I feel I’m entering uncharted waters as the FAAB results are agreeing and conflicting with the narratives. For the first few weeks, my FAAB predictor was working fine and then right before the trade deadline, most bids were a third of the expected values. While I speculated owners were hoarding FAAB for trade deadline moves, I had no evidence yet for the assumption. I’ll show the assumption might have been right and what to expect to spend this week’s bids.

Overall Trends

When I last ran this report (sorry for missing last week, but I was at the SABER Seminar) on the 34 leagues in the NFBC Main Event, the estimates were far from the results. Two ideas crossed my mind as causes. First, dead owners were no longer spending, or they were saving every dollar for deadline deals, especially those who had the most FAAB. It seems like the FAAB hoarding situation was correct as spending spiked as the highest percentage of remaining FAAB was spent last week.

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A couple nights ago, I sat down to do a Quick Look at two pitchers, Brett Kennedy and Tommy Milone. Both had horrible starts with game ERA’s over 10 and lost quite of bit of fantasy value. After watching each start, both pitchers may end up being usable but owners will need to proceed with caution.

Brett Kennedy

I’ve anticipated this callup for a while after prospect pitcher finder spotted him earlier in the season. Before his major league debut, 24-year-old righty was projected to the be the Padres best starter by ERA. After the start, he dropped below Joey Lucchesi.

The 11th round draft pick was never on anyone’s prospect radar but he has been tearing up the PCL with a 10-0 record, 2.72 ERA, and an 8.1 K/9.

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This past weekend, I attended the always incredible SaberSeminar in Boston. It was great time catching up with friends (Dave Cameron sighting) but also to take in some innovative ideas. I decided to share some fantasy applicable topics which were discussed.

Pitch Tunneling

Experimentally determining the “Commit Point” – Evaluating the time it takes a hitter to check his swing by William Clark and Joe Petrich

Pitch Tunneling, Pitch Calling and Expected Outcome: A Former Pitcher’s Perspective by Dan Blewett

Pitching tunneling was brought up several times by several speakers but these two came to the same conclusion. The reaction time for a batter to determine the pitch type may be less than previously calculated. It was thought that a hitter had around 225 ms to 275 ms to decide to swing. It’s possible that the time may be under 200 ms and the batter may be keying off the release point.

Also, if a pitcher is struggling, it might be worth looking over at his release point charts (example with Jon Gray). Make sure all the pitches are clustered together and haven’t been recent moving around.
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With the non-waiver trade deadline over, it’s time to focus on mixed-league actionable moves. With most of the trades, a player’s value didn’t change enough to make a roster transaction. For example, Chris Archer was owned in all leagues before the trade from the Rays to Pirates and will be owned in all leagues after the trade. Many of the biggest trades are just mixed-league irrelevant. I ranked the players who should be moving on and off rosters in the next few days as the dust settles.

Note: I’m 100% sure I missed something obvious. There was just a ton of moves. I will update this article as I find more players or my obvious errors are pointed out.

Top Gainers (Waiver Wire Targets)

• Jose Leclerc (Rangers): After the trade of Keone Kela to the Pirates and Jake Diekman to the Diamondbacks, the Rangers have a new closer. The 24-year-old righty has been a dominant setup man this year with a 12.7 K/9 and 2.27 ERA and should be a fine closer. There is a chance Alex Claudio gets this role.

• Kirby Yates (Padres): If owners were reluctant to roster own him with the chance he’d also get traded, they can pick him up now.

• Mychal Givens (Orioles): With Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, and Zach Britton traded away, Givens is in line for a handful of Saves.

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The fantasy baseball season is in the final stretch. This section of road is the easiest going. Owners quit since their team is out of contention and/or they want to concentrate on football. With these quitters out of the way, it’s easier going for the active owners. Here’s a short ramble on how the active owner should approach the subject:

The inspiration for this rant came after I saw my FAAB bids in a league this morning. I was down to $12 in FAAB out of $1000 but $0 bids do exist. I noticed one must add (Yangervis Solarte) and bid $10 on him to keep everyone honest. I won to my surprise.

