much time was lost to collisions and Yasmini Grandal was the only catcher with time lost. Foul tips (concussion and hand injuries) caused the most time lost. While other catchers have missed significant time (Buster Posey), it looks like only one or two catchers are affected each season, so playing time estimates should at most be increased a few games.

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Besides the 2014 starting pitcher disabled list (DL) predictions, have a few notes on some players.

• A few weeks ago I re-examined my 2013 starting pitcher DL predictions. The results were dead on as usual. For the 2014 predictions, I have put them in a spreadsheet for everyone to complain about. The main DL percentage chance is based off of age, MLB experience and past injuries.  Additionally, I have added an indication if the player has any other injury inducing traits like heavy breaking ball usage and the inability to throw strikes. While the entire list is available on the spreadsheet, here are the 10 least likely pitchers to go on the DL who also have no other injury indicators.

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Kole Calhoun burst onto the scene in 2013 and will be my 2014 sleeper pick . He was called up mid-season to help a banged up Angels outfield. He took advantage of the opportunity and hit the ball decently down the stretch. For 2014, the key to evaluating him, without a MLB track record,  is to trust the projections and value him accordingly. He will be ranked comparably with other decent fantasy options, but he should be taken at a discount.

Confession, I like Calhoun to be one of the top fantasy sleepers in 2014. The 26-year-old lefty has not been on any top 100 prospect ranking lists as he has made his way through the minors. Before the 2013 season, our own Marc Hulet had him as the 12th top prospect in the Angels shallow farm system. Stepping through some projections, he looks like Calhoun deserves top 25 OF consideration.

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Even though there has been no import injury news, some small bits of information has populated the interwebs.  Today’s article is just a small update on the progress of some players.

• The Orioles think Manny Machado will be ready for opening day.

Orioles third baseman Manny Machado continues to progress favorably in rehab from left knee surgery, and manager Buck Showalter said Wednesday the expectation is Machado will be ready for Opening Day.
“We put a real safe date on it,” Showalter said of Machado’s timetable, which initially was estimated at six months for a mid-April return. “I think he’s got a real chance to make the start of the season. [He] needs to play in [spring] games by March 15 to make the season.”

I will wait-and-see with him. It will be nice to see him run and hit before calling him 100%.

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Lorenzo Cain finally looked great to start off the 2013 season after struggling with injuries in 2012. He hit .325 with three steals in April. While the short sample was not the league’s best, he looked to be useful in deeper leagues and as a plug-and-play canidate. The wheels quickly came off and he hit only .233 over the rest of the season. A change in his approach and injuries caused his season to collapse. His 2014 value will be tied to getting back to his early 2013 form.

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