Velocity Readings

● I’m continuing to track all fastball velocities on this spreadsheet which is updated when I feel like it.

● Martin Perez’s made a few changes to his delivery and as a side effect, his fastball is up a couple of ticks.

Pérez said he’s using his hips more in his delivery after working with new pitching coach Wes Johnson and his knowledge of biomechanics. Though Pérez insists he’s not necessarily focused on adding velocity, his fastball showed consistent velocity around 95 mph for the second straight start — up from an average of 92.8 mph last season, per Statcast.

“Before, I just used my arms,” Pérez said. “Now, I’m using all my body, and you guys can see the results. I don’t miss inside anymore. One or two, but before, I missed — like I was trying to use all of my upper body. Now, I just stay on the line and just throw the ball in front of my eyes.”

It could be an improvement in his results with his fastball getting the following results at different velocities.

MPH: SwStr%
90: 3.7%
91: 3.9%
92: 3.5%
93: 5.5%
94: 4.9%
95: 7.4%
96: 10.1%

Read the rest of this entry »

If two outfielders are projected for identical stats but one is also qualified at first base, the one with multi-positional eligibility will have additional value. The player gives an owner more flexibility during the draft or auction, allows the owner to maximize at-bats or games played during the season, increasing roster flexibility by having more bench spots to use for pitching, and owners can focus on talent versus position with waiver wire acquisitions. The question being posed today, how much is this extra flexibility worth?

It’s not a simple answer. Over the next few days, various RotoGraph authors, including myself, will provide our takes. Will we come to a solid answer? Probably not or an analyst would have figured it out and the adjustment would already be universally incorporated. We just want to put our best foot forward.

Read the rest of this entry »

I just wrote about some of the players I did not know about from my LABR AL-only league. It’s time for the NL players I didn’t recognize. I figured there would be more on the list because I didn’t do the pre-auction prep work needed to roster full teams. I was wrong. I knew quite a few but a few names didn’t initially

Here are the full AL and NL-only lists.

Most fantasy owners may not agree with the recent #LABR auction values. They may not be even close to rostering as many players. BUT they should look over the players taken and find out why an "expert" wanted them.

AL: https://t.co/uCKWquXmXr

NL: https://t.co/pMafCbEK4O pic.twitter.com/4cCa0yTlU9

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) March 4, 2019

Read the rest of this entry »

This past Saturday night I endured Phoenix’s sun and mid-70’s temperatures (Ed. note: ENDURED?? More like basked in!!!) to participate in this year’s AL LABR acution. While I had been in the room before to help Eno Sarris out, it was my first time under the gun. The first item I noticed was that everyone in the room (besides Eno … don’t remind him, it’s a sore subject) had won at least one major industry league (Tout Wars or LABR) and most multiple times. Almost immediately I thought of this line from Rounders:

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

The spring training fastball velocities are live and available in this spreadsheet with other spring training tidbits.

Note: I’m not sure not detailed and often I’ll be able to go with future notes. MLB.com had a nice free RSS feed with all of their stories and I could quickly find needed information. They ended the feed with no explanation. So now, I’m forced to go to each website to get information. I’m working on a solution but I haven’t found one I’ve liked.

Injuries

● I’m not tracking every injury unless it’s going to cost a position player some regular season time. For pitchers, I never assume they are healthy so they may see more notes. For example, Odubel Herrera has a hamstring strain but should be back in a week. I don’t care … for now.

Odubel Herrera has a Grade 1 hamstring strain and is "coming along," #Phillies manager Gabe Kapler said. Herrera has missed the first four games of spring training and the team is not sure when his first game will be.

— Matt Breen (@matt_breen) February 25, 2019

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m not going to lie. I’m being a little selfish as today’s article is a ranking I needed to personally work through and it’s now an article for everyone. I am grouping and ranking actual/potential closers to know who to reach for on draft day when it comes to Saves.

Note: I’m going to call all these pitchers closers even though some won’t close this season. All these pitchers have the potential to accumulate Saves though the chances for some are slim to none.

I went through the guidelines I use to value closers detailed in my book, The Process. For me, closers have three factors adding to their value:

1. Talent: Bad pitchers rarely become closers.
2. The Job: Possession is 9/10ths of the law.
3. Contending Team: Losing teams trade away their closers at the deadline.

If a closer has all three factors, they make my top tier. Every closer below them is missing one or more of the three traits. Some owners may want to mix tiers or use ADP to find values. Each owner should find the rankings they are the most comfortable using.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m going to be working through news and game action this spring providing bits which may change a player’s talent or playing time projections.

Injuries

● Carlos Martinez’s playing time and role are unknown after his latest injury.

Continuing concerns about areas of weakness around Carlos Martinez’s right shoulder prompted the Cardinals to transfer the right-hander to a two-week, no-throwing program that now puts his readiness for Opening Day in jeopardy.

Manager Mike Shildt relayed the change in plan on Tuesday, one day after Martinez was sent away for an MRI of his shoulder. Though the scan showed no change from a baseline test in 2016, the club is concerned about possible adverse effects if Martinez was to continue pitching through weakness in the surrounding muscles.

Martinez was candid, too, in telling the Cardinals’ medical staff that he “felt a little bit of inflammation and weakness” while throwing his last bullpen session. He won’t throw again until at least March 5.

This injury is not good for a pitcher with already suspect health. I wonder if it pushes him more towards the bullpen. I’d not be surprised to see his ADP drop from 126 to near 200 with the news.

Read the rest of this entry »

A few days back, I determined the replacement levels for hitters who will miss some time this upcoming season. Today, the pitchers take center stage.

It’s tough to give any pitcher a full season of innings with almost half of them heading to the IL. Today’s focus is to find those pitchers who won’t see a full workload for one reason or another. Workload limits. Injuries. Time in minors. Since the missed time is known, an owner can the fill in the rest of the season with a replacement pitcher. It’s time to dive in.

Injured or coming off Tommy Surgery

Note: The standard minimum return time from Tommy John surgery is now 14 months. No one in years has come back in 12. I’m skipping any pitcher who had a mid-season or later surgery since they may just be back for a few September starts. I’m not going to worry about September starts in Spring Training.

Brandon Morrow
Out until: ~May 1st

While it may be a mistake, I’m fading Morrow hard. He’s an injury-prone pitcher who is starting the season hurt. And for a closer, he’s good (~2.00 ERA the past three seasons) but not great (9.1 K/9 in 2018). I could see Pedro Stroop take the job and run with it over the first month. When Morrow returns, he may never get another Save. He’s a late round DL stash for now.

Read the rest of this entry »