The reason I was taken off guard was that several teams were holding tons of FAAB dollars. Here are the post FAAB totals.

1. $971
2. $880
3. $767
4. $719
5. $328
6. $314
7. $260
8. $202
9. $168
10. $88
11. $85
12. $75
13. $41
14. $1 <– me
15. $0

This league is supposed to be competitive but only six owners made additions (ranks 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 13). Having some teams not bid is understandable. Some weeks I don’t add players as I have too many players coming off the DL. But nine sitting out?

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Last week’s results were the first major failure in my FAAB estimation procedure. The main issue was that the average NFBC bids were about 1/3 of the expected values after being almost dead on for several weeks.

I’m not going to re-create the formulas I use last week because I’m worried owners held tight to their FAAB for the trade deadline. Almost nothing was spent last week except some owners speculating on Garrett Hampson. Spending has been tight for a couple of weeks. Here are the graphs of the totals spent each week and percentage.

I understand the overall values dollar values leveling off but the percentage change should be similar. From week 7 to 16, the values hovered around 8% to 15% of total FAAB left. The last two week have been the lowest since the first few weeks.

Since this is my first year collecting the data, I’m not sure of the effect of the trade deadline in mixed leagues. While it’s not as big of a deal as in Only leagues, roles are lost and gained as players move around.

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It’s time for the bi-weekly look at under-the-radar pitching prospects. As a reminder, here is what the rankings are and aren’t:

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

• A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.
• The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. These top prospects are already owned in most leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.

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Braves

• Since returning from the DL, Ronald Acuna is leading off with Ender Inciarte batting seventh.
• Charlie Culberson is batting and playing second as Ozzie Albies deals with a hamstring issue.

Brewers

• This team continues to roster too many MLB caliber corner outfielders and first basemen cutting into everyone’s playing time. The team has finally smartened up and is playing Jesus Aguilar every day. Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, and Eric Thames are battling for the right field spot
• Tyler Saladino (.275/.330/.431) has started 12 straight games at shortstop.
• Hernan Perez has been playing a ton of second base recently so I wondered if he was on a hot streak. Nope since he’s hitting just .241/.290/.397 over past 28 days. The problem is that Brad Miller has been horrible (.203/.242/.305) over the same time frame.

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With many hittes returning from the DL after the All-Star break, I decided to examine American League lineups today and the National League ones tomorrow.

Angels

• With Albert Pujols coming back from the DL, there are four players, Shohei Ohtani, Luis Valbuena, Jefry Marte, and Pujols fighting over the first base and designated hitter spots. I expect Pujols and Ohtani, when healthy, to get the most at-bats. It’s a situation to monitor for a few days to see how the Angels will handle the situation.

Astros

• The lineup set at the top but the team has been cycling some players around to find a serviceable shortstop with Carlos Correa out and little production from left field (.243/.319/.386). Kyle Tucker was supposed to be the answer but he’s hit only .139/.205/.167 in 39 PA so far. It’s a small sample but the Astros are trying to repeat as World Series champs so don’t be surprised if they add an outfielder as insurance.

Athletics

• While the batting order has been mixed up since the All-Star game, generally the same players are being used. The only exception is that Chad Pinder (vs LHP) and Dustin Fowler (vs RHP) are in a platoon.

Blue Jays

• Randal Grichuk is playing center field everyday with Kevin Pillar on the DL.
• For owners in deeper leagues, keep an eye on Dwight Smith Jr. who has started in right field the last two games. While the 25-year-old has a little bit of speed and power, his true talent is getting on base (.373 OBP with 12% BB%). His 15% HR/FB rate looks decent but he mainly puts the ball on the ground (50% GB%).
• Lourdes Gurriel is back from the DL and playing with Devon Travis and Aledmys Diaz moving to part-time roles.

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