NL Lineup Analysis (6/14/18)
I’ve been going over lineups at the end of each week for about a month now. I’ve found doing the entire league at the same time is too much for several reasons. From now one, I’m going to take turns between leagues.
Big Five
- Michael Taylor and his 17 stolen bases may be headed to the bench or another team.
- Maikel Franco is riding-the-pine-for-nine since J.P. Crawford has returned from the DL.
- Scott Schebler has heated up over the last 28 days (.329/.406/.494) and is now the Reds leadoff hitter.
- Jon Jay is now the Diamondbacks everyday leadoff hitter.
- Dominic Smith is starting at first base for the Mets but doesn’t hit well enough to be major league first baseman.
Braves
- They are completely set in their ways with a constant lineup. A future change is Ronald Acuna coming off the DL and replacing Charlie Culberson.
Brewers
- This lineup was set until Eric Thames came off the DL. Domingo Santana was playing whenever Braun needed a day off. Now, it’s a complete mess with the team’s two best hitters, Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar in a first base platoon. If an owner has one of the players involved in this mess, monitor the lineups closely before the weekend FAAB run in case a repalcement is needed.
Cardinals
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- Harrison Bader (vs LHP) and Dexter Fowler (vs RHP) are in a right field semi-platoon. I think it has been created to keep Fowler and his inflated contract in the lineup. While a single season’s worth of splits data should not be used for decisions, it looks like the Cards are using them. Fowler has a .613 OPS vs RHP and .308 vs LHP. Bader has a .950 OPS against LHP and .665 against RHP. While Bader is better against right and left-handed pitchers, at least the Cards can “justify” playing Fowler.
Cubs
- With Jason Heyward now hitting and batting second every day, the other two outfield spots are some combination of Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora Jr., Kyle Schwarber, and Ian Happ. Additionally, Zobrist is playing some second base which cuts into the playing time of Javier Baez and Addison Russell. If an owner is looking to pick up or trade for one of these players, they should account for the playing time risk.
Diamondbacks
- Jon Jay is leading off until A.J. Pollock returns.
- Nick Ahmed hits second against lefties.
- Jake Lamb doesn’t always sit against lefties.
Dodgers
- The lineup is constantly changing with the Dodgers using the same non-pitcher lineup just once this season. Some of the recent confusion stems from Justin Turner being day-to-day with a wrist injury.
- Joc Pederson (vs RHP) and Enrique Hernandez (vs LHP) are in a center field platoon.
Giants
- Gorkys Hernandez, Mac Williamson, and Austin Jackson (each right-handed) are in an outfield rotation with Jackson sitting the most.
- Pablo Sandoval is playing first base against right-handed pitching. He sits and Buster Posey plays first base against lefties.
Marlins
- It’s consistent with two platoons. Derek Dietrich (vs RHP) and Cameron Maybin (vs LHP) form one in left field. Maybin has no split while Dietrich’s is 112 points (.782 OPS vs. 670 OPS). J.T. Riddle (vs RHP) and Yadiel Rivera (vs LHP) form one on the left side of the infield with Miguel Rojas swapping back and forth between short and third. I’m not sure why a platoon exists since Rivera can’t hit righties (.413 OPS) or lefties (.568 OPS). It seems like the platoon was created to keep everyone happy.
Mets
- The Adrian Gonzalez experiment is over and Dominic Smith is taking over at first base. Smith’s pessimistic projections don’t have him as a usable option in 15-team leagues. Over 248 PA in the hitter-friendly PCL, he only hit a .110 ISO with two homers.
Nationals
- Playing time and lineup positions are at a premium with both Adam Eaton and Daniel Murphy recently coming off the DL. I’m not sure how the lineup will unfold with Daniel Murphy being able to DH this week.
- Matt Adams and Matt Reynolds are in a first base platoon.
- The outfield is overcrowded with four average or better outfielders (Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton, Juan Soto, Michael A. Taylor). Over the past three games, Eaton, Soto, and Taylor have each sat. The situation looks to be similar to the one in Milwaukee with just too many bats. While Taylor was an above average overall player last season, I could see him being traded for other needs since he’s performing the worst this season (.669 OPS). If Taylor heads to the bench, so will the chance to add to his 17 stolen bases (4th in the majors).
Padres
- Besides Eric Hosmer and Freddy Galvis, the rest of the hitters are in some unknown playing time rotation with everyone not getting full-time at-bats.
Phillies
- With the return of J.P. Crawford, he joins Maikel Franco and Scott Kingery on the left side of the infield. None of the three has hit this season.
