MASH Report (6/19/14)
• Reader Cason Jolette asked about Jason Kipnis possibly still being hurt. He basically lost the entire month of May because of a strained oblique. Since coming back off the DL, his injury indication stats show he may still be injured.
Stat: Pre-injury, Post-injury
ISO: .160, .037
HR&FB Dist: 272ft, 257ft
K% (contact issues): 14%, 18%
It would be nice to see him hit more than two extra base hits over the time frame. For owners looking to see if he gets back, there two places I would look. Go to Baseballheatmaps.com’s individual player batted ball distance page, set it to the past couple weeks and see if his distance is improving. Also, check out his ISO graph here at FG and look to see if it starts to final trend up (not stay constant).
• San Diego’s Nick Vincent isn’t going to populate many rosters, but he did give some good information on his injury.
Vincent said he was dealing with a bit of a sore elbow last month, and the fallout might have led him to drop his arm angle. That could have led to the shoulder fatigue, he said.
“I really don’t know if that put more stress on the shoulder or not,” Vincent said. “But me and [pitching coach Darren Balsley] watched video and the arm slot looked a little lower. We tried to get it back up, but we couldn’t.”
Going to Brookbaseball.net, here are his average vertical release points from this season.
A bit lower than last season, but I just don’t see much change. At least not enough to predict a possible injury.
• In redraft leagues, Mitch Moreland is droppable after having season ending surgery on his ankle.
• Mark Trumbo is ready to begin a rehab assignment, but the team thinks he is still a month away from returning. Bet on the team.
Fastball Velocity Watch for Pitchers Returning From the DL
• Gio Gonzalez’s average fastball velocity was at a 3-year low. Additionally, only 45% of his pitches were in the strike zone. I don’t think he is 100% yet.
• Miguel Gonzalez’s velocity is fine.
• Sergio Santos’s velocity is at the low end of his past performance (93 mph vs 95 mph). Keep a close eye on him to see if it eventually creeps back up.
Here is how the average fastball velocity from pitchers who have thrown in June compare to the season’s first two months. Remember pitchers should expect to throw slower as starters (see Kevin Gausman).
Thoughts
• Bryan Morris, the pitcher traded to the Marlins by the Pirates for a draft and a groundball machine, has seen a continuous decline in his sinker speed.
• Yu Darvish had a stinker of a last game with his fastball velocity down to 91 mph and only 37% of his pitches in the strike zone. I know Oakland has had his number in the past, but it seems Davish was his worst enemy. Keep an eye on his next start to see if he can pull it together.
HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (introduction/explanation) :
Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.
Note: I compared Une 2014 production to a 2014 full season projection. Take these numbers with much skepticism as we are dealing with small samples.
• Alfonso Soriano looks done. ISO down to .077. K% up to 46%. No power, no contact. Keep an eye on him if he can possibly turn it around.
Players on the DL
(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
Major League Report
On DL
Minor League Report
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Holy wow, Betances is actually UP in velo? What was his previous high IP? I wonder if he’ll wear down by end of the year.
Betances had plenty of innings before, but they were as a starter. Tough to tell how he will transition into the pen.
He jump reminds me of Tommy Hunter’s when he transitioned from a starter to the bullpen:
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=1157&position=P&pitch=FA
Thanks for the information Zim!
The reason for my inquiry was an opportunity to buy low on Kipnis in a shallow redraft league. Right now I have Hill but his performance this year has been underwhelming. Hill hasn’t been stealing any bases nor has he been playing every day, seemingly getting at least a couple days off a week.
As it stands now, the owner is willing to swap Kipnis for one of my starters from this group: Kazmir, Bailey, Fister, Ventura. Would Kipnis still be enough of an upgrade over Hill to present a good enough of a buy low opportunity? I got the green light from Eno and Brad but trading for an injured player who has shown a trend of bad second halves has me worried.
The same owner has Dozier. Should I pursue Dozier instead for the same price?
Thanks for your advice!
Gee whiz, trade any of those for kipnis
Also, is that cool to keep asking until you get the same answer from THREE different rotographers? A nuclear sub requires less agreement.
Allow me to break down my rationale…
– Not every writer answers the comments. Hence me asking BOTH Eno and Mike. I was lucky both answered and even Brad chimed in.
– Upon discovering the sudden drop in ISO since his return from the DL, it seemed that Jeff was the right person to consult in this area.
– While on paper it seems like a no brainer, if Jeff has legitimate concerns over Kipnis going forward, it might alter my approach in trading for Kipnis.
As always, great contribution.
Ahah so you really had three rotographers agree, and then asked for a fourth. I certainly get being trigger shy, but holy cow dude you are setting a new standard. It’s your team. This is kinda sad… It’s fun to make mistakes sometimes, enjoy your team. (And psst, rotographers aren’t always right either)
Yeah I hear ya. I am a bit trigger shy. Don’t make a ton of trades, usually use the waiver to make my team better. 2B is just a wasteland this year though. Other reason I am quadruple checking with these guys is its a big money league, so there are thousands of dollars on the line, so im sure you can understand that.
Spending thousands of dollars while not having the smallest amount of self confidence? I cannot understand that, but good luck, and I hope you support the rotographers sponsors and fg+ or whatever with your winnings.
I don’t believe in 1st and 2nd half splits at all. For me a non-factor.
With Kipnis in re-draft, I would go take the chance with trade (in order) Ventura, Kazmir, Bailey an Fister. I would keep Hill around though because I it may take a while for Kipnis to turn it around or he could go back on the DL.
I think Dozier would be the safer bet, but get Kipnis means more up side
Yeah I knew that on the 1st/2nd half splits. Always seems to be synonymous with Kipnis though.
Thanks for the insight and reply. For what it’s worth, Kipnis has actually been decent since coming back hitting .284 with 4 SB. Just need that damn power to come back.
Before you suggest to sell on J. Cueto (ala Kazmir) is there any reason a starter would drop 0.5 on averages?
More breaking balls?
Or is fluctuation throughout the season acceptable?
A .5 is fine. A .25 mph drop is normal from one season to the next. I never really worry until it is around the 1 mph range and other signs exist.
Dang it man! I was going to ask this very question. Good job and thanks.
I guess I do have a follow-up on this. What would you see Jeff, as an acceptable drop from game to game? Gio velo down about 1MPH on his return. Could this be just game to game random and maybe even more so after a return from the DL?
Thanks
Either really, it takes about three games to get an idea of pitcher’s velocity:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/reliability-of-fastball-speeds-for-pitchers-returning-from-dl/
Is there a page/tool for HURT rankings, or do I have to not be lazy and do the work myself between your posting the updates?
Your own work. Sorry.
I think Tony Gwynn’s HURT is much higher than 229.
Any updates on Buxton?