Spring Traning Notes: Perez, Junis, Betances, & Others
Velocity Readings
● I’m continuing to track all fastball velocities on this spreadsheet which is updated when I feel like it.
● Martin Perez’s made a few changes to his delivery and as a side effect, his fastball is up a couple of ticks.
Pérez said he’s using his hips more in his delivery after working with new pitching coach Wes Johnson and his knowledge of biomechanics. Though Pérez insists he’s not necessarily focused on adding velocity, his fastball showed consistent velocity around 95 mph for the second straight start — up from an average of 92.8 mph last season, per Statcast.
“Before, I just used my arms,” Pérez said. “Now, I’m using all my body, and you guys can see the results. I don’t miss inside anymore. One or two, but before, I missed — like I was trying to use all of my upper body. Now, I just stay on the line and just throw the ball in front of my eyes.”
It could be an improvement in his results with his fastball getting the following results at different velocities.
MPH: SwStr%
90: 3.7%
91: 3.9%
92: 3.5%
93: 5.5%
94: 4.9%
95: 7.4%
96: 10.1%
It was nearly twice as effective at its new speed than the previous one. One problem is that no matter how much his fastball improves, his other pitches are lacking. His best non-fastball is his change but it just gets a 13% SwStr%. His curve (4% SwStr%) and slider (10%) are below average.
● Only one Spring Training facility has publicly available Trackman and luckily Jakob Junis threw at it. His fastball jumped by over 2 mph and he was trying to throw his change more.
Results on Junis's fastball at different velos:
MPH: SwStr%, GB%
89: 3.9%, 34%
90: 4.2%, 34%
91: 5.3%, 37%
92: 6.6%, 40%
93: 8.3%, 44%— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) March 10, 2019
Junis went the full “Corbin” last season by throwing his slider 39% of the time so there was little room for improvement there. But he found another way. He’s now in play in all formats, even he if starts the season as a bench option.
● Dellin Betances’s fastball is down near 91 mph with him sitting near 98 mph during the season. He knows about the drop.
“I won’t be all the way until May,’’ Betances said of when the velocity — which routinely pushes the gun to near triple digits — will return. “I have done this already. It’s always been a topic. Whenever Dellin Betances is throwing 88 to 90 everybody freaks out and panics.’’
It’s not even in Spring Training he has the lower velocity. It starts down during the regular season.

Knowing this trend (4.91 ERA in April last season), I’m completely out from rostering him. He’s a middle reliever and others will be going full effort while he ramps up. There is no way I’ll carry and middle reliever on my bench for a month.
● Michael Fulmer is sitting 88-92 after several appearances which is down 6 mph from last season. He may not be draftable at this low velocity.
Other notes
● While I need to catch Merrill Kelly’s last appearance, here is a small taste of his four scoreless innings.
● Unless there is an injury to a major leaguer, Clint Frazier will start the season in the minors.
● Ian Kinsler will leadoff for the Padres … at least until he’s forced to move spots.
● Shohei Ohtani backs off hitting to concentrate on pitching. I’m still amazed at how early he goes in drafts (234 NFBC ADP) with so much playing time downside.
● Marwin Gonzalez will replace Miguel Sano as the Twins third baseman until Sano returns in May.
● Brad Peacock is the leading contender for the Astros 5th rotation spot. Right now the rotation looks to be Verlander, Cole, McHugh, Miley, and Peacock.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
How do you view Peacock as a starter? Top 45 pitcher?
So a 4.91 ERA in 11 innings is a “trend,” now? Betances had a 1.64 xFIP in April last year…Looking at his recent and career monthly splits I see no reason whatsoever to consider benching him in April. And even if the velocity lowers his effectiveness temporarily, what does that do? Bring his April ERA from a 2.50 to a 3.00, at worst?
What’s a Traning? Just kidding, Jeff. Thanks for the velo updates.
I think Ohtani is going early because of what he did as a rookie. What if he is actually a better hitter then he showed? What if he is a true talent 160 wRC+ guy? I.e second best hitter in the MLB besides the other guy on his team. I mean, he was a rookie last year. Why won’t he be expected to improve? 22 hrs in 367 PA. I get that he is expected to regress, but he is also a rookie. What if 150 wRC+ is his baseline? I don’t think it is unfair to question whether or not he pitches going forward. If his bat is as good as it is been thus far why would they do anything other than use him as a RP? That to me makes the most sense. He also has shown the ability to make adjustments as he literally changed his entire swing last year in spring training and put up a 152 wRC+ which was trending upwards once he got shutdown pitching.
I think he is an absolute steal at his current draft position, as he is basically the only guy in the entire major leagues who we have no idea what his floor or ceiling is. 400 at bats of 150 wRC+? Sounds good to me. I truly think he will one day become a position player/RP. Something like RF/1st + Set up guy. It is what makes the most sense as scouting also has him as a ++ runner, and a ++ defender.
I drafted him right around ADP but I’m only planning on using him part-time anyway. Only vs righties or on off days if I need him to field a full lineup (until he shows he can produce against lefties, at least). I am very happy to have him.
It’s a 13 team league so if I need to replace him I am confident I’ll be able to find a good replacement. And I am loaded with multi-position eligibles, so him being Util only is not much of an issue for me, as I have the flexibility to work around him elsewhere.
I can imagine the fact that he’s on a west coast team may cause some headaches if there’s no discernible pattern to when he plays, but I really don’t think having to ultimately drop someone picked in the last 1/3 of the draft is that big a deal.
Wow, ++ defense at DH is rad!
I’ve been loving Jake Junis in drafts this season. Glad to see I’m not crazy!