Author Archive

Post Draft Season Checklist

The major league season is starting in just a few days. Fantasy owners are making the adjustment from pre-season to in-season mode. Before owners concentrate 100% on in-season topics, they should take a step back for a few minutes and reflect on their final rosters and the process they used to acquire them concentrating on what worked and what didn’t. Here are some areas to consider and how I struggle with them.

Player Valuation Process

This area is probably the one area I struggle with balancing the most. Do I over think the player values and more importantly do I make actual decisions based on these valuations? I start all my valuations by creating a composite projection system from several websites and generally probably lock myself into these projections to create player values depending on the league’s format. Usually, I just check each value and adjust them as I see fit.

Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Fantasy Chat

RotoGraphs will be hosting this chat every Sunday night during the season to help owners decided on their waiver claims and FAAB bidding. I will be the normal chat host but others may step in if I have other commitments.

The start time will need to be after 7:00 PM CST when I host so it’s at 7:30 for now. Let me know how the time works.

As for the focus of the chat, I’ll try to answer fantasy questions on waiver wire pickups and FAAB bidding. I’ll answer other fantasy questions if no more acquisition questions are in the queue.

Read the rest of this entry »


Spring Training Notes (3/23/17): Updated Friday Afternoon

This post will provide updated information on the upcoming draft weekend. I’ll update as I find relevant news over the weekend.

• A notice to those owners setting their Sunday waiver claims: I will be hosting a RotoGraphs chat every Sunday during the season from 8:00 pm EST for an hour or so starting this weekend. It will run every Sunday during the season. I may not host it every week but someone will fill in.

Friday Afternoon Update

Erick Aybar has opted out of his Twins contract meaning Eduardo Escobar will be the Twins the second baseman until Jorge Polanco returns from this 80-game suspension. As a replacement, owners could do worse than Escobar as a replacement. He’s projected for home runs in the high teens with a few steals.

Albert Almora Jr. seems to be batting 8th quite a bit. His value swings a ton depending if he is leading off or in the 8th spot (fewer AB and SB).

• Here are the spring training team stolen base totals with the new managers in yellow.

Read the rest of this entry »


Relievers Qualified as Starters

In a small subset of leagues, relievers who have starting pitcher eligibility are gold. If an owner hasn’t been in such a league, the following information is useless and confusing. The specific league requirements which boost these pitcher values are (Note: normally seen in Yahoo leagues):

  • Daily lineup changes
  • Starting and relief pitcher slots
  • Inning limits

I used to be in such a league and I would scavenge the waiver wire looking for any of these pitchers. They allow an owner to accumulate great rate stats when their starter isn’t starting. Two or three can just sit permanently in the starting slots. And every year, it seems like one guy ends up getting a few Saves.

Read the rest of this entry »


Jeff Zimmerman’s 2018 Bold Predictions

After an crushing last season’s BOLD predictions, it’s time to regress with some outlandish claims focusing on their average draft position (ADP).

#1 Dinelson Lamet will end the season as a top-30 pitcher.

Lamet has two factors pointing him having a great 2018 season. First, he posted a 10.9 K/9 in 114 major league innings. Additionally, he made 29 starts between Triple-A and the majors. If he has just a little bit of batted ball luck (and hopefully develop a third pitch), his production will soar.

#2 Gregory Bird will outproduce Aaron Judge.

I’m both high on Bird and low on Judge. With Bird, he’s finally healthy and will join Judge in the middle of the Yankees lineup. I don’t believe in Judge’s high BABIP and batting average. I think both will sink quite a bit dragging down both is RBI and Runs totals.

#3 Adrian Beltre will outperform his ADP (158) and be a top-75 player.

I have no idea how Beltre is going in the so late in drafts. While dealing with injuries last season, he hit 17 HR with a .312 AVG in 389 PA. I’d rather have Beltre over Shaw who is going around pick 90. I’ll wait four to five rounds and own Beltre.

#4 Luis Severino will outproduce all but one of the top-4 starters. Read the rest of this entry »


I Happily Paid $56 For Mike Trout in Tout Wars

This past weekend I was again honored to be asked to participate in the 15-team Tout Wars auction held bright and early on Saturday morning at Staten Island’s Richmond County Ballpark. After a short ferry ride, I caught up with old friends and then auction began. Like last year, it rolled at a fast pace and ended in about four hours later. While my final team’s roster doesn’t resemble any team I’ve previously rostered, it has a nice chance to compete.

Prep

The biggest decision I made when constructing this team happened months ago when I looked back at my 2017 fantasy teams and found my pitching way outperforming my hitting.

To help offset this final imbalance, I decided to go with a 70%/30% hitter/pitcher split. Over the past few seasons, this league’s split has been 67.8%/32.2%. The difference works out to a $6 difference. I am not married to reaching this exact mix at the auction but it gives me a general guideline to follow. It had a side effect I didn’t fully understand but the anomaly ended up driving my auction.

