Even though there has been no import injury news, some small bits of information has populated the interwebs.  Today’s article is just a small update on the progress of some players.

• The Orioles think Manny Machado will be ready for opening day.

Orioles third baseman Manny Machado continues to progress favorably in rehab from left knee surgery, and manager Buck Showalter said Wednesday the expectation is Machado will be ready for Opening Day.
“We put a real safe date on it,” Showalter said of Machado’s timetable, which initially was estimated at six months for a mid-April return. “I think he’s got a real chance to make the start of the season. [He] needs to play in [spring] games by March 15 to make the season.”

I will wait-and-see with him. It will be nice to see him run and hit before calling him 100%.

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Lorenzo Cain finally looked great to start off the 2013 season after struggling with injuries in 2012. He hit .325 with three steals in April. While the short sample was not the league’s best, he looked to be useful in deeper leagues and as a plug-and-play canidate. The wheels quickly came off and he hit only .233 over the rest of the season. A change in his approach and injuries caused his season to collapse. His 2014 value will be tied to getting back to his early 2013 form.

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The real baseball aspect of the trade which sent Prince Fielder to Texas and Ian Kinsler to Detroit has been covered in detail here at FanGraphs. I will give a look at how the trade affects the fantasy value of the players affected.

Winners

Jurickson Profar, Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus playing time– The three-head Texas infield monster needed to be broken up. Many people thought Kinsler would have been traded or moved to the outfield last off-season. Kinsler and Andrus now don’t have to have give up atbats to Profar. Basically, the trio would be splitting up about 1350 PA three ways (450 PA each if evenly divided). Now each hitter can hope to have over 600 each if they remain healthy. Kinsler may see a small production drop because of the new home park (92 vs 101 RHH HR PF) not being as kind to right-handed hitters, but it will be off set by the increase in plate appearances.

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Today I will check back on my 2013 Starting Pitcher DL Projections. Additionally I have injury updates on several players.

• Before last season, I projected the chances a starting pitcher would go on the DL given a formula I created a few season. I took into consideration age, previous MLB experience and past injuries. It is time to see how it did.

First, I removed pitchers who were not on a team in 2013 like Kevin Millwood and Randy Wolf. Next, I added the DL percentage chances for the remaining pitchers. The formula predicted 44.8 pitchers were DL bound. In reality, 44 went on the DL. I will take it. Additionally, I looked at the 20 most and least likely players to go on the DL. Of the twenty least likely, I predicted 6.2 to go on the DL and the actual number was five. Looking at the most likely candidates, I predicted 9.9 to go on the DL and nine actually went. Overall, the results were outstandinga and I will put out the 2014 prediction at a later date.

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Jurickson Profar finally got some decent time in the majors during the 2013 season because of an Ian Kinsler injury. Plenty of hype surrounded the 20-year-old since he was a generally considered the game’s top prospect going into last season. He is still a young with plenty of room for growth, but I am worried about speed limiting his fantasy potential.

Before I delve into the numbers, all of Profar’s value will hinge on his playing time. Last season, the best prospect in baseball didn’t have a position with Ian Kinsler at second and Elvis Andrus at shortstop. The lack of an everyday position never opened up until Kinsler got hurt. Once Profar was given a chance to start, he didn’t exactly excel at the plate. He hit .234/.308/.336 with 6 HR and 2 SB. Most of the switch hitter’s struggles came against left-handed pitchers with a .188/.291/.250 line.

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Starlin Castro’s 2013 season was such a disappointment our own Howard Bender has already stated Castro was the least value player for the 2013 season. I am not sure how much his owners paid for him, but I am guessing it was more than the -$4 he returned this season. The main problem with Castro’s declining production can be traced back to changes his approach at the plate which may continue into 2014.

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Will Middlebrooks had a fairly promising future with the Red Sox after being called up in 2012. His 2013 season did not go as planned. A couple of injuries and a demotion caused havoc on his season. Going forward into 2014, his career will be at a cross roads for several reasons.

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Dustin Pedroia’s wrist pushed back my look at pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery. While doing the Pedroia article, I created a query to look at HURT values on a month to month basis. While it isn’t really needed for the off-season, it will be ready for the start of the 2014 season.

• Dustin Pedroia is supposed to have thumb surgery on Tuesday and will be out for 6 to 8 weeks (link).

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To say Josh Donaldson’s 2013 season was a surprise would be a huge under-statement. He put up a MVP caliber season at a premium position. The exact cause for his turnaround is not exactly known. It could have been his new bat or finally feeling comfortable in his transition to 3B. No matter the cause, since being promoted in the second half of 2012, he has been on a hitting tear.

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Injury news is really beginning to come to a halt. I moved the MASH Report to just once a week and soon it may go to every other week. To keep it going  more regularly, I could look at look at specific injury types and their recovery rates. I would like to run analysis on different injuries like I did with groins today. If there are any specific injury cases you want compared, please let me know in the comments. Next week, I will probably look at pitchers who recently had Tommy John surgery, but I could use other injury types as the off-season goes on.

• The big injury news of the week was Miguel Cabrera having groin surgery which altered his game at the season’s end. He basically could not lift his front leg (source):

“The doctor said he didn’t understand how I could have played with so much pain,” Cabrera told Rojas. “It hurt so much that I almost couldn’t lift my right leg, and that was the reason I couldn’t reach the outside fastballs at the end of the season.”

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