Author Archive: Jeff Zimmerman

I’ll prioritize questions on weekly acquisitions but will take other fantasy related questions. See everyone at 8:30 EST tonight.
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Today’s article is mainly facts with little to no narrative. I’m investigating possible changes that can be used in fantasy valuation with just a small sample, fastball velocity and lineup position.

Fastball velocity changes from 2017 to 2018 with new pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cardinals have added Jordan Hicks to their major league bullpen. The move comes as a surprise with Hicks skipping both Double and Triple-A. While Hicks’s role is not defined, he’s a talented pitcher who can’t be ignored.

The 21-year-old righty has previously shown a plus fastball. Here are the various scouting reports on it.

• FanGraphs: Grade 50/55, “…routinely sitting 94 or better during the regular season, Hicks’ heater sat 97-100 in the Fall League … trouble keeping it down … doesn’t play like an 80-grade fastball…”
• MLB.com: Grade: 70, “… fastball will sit in the mid-90s, frequently touch the upper-90s and flirt with triple digits, all with plus natural movement…”
• Baseball America: Grade: 70, “… 93-98 mph with his fastball, sits 95, and touches 101 in short bursts…holds his velocity … fastball plays up further with arm side life…”
• BHQ: Grade: 4+, 93-98 “… sits 93-96, topping at 100 mph with good late sink…”

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A plethora of information is available to fantasy owners with most just a repeat from one season to the next. For this reason, it’s tough to find anything new or helpful. Joe Rosales has stepped forward this year to provide six pages of useful injury nuggets in the Bill James Handbook, especially relating to catchers. Here are some of the highlights

1. Baseball Info Solutions is now collecting detailed injury information

Finally, and good luck. Building a comprehensive database is the key component to really understanding injuries. From personal experience, it’s just a pain-in-the-ass to track in-season injuries and also compile the end-of-season database. While, I’m sure the information is not going to be free to the public, at least the information is being collected for someone like Mr. Rosales to compile.

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The major league season is starting in just a few days. Fantasy owners are making the adjustment from pre-season to in-season mode. Before owners concentrate 100% on in-season topics, they should take a step back for a few minutes and reflect on their final rosters and the process they used to acquire them concentrating on what worked and what didn’t. Here are some areas to consider and how I struggle with them.

Player Valuation Process

This area is probably the one area I struggle with balancing the most. Do I over think the player values and more importantly do I make actual decisions based on these valuations? I start all my valuations by creating a composite projection system from several websites and generally probably lock myself into these projections to create player values depending on the league’s format. Usually, I just check each value and adjust them as I see fit.

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RotoGraphs will be hosting this chat every Sunday night during the season to help owners decided on their waiver claims and FAAB bidding. I will be the normal chat host but others may step in if I have other commitments.

The start time will need to be after 7:00 PM CST when I host so it’s at 7:30 for now. Let me know how the time works.

As for the focus of the chat, I’ll try to answer fantasy questions on waiver wire pickups and FAAB bidding. I’ll answer other fantasy questions if no more acquisition questions are in the queue.

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This post will provide updated information on the upcoming draft weekend. I’ll update as I find relevant news over the weekend.

• A notice to those owners setting their Sunday waiver claims: I will be hosting a RotoGraphs chat every Sunday during the season from 8:00 pm EST for an hour or so starting this weekend. It will run every Sunday during the season. I may not host it every week but someone will fill in.

Friday Afternoon Update

• Erick Aybar has opted out of his Twins contract meaning Eduardo Escobar will be the Twins the second baseman until Jorge Polanco returns from this 80-game suspension. As a replacement, owners could do worse than Escobar as a replacement. He’s projected for home runs in the high teens with a few steals.

• Albert Almora Jr. seems to be batting 8th quite a bit. His value swings a ton depending if he is leading off or in the 8th spot (fewer AB and SB).

• Here are the spring training team stolen base totals with the new managers in yellow.

• The Mariners are running which is good for Dee Gordon.
• Of the teams with new managers, the Phillies and the Yankees have been the most aggressive.
• I’m worried about Mookie Betts with the Red Sox near the bottom. Several people on Twitter have pointed out that the Red Sox plan on running more this year. Since spring training stolen base rates weakly correlate to in-season rates, I don’t believe the Red Sox will steal more this year.

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In a small subset of leagues, relievers who have starting pitcher eligibility are gold. If an owner hasn’t been in such a league, the following information is useless and confusing. The specific league requirements which boost these pitcher values are (Note: normally seen in Yahoo leagues):

• Daily lineup changes
• Starting and relief pitcher slots
• Inning limits

I used to be in such a league and I would scavenge the waiver wire looking for any of these pitchers. They allow an owner to accumulate great rate stats when their starter isn’t starting. Two or three can just sit permanently in the starting slots. And every year, it seems like one guy ends up getting a few Saves.

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After an crushing last season’s BOLD predictions, it’s time to regress with some outlandish claims focusing on their average draft position (ADP).

#1 Dinelson Lamet will end the season as a top-30 pitcher.

Lamet has two factors pointing him having a great 2018 season. First, he posted a 10.9 K/9 in 114 major league innings. Additionally, he made 29 starts between Triple-A and the majors. If he has just a little bit of batted ball luck (and hopefully develop a third pitch), his production will soar.

#2 Gregory Bird will outproduce Aaron Judge.

I’m both high on Bird and low on Judge. With Bird, he’s finally healthy and will join Judge in the middle of the Yankees lineup. I don’t believe in Judge’s high BABIP and batting average. I think both will sink quite a bit dragging down both is RBI and Runs totals.

#3 Adrian Beltre will outperform his ADP (158) and be a top-75 player.

I have no idea how Beltre is going in the so late in drafts. While dealing with injuries last season, he hit 17 HR with a .312 AVG in 389 PA. I’d rather have Beltre over Shaw who is going around pick 90. I’ll wait four to five rounds and own Beltre.

#4 Luis Severino will outproduce all but one of the top-4 starters. Read the rest of this entry »

This past weekend I was again honored to be asked to participate in the 15-team Tout Wars auction held bright and early on Saturday morning at Staten Island’s Richmond County Ballpark. After a short ferry ride, I caught up with old friends and then auction began. Like last year, it rolled at a fast pace and ended in about four hours later. While my final team’s roster doesn’t resemble any team I’ve previously rostered, it has a nice chance to compete.

Prep

The biggest decision I made when constructing this team happened months ago when I looked back at my 2017 fantasy teams and found my pitching way outperforming my hitting.

To help offset this final imbalance, I decided to go with a 70%/30% hitter/pitcher split. Over the past few seasons, this league’s split has been 67.8%/32.2%. The difference works out to a $6 difference. I am not married to reaching this exact mix at the auction but it gives me a general guideline to follow. It had a side effect I didn’t fully understand but the anomaly ended up driving my auction.

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