Read the rest of this entry »


Spring Training Notes (3/12/18) Diaz, Bush, Montgomery, & South Side Closer

Indians

The Indians have no desire to raise Yandy Diaz’s launch angle.

But the chanting for Diaz to put a few degrees of lift into his swing is not coming from manager Terry Francona and the Indians.

“The best way to mess him up is to try to get him to pull the ball in the air,” Francona told reporters in Goodyear, Ariz. “He won’t be the hitter he is. We know that.”

Diaz’s body builder’s physique is trapped inside the swing of a No.2 hitter. In Cuba, where he learned to play, he usually hit second. His right-handed swing is grooved to hit the hole between first and second base to advance the runner on first.

But no matter how hard Diaz hits the ball, the infield shift has largely neutralized his swing. Last season Diaz hit .263 (41-for-156) with no homers and 13 RBI. Nine of his hits went for extra bases.

Well great. No improvement here.

Rangers

Matt Bush is headed back to the bullpen after attempting starting.

Instead, Bush will be used as a reliever who will serve as a “bridge” in the middle innings and can pitch one-plus innings. Bush has been used strictly as a reliever in his first two seasons with the Rangers.

“We just feel that Matt is way too important to us in the bullpen,” manager Jeff Banister said. “Just his set of pitches, how he pitches, so we feel like that’s the best move for him as well as us as a team trying to structure the bullpen the best way we possibly can going forward.”

Bush may still be a nice pickup as a cheap middle reliever with a 100 IP workload.

White Sox

The White Sox are going to keep everyone guessing who’s going to be their opening-day closer.

Even with the experienced pair of Soria and Jones in tow, Renteria didn’t want to limit his closing options. He mentioned returning White Sox Juan Minaya, Gregory Infante and Danny Farquhar as players who saw high-leverage time last season. Chicago also has non-roster options such as Bruce Rondon, Jeanmar Gomez, Robbie Ross Jr. and has Luis Avilan — also acquired in the Soria trade — as options on the back end.

“I don’t want to tie myself down and say we won’t ultimately have a Minaya closing out a ballgame or an Infante or a Farquhar or whoever it might be in a particular situation, but I do know that those two young men have experience and have done it,” Renteria said. “Nate’s coming back healthy, capable of doing a lot of different things. Fortunately for us, our flexibility has improved. Through either experience, we’re gaining from the guys we have that fell into that role last year and the two men that are with us in Joakim and Nate.

I’m only going to target either Nate Jones or Joakim Soria. They’re projected for the best stats (about 10 K/9 and 3.50 ERA). I’ll prefer Jones and his 0.00 ERA with Soria posting one at 18.00 ERA. I’m betting on the White Sox playing the hot hand.

Yankees

Unless he completely falls apart, Jordan Montgomery will be given a Yankees rotation spot to start the season.

Coming off a campaign in which he paced all American League rookies in starts, strikeouts and innings pitched, Jordan Montgomery has all but secured his place in the rotation, manager Aaron Boone said.

Montgomery, whose next start will come on Sunday against the Marlins, has limited opponents to one run on five hits in 8 2/3 Grapefruit League innings (1.04 ERA). Boone said on Friday that he sees the fifth rotation spot as belonging to Montgomery.

“I viewed him as very much a front-runner for that spot,” Boone said. “We e really excited about not only the year he put together last year, but where we think he can continue to go. When I look at him, I look at him as one of our starters.”

He’s now a wild card heading into the season and these readings have me moving him down in my rankings.


Spring Training Notes (3/9/18): Archer’s Change, Astros at First, Brewers Leadoff

3/8/18

Brewers vs Diamondbacks

In the game, Christian Yelich led off with Lorenzo Cain batting second. In the three games when both have been in the lineup, Yelich has led off in each one. This lineup position will be a small hit to Yelich’s value. While he’ll get 30 extra at-bats during the season, he’ll start off the game with no RBI chances. Also, hitting after the pitcher limiting his opportunities even more.

Read the rest of this entry »


Spring Training Notes (3/8/18)

The Notes took a leave of absence while I was in Arizona for a few days. I spent most of my time on this article updating the spring training velocities, watching a couple pitchers, and waiting for my internet connection to return.

Astros vs. Nationals (3/6/18)

A.J. Cole
FB: 88-92 mph. Straight with nothing on it
CH: 78-81 mph. 12-6 break, threw it a lot, must of been working on it.
SL: 77-79 mph
Overall: His fastball is well below average with little movement or velocity. His breakers all move to the release side (slider), down (change), or both (curve). He no one to get excited over.

Read the rest of this entry »


Closer Job Security Chances

Chasing Saves frustrates many owners as injuries and poor performance piles up. Trying to accumulate Saves can be a tiring game with roster spots and FAAB wasted on arms who only keep their job for a week or two while piling up a 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Last pre-season, I went through and examined reliever talent and how likely they were they were to keep their job. It’s time to give the 2018 bullpen arms their chances to make it a full season.

Read the rest of this entry »