Name: AVG/OBP/SLG
Kingery: .211/.269/ .328
Franco: .242/ .282/ .407
Crawford: .200/ .273/ .325
Based off these stats, an owner would assume Kingery and Crawford would be sharing time. That assumption would be wrong. In the six games since Crawford has returned, Franco has been on the bench. I wonder if he peed in Kapler’s Cracklin’ Oat Bran. No matter the reason, Franco is unstartable until he resumes a full-time role.
Pirates
- A consistent lineup with Corey Dickerson (vs LHP) and Gregory Polanco (vs RHP) in an outfield platoon.
- Colin Moran and Josh Bell have swapped spots in the lineup with Moran batting 4th and Bell 6th. Bell is really struggling and has hit just .192/.293/.321 over the last month.
Reds
- The outfield playing time continues to be a rotation but over the last week Scott Schebler has played every day and led off. Jesse Winker (vs RHP) and Adam Duvall (va LHP) are in a platoon. Billy Hamilton and his .559 OPS is still roaming centerfield most of the time.
Rockies
- Fairly steady lineup expect when Carlos Gonzalez recently dealt with a rib injury.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Pirates are rotating 4 OFs in 3 spots, all 4 guys (Meadows, Marte, Polanco, and Dickerson) have sat recently.
Bucs is more like a 4man rotation with Polanco and Meadows being odd man out more often than the other 2
Typo – Mark Reynolds is platooning with Big City, not Matt Reynolds (though I see that Matt Reynolds actually is with the Nats now so that could be confusing – make sure you pick up the right M. Reynolds on the Nats 🙂 ).
Dominic Smith’s season has definitely been disappointing, but I think he could still surprise. Brandon Nimmo had a great season in Vegas in 2016, but was pretty bad there in 2017, .227/.369/.368 with a close to 25% K rate. He was better with the Mets later in the year, and has been much better this year.
Smith was pretty good in Vegas last year, albeit it is Vegas and the PCL, but still good for a 134 wRC+ at age 22. He ISO’d close to .200 in the majors last year, and as pointed out by you guys, power actually has been playing up in the majors compared to the minors.
Now, his K rate has been bad relative to his power numbers. Maybe he was still hampered by injured calf from Spring. Maybe just bummed to have been in AAA. He did lose a lot of weight this off-season, which he needed to, but may have sapped some strength.
His ZIPS projection is .272/.323/.428, 100 wRC+. Not great. But depends on what is out there. His xwOBA in majors last year was .333 with xSLG of .456, so not godawful, really. Doesn’t take into account his slow speed, of course.
Maybe he busts out in majors a la Austin Meadows thus far.
Wilmer looks like he’ll be back soon, and will take some at-bats.
Who else is out there? Hicks? He K’s a lot to and his statcast numbers aren’t better really. Nice babip. Jose Miguel Fernandez? Definitely shinier AAA numbers this year than Dom and a very low K rate. Could give you Yuli Gurriel type numbers with a few more walks. Bauers is off to a nice start.
Actually, Bauers is an interesting comparison. Here are Smith and Bauer’s AAA numbers for career:
Bauers: 797 PA .268/.365/.416 .148 ISO, 12.7% BB 19.9% K, 122 wRC+. 4 months younger. Faster. More walks.
Smith: 748 PA .308/.372/.470, .163 ISO, 9% BB rate 18% K rate, 120 wRC+ (IL v PCL).
I know everyone will be rushing out to grab Bauers if not already gone on Sunday. Smith may end up being a decent consolation prize, despite the poor start. Of course it would be more promising if he’d been raking in PCL.
With Bell struggling, and Kang in AAA, maybe Kang takes some 3B at bats and Moran mans 1B now and then? Although Kang played some SS last night, so he could also spell Mercer.
Updated Giants info:
– Belt returns from DL, likely to take the bulk of first base work (with Posey on occasion against lefties).
– Longoria out with a broken pinky. Hanson and Pablo expected to fill in. Both better against righties, Hanson better this season than Panda. Pablo has priority with Bochy, so I expect he will take the majority of the 3rd baseman time initially.
– Crawford moved up to the 4-spot, but likely will drop with Belt replacing him in the cleanup hole.
I don’t see anything on Belt saying anything other than “next week” as of now.
Panda isn’t just better against righties, he can’t hit lefties at all, not for the last 4 years. Like pitcher bad. He isn’t starting against any lefties no matter where he plays.