The Notes took a leave of absence while I was in Arizona for a few days. I spent most of my time on this article updating the spring training velocities, watching a couple pitchers, and waiting for my internet connection to return.

Astros vs. Nationals (3/6/18)

A.J. Cole
FB: 88-92 mph. Straight with nothing on it
CH: 78-81 mph. 12-6 break, threw it a lot, must of been working on it.
SL: 77-79 mph
Overall: His fastball is well below average with little movement or velocity. His breakers all move to the release side (slider), down (change), or both (curve). He no one to get excited over.

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Chasing Saves frustrates many owners as injuries and poor performance piles up. Trying to accumulate Saves can be a tiring game with roster spots and FAAB wasted on arms who only keep their job for a week or two while piling up a 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Last pre-season, I went through and examined reliever talent and how likely they were they were to keep their job. It’s time to give the 2018 bullpen arms their chances to make it a full season.

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The LABR only league auctions are a fantastic way to start off the fantasy season (AL and NL results). I’m co-captaining one of the AL-only teams with Eno Sarris who is making one last attempt for a championship. Here are some takeaways from the weekend.

For a quick rundown of the rules.

• 12 teams
• 23 players, 9 pitchers, 14 hitters (two catchers)
• 5×5 roto with AVG
• $260 budget

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The ADP movers over the past two weeks can generally be group into several specific categories. Others are off on an island. I’ll examine the outliers and place others into their obvious groups (full top 245 at the article’s end).

Billy Hamilton (60 to 62)

I’m not sure why Hamilton has fallen a bit as the draft season has moved on. One theory I can make up is that owners are drafting with a more balanced approach and they don’t need to reach for Hamilton. The problem with Hamilton is he is a complete sink on your team in every other category besides steals. I have him as the 61st ranked hitter so he’d be lower with pitchers added so I can understand the drop.

Justin Turner (85 to 83)

I don’t think he’s moved as much as everyone else around him started moving. The talent curve begins to flatten at this point and small value changes can lead to bigger jumps.

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Today’s notes are me catching up on news and games after getting a couple other articles finished.

2/26/18 Games

Mets vs Tigers

Noah Syndergaard was hot during and after his last start.
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In a few days, the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational will begin drafting. The invitational is the combination of 13 different 15-team leagues full of the industry’s best and brightest (and Howard Bender). We’ve been given our draft positions and I got the third pick. After Arizona installed the humidor and dinged Goldschmidt’s value, the pick has no easy options. Instead of focusing on the first-round pick, I’m going to dive into my second and third round options to hopefully make a better choice with the first one.

With any draft or auction in which my draft pick is known, I plan my first two to three picks. Beyond that point, the variables increase, plan is out the window, and owners need to target values and needs.

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Note: There was a ton of guys (e.g. Matt Bush) I wanted to see in Arizona but none of the relevant games were broadcast. It’s 95% Grapefruit league today.

Braves vs Nationals

A radar gun and some interesting young arms pulled me into this game.

Max Scherzer
FB: 91-94 mph
SL: 85-88 mph (straight up nasty)
CB: 75-78 mph
CH: 83-86 mph

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Brewers vs Angels

The rest of the media covered Shohei Ohtani in depth but I needed to see him for myself. Here are my thoughts.

Shohei Ohtani allowed a run while recording two strikeouts and a foul popout in his first inning. His fastball ranged from 93-97 mph. He threw some nasty secondary pitches, including a particularly nice 69-mph curveball.

— Pedro Moura (@pedromoura) February 24, 2018

• I was not impressed. He looks to be a good pitcher, just not at ace level.
• The fastball was straight. The curve is slow and loopy. He had little feel for breaking balls. His split-change did look good though. It’s early but he did not impress.
• He’s a little slow throwing to home from the stretch with an average time of 1.5 seconds (below league average). He has a little early pause. I’d not be surprised if he has problems controlling the running.

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I’m not sure how often I’ll go through the league each day during spring training but it should be fairly often. I’m going to focus on the players whose status is up in the air and could see their values change.

Detroit vs New York Yankees

Miguel Cabrera swings (8 and 1:02-minute mark)

I am no trained scout but even though he got a single in his second at-bat, there was no power behind any of his swings. I’m not buying any improvement for now.

Mets vs Braves

Zack Wheeler was one of the few pitchers who threw Friday I wanted to see how he performed after missing the two months last year with an arm injury. It was only an inning of work and the camera angle was rough but he looked fine. Here are his pitch velocity’s from the broadcast radar gun.

• FB 94-97
• SL 87-88
• CU 77 12-6

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I’ve been prepping for two AL-only leagues, so the today’s thoughts only involve mainly AL hitters but can be extended to either league. While working on my evaluations here are some observations.

Create a plan for the injured X-factors

The two hitters who could carry a fantasy team, if healthy, are Michael Brantley and Miguel Cabrera. If (BIG IF) they get a full season of healthy plate appearances, I’d not be surprised if they were top-20 hitters. Owners aren’t showing a ton of faith since Cabrera’s ADP is at 95 and Brantley’s at 245.

No one knows for sure how they’ll perform so owners need to know before the draft where they feel they can gamble on rostering them. Owners need to make this decision ahead of time, not on the fly in a draft or auction. Come up with a plan you can live with and stick to it. Their evaluations can be adjusted as detailed reports become available from spring training on their health.

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