pERA Laggardboard: Starters

Yesterday, I wrote about some pitchers at the top of my two-month pERA ranking. Today, I am going to examining some starting pitchers (min 5 starts) who are the other end of the spectrum. These pitchers have struggled and I will try to determine why.

Note: For reference, here are the articles in which I created the framework for the metric (full list).

 

Rich Hill (#165, 6.01 pERA): Hill throws two pitches and both have taken a significant step backward. Starting with his fastball, it’s 1.5 mph slower. This move is not a game changer, but for a pitcher with just one other pitch, any fastball degradation could kill his overall value.

And his curveball is a mess. Like his fastball, he’s throwing it 1.5 mph slower but with 3.5 fewer inches of vertical break. Hitters are just teeing off on the pitch. The pitch’s groundball rate has dropped from 60% to 36%. The extra flyballs have caused his home run rate to jump to 1.4 HR/9 after being under 0.7 the previous two seasons.

In addition to the downgraded pitches, he can’t find the strike zone with a walk rate over six.

Something seems wrong with Hill and looking back at his recent history, it’s likely another blister. He’s probably not able to grip the ball as well. Here’s Hill’s spin rate on his curveball which has dropped the last few games but he’s seen similar fluctuations before (along with injuries).

Besides the recent drop, his year average spin is also down ~50 rpm from 2016. Again, not a game changer but all the dents are really adding up.

 

Julio Urias (#161, 5.76 pERA): Urias’s struggles come down to one issue, he’s just walking too many batters (5.4 K/9) which have continued after he was demoted back to AAA (4.9 BB/9). No pitcher can survive walking more than a batter every other inning. I have a notion of viewing one of his bad starts but I wouldn’t accomplish much. I expect the Dodgers are trying to correct his struggles’ cause in the minors and Urias will come back a changed pitcher.

Some owners may worry about the low strikeout rate (4.2 K/9) but with an 8.9% SwStr%, it should rebound near his 2016 levels above 9 K/9.

Urias has so much talent but the 20-year-old is having problems harvesting his abilities. Owners need to show some patience and hope he can be a productive major league pitcher this season.

 

Matt Harvey (#155, 5.61 pERA): Harvey’s a mess right now. He’s got the bad pitcher trifecta going with too few strikeouts and too many walks and home runs. Owners have to bench him at this point.

The big difference between prime Harvey and the current version is his fastball. While the velocity has only dropped about 1 or 2 mph, the pitch’s swinging strike rate declined from around 10% to 5%.

I’m not sure what’s exactly wrong with Harvey and he has got to be benched. I could almost see releasing him in some shallow leagues. I would be more inclined to hold onto him if he just needed one of his stats to come into improve but he’s a mess across the board.

 

Andrew Cashner (#151, 5.44 pERA): Cashner is the lowest rated pitcher with a sub-4 ERA. Every season there seems to be one pitcher who is able to luck himself through half a season of pitching and Cashner may end up being the 2017 version of that guy. His walk rate (4.3 BB/9) is higher than his strikeout rate(3.9 K/9). No pitcher keeps his ERA under 4.00 while allowing more walks than strikeouts. The last pitcher to do so (min 30 starts) was

His walk rate (4.3 BB/9) is higher than his strikeout rate(3.9 K/9). No pitcher keeps his ERA under 4.00 while allowing more walks than strikeouts. The last pitcher to do so (min 30 starts) was Mike LaCoss in 1979. Keeping an ERA under five is nearly impossible with Kirk Rueter in 2004 being the last to accomplish the feat.

The Rangers will pitch him until he falls on his face for a couple of starts. Because a team is using him doesn’t mean fantasy owners have to roster, yet only start him. An owner might as well use a reliever. Ninety-two of them have more strikeouts than the 25 Cashner has mustered this season.

 

Ervin Santana (#123, 5.03 pERA): Like a .153 BABIP is sustainable. Sell immediately.