Well, I just got done with the second most time consuming MASH report of the year when it seems everyone moves off the DL or onto the 60-day DL when the rosters expanded. I hope I got it all. Additionally, I have added a third table for players who will miss significant time, but are not on the DL.

• Carlos Beltran will have elbow surgery at the season’s end to remove some bone spurs in his elbow. Beltran may be a player I target in 2015. His value may be so low that he has the potential to generate surplus value like Victor Martinez did in 2014.

• The D-backs Archie Bradley is finally healthy and available to pitch in the Double-A playoffs.

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I am planning on publishing this piece on a weekly basis. I’ll be looking at a few interesting players. I try to work out for 30-45 minutes a day, so I will just watch a different player each time and give my thoughts on their game at the end of the week. This will not be a complete breakdown of the player, just what I saw. Also, I will probably be looking at average to below-average players to see if anything sticks out with them.

David Buchanan

Why I watched: I noticed him while looking for pitcher with big curveballs. Looking at little deeper and found this:

Month:K%-BB%,GB%
May:4%,42%
Jun:9%,49%
Jul:12%,46%
Aug:10%,55%

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• Heads up, the DL list is basically going to become a moot point in a few days when the rosters expand. Teams have no incentive to put a player on the DL unless it is to the 60-day DL to make room on their 40-man roster. I am going to have an unofficial DL list in the MASH Reports until the season’s end so people can know which players will or won’t be available.

Also, read up on players coming off the DL in September. Many will return without being 100%. John Mayberry is one such example. The Phils pretty much say he is still hurt and they don’t know where he will fit into their outfield.

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A few days ago I released a way too early set of hitter projection values. Today, it is the pitchers’ turn. Truthfully, I wasn’t 100% sure I would release them. It requires a person using them to use their brain somewhat. I decided to go ahead and release and hope most people read a few lines of the article to understand how the spreadsheet is set up.

Notes on the data (PLEASE READ)

• I averaged the rest of season Steamer and/or ZIPS projections. Sometimes only one or the other was available so only one was used at times. The rest of season the projections are a good attempt at getting the player’s talent level right now. The values are close to the 2015 projection with the exception of the September numbers.

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• Jeff Passen looks at the playoff contenders and how the health of their pitching staffs have helped with their 2014 playoff runs.

Of the top 10 in each category, opening-day-rotation starts have more playoff teams than starters’ ERA or team ERA. Seven of the teams with most starts from opening day rotations would make the playoffs if the season ended today, whereas only six of the top 10 in starters’ ERA and team ERA would get to the postseason. And the three non-playoff teams on the healthy list include Detroit (one game back of the second AL wild card), Atlanta (one game behind for the second NL wild card) and Cincinnati (every theory needs an outlier).

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With trade deadlines coming up at the end end of the month, we are are going to publish some 2015 hitter projections to help owners make more informed decisions.  (Pitchers maybe later in the weak – I hate dealing with Saves and Wins so it may just be ERA, K, and WHIP). These are projections, just projections … an estimate of how a hitter will perform in 2015. The list should give owners a decent starting point when setting keepers or last minute trades for the next year.

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As promised, here are the updates reports on some of my injury finding metrics.

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (introduction/explanation) :

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.

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Like Monday, a really light on material today. Tomorrow, I promise to have a bunch of PAIN, SLOW, HURT and Zone% reports for consumption.

• Daniel Hudson is making some minor league rehab starts and is throwing his fastball around 93 mph.

His velocity has returned to pre-surgery levels. Arnsberg says Hudson has routinely pitched in the 93 mph range, even hitting 95 mph on consecutive pitches.

The velocity is close to his pre-TJS days. Stayed tuned to see if he can get back to his 2009 to 2010 production levels.

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The MASH Report is little low on content today and the same will be true for Thursday. I will release a full PAIN and HURT reports on Friday when I get some extra time (kids are finally back in school).

• Gerrit Cole is expected to come off the DL on Wednesday.

• Yonder Alonso is done for the season, he is droppable in all redraft leagues.

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• Justin Verlander is out collecting opinions on his sore shoulder. Dave Cameron and Eno Sarris both looked at Verlander’s velocity decline. Right now, I think Verlander is trying to find anyway to continue pitching this season. If he does continue to pitch, I would expect the same lower production from earlier in the season to continue.

• Manny Machado is on the DL with a sprained knee and he doesn’t expect to be back in just 15 days.

The O’s haven’t given a timetable for Machado’s return. He’ll be eligible to return from the DL on Aug. 27, but chuckled at the suggestion that he could return in two weeks. He says he’ll return when he’s able “to go out there and be Manny Machado.”

So in a couple of weeks, team rosters expand and all the players on the 40-man rosters can be added to the MLB club. Even if Machado isn’t Macado yet, he could be taken off the DL and pinch hit. Just remember, if he comes back September 1st, it doesn’t mean he is 100% ready to go.

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