In the middle to late rounds of a draft, pitchers seem to blend together. Picking between two similar pitchers can be difficult. To help with these decisions, I have created a simple cheat sheet to determine which pitcher has an easier path to success based on several outside factors like schedule strength and bullpen quality.

The chart is simple. I went through each factor which may influence a pitcher’s prediction in which they have no control over. I collected projections on each metric and then found the z-score for each value. Greater than 0 is good, less than zero is bad. Then for each team, I added up the z-scores for a final overall value.

The cheat chart is not perfect. It’s to be used as a guide. For example, if a pitcher is a heavy groundball pitcher, the user may not want to add the team’s outfield defense and home park home run factor. A different user may have the perfect projection set except for bullpen and defense. They can ignore the rest of the information. Additionally, a user may want to create their own category weightings. Again, this is just a guide.

To start with, here are the categories and the where I got the values.

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• At Farnam Street, they recently quoted Richard Nisbett on how humans attribute blame.

Our susceptibility to the fundamental attribution error—overestimating the role of traits and underestimating the importance of situations—has implications for everything from how to select employees to how to teach moral behavior.

After covering injuries for years, I think this a great way to divide injury causes between factors out the player’s control (hit in the head with a pitch) to those he controls (hurting a back carrying deer up steps with Todd Helton).

Two hitters whose value has taken a hit from injuries are Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton. Here’s how I would step through the procedure to divide the blame starting with Harper.

Here are his injuries over the past three seasons and how much blame I would give to him.

• ’13 Knee (DL): Ran into wall fielding ball. 60%
• ’14 Thumb (DL): Head first slide. 85%
• ’16 Shoulder (speculation): Unknown and head first slide. Too much unknown for much blame. 20%

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This past Thursday, I spoke at the SABR Analytics conference on my per pitch valuations (pERA).  I originally created them to form an understandable framework for comparing prospect pitching grades and major league results. Some byproducts of the work became useful like the effects of dropping a pitch. Today, I will make available new information I provided at the conference.

For the readers who aren’t familiar with the original work, it can be read in its 2500 word entirety in this previous article. Here is a summary.

• The key is to give each pitch an ERA value (pERA) based on the pitch’s swinging strike and groundball rates. All the values are based on the average values for starting pitcher. Closers will have higher grades because their stuff plays better coming out of the bullpen.
• The pitcher’s control is determined from their walk rate which is separate from the pitch grades.
• Each pitch is placed on the 20-80 scale with 50 being average, 80 great, and 20 horrible.

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I have been researching the 3rd and 4th starting pitching tier. I’m trying to find a few facts to help differentiate the pitchers in this group. Using five print publications, here are the projected ranges for Jharel Cotton, Robert Gsellman, and Rick Porcello

The projections agree on Porcello’s talent. They are almost eerily similar. That is not the case with the other two.

Throwing out the projected innings, which will be more of a guess with these two, the differences in the other two are eye opening. I know both Cotton and Gsellman broke out last season but I’m still a surprised by the large range.

I compared these projections to my personal projections (1/3 of each Pods Projections, our Depth Chart, and BHQ projections – each projection updates playing time which I find important). My projection sits right in the middle for the ranges.

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David Price is visiting every renowned elbow surgeon in the country getting an opinion on his elbow. Currently, the news has improved from definite Tommy John surgery to maybe not.

Price will receive opinions from both Andrews and ElAttrache in Indianapolis tomorrow, tweets Britton. (The renowned surgeons are both there for this week’s NFL combine.) Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald tweets that Farrell said the initial MRI revealed some swelling and fluid buildup but offered “inconclusive” results overall. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets that Price himself is optimistic that the injury isn’t serious.

Price’s injury is this year’s second reminder (Alex Reyes) of the fragile nature of pitchers. I believe experienced owners don’t pay for pitchers because they lost a high-priced arm in the past. The memory is too strong and they don’t want to experience the situation again. A pitcher’s price must be discounted enough so the owner can stomach a lost season.

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Necessity is the mother of invention. –Plato

I wanted to know how owners were valuing Michael Brantley’s playing time. Currently, at NFBC, he is going 233rd overall in NFBC drafts. Over a full season, he is projected to be more productive than the two outfielders going right before him, Carlos Beltran and Randal Grichuk. Owners, via calculations or their gut, are significantly downgrading a full season Brantley. But by how much? I needed to find the league replacement value.

I could go through all the whole league setting and final the values like I did for my Tout Wars league. While I recommend this detailed procedure for any league an owner takes seriously. I was just looking for a quick answer and stumbled upon one while looking over my Fantrax league.

Our friends at FanTrax.com have their players listed with projected stats and ADP. Having both downloadable made a projection sheet quickly come together.

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Over the past week, I have collected information on how spring training closers battles have worked out from 2013 to 2016. Today, I go over the results. It’s now time to release the tables.

The first set of data shows how the team’s initial closer fared.

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Cody Bellinger is going to be a stud. He’s athletic and can hit the ball a mile. Just watch this home run from yesterday and enjoy.

I believe he’d be getting a ton focus if Adrian Gonzalez, and his contract, didn’t already occupy first base. The 35-year-old is still productive and can’t be benched … I think.

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On Wednesday, I asked for help to verify historic preseason closer situations and how those roless held up. Today, I will task your memory and ask for help with two more seasons. After getting these two seasons straightened out, I’ll call it quits on the collection process and begin the analysis next week.

Please look over your favorite team and make sure the information is correct. Additionally, look over the situation with question marks as the information I gathered was vague. Finally, here is the meanings of each column. Read the rest of this entry »

• Josh Harrison discussed how his July 2015 surgery bothered him into 2016.

Harrison had surgery to repair his thumb in July 2015, and he returned at less than 100 percent. The following offseason, his training was designed to avoid putting too much weight on his thumb joint. Even during the first half of ’16, especially in cold weather, Harrison’s thumb became stiff and often stung.

“To be honest, I didn’t really feel it come back until right before I got hurt,” Harrison said.

Examining Harrison batted ball stats, there is a mixed message with his 2016 exit velocity dropping 1 mph while and increase in his launch angle led to more distance (+11 ft). The more I dug, I found very little to support a 2017 rebound. He was not productive before the 2015 injury. He never improved over the 2016 season. I may give him a small bump in value because he may have played through injuries but I think the 29-year-old may have peaked in 2014 and is just headed downhill. With him approaching 30, his one good trait, steals, may also be in jeopardy.

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