Sunday Night Fantasy Baseball Chat by Jeff Zimmerman February 23, 2019 7:59 Schilling & Pence: Now that Zips projections are done, have the depth charts projections been updated? 7:59 Jeff Zimmerman: Let me look 8:00 Jeff Zimmerman: Not yet 8:00 Jeff Zimmerman: They probably will once ZiPs is added to the projection list 8:01 another bad dynasty manager: Hi Jeff: I’m in a 16 tm 12 kpr pts. league with a minimal deduction for Ks by batters (-.25). I need to choose btw Laureano and C. Hernandez as my final keeper. Hiura is on my prospect bench. I traded away my first pick so I won’t be drafting until late in the second rd. Thx for these Sun. night chats! (Other OFs that will be kprs: Hicks, Peralta, & Robles) 8:02 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d stick with Cesar. I see a bounce back after playing hurt for most of the 2018 season. 8:02 Baloney Bologna: With NFBC ADP’s being fairly accurate to the educated fantasy person, but of course personal ranks leading to reaches – how far of a reach is reasonable, balancing wanting a guy and knowing he generally goes BLANK picks later… I realize this changes throughout the draft, but looking for a rough guideline, from your perspective. Thanks! 8:03 Jeff Zimmerman: Here is how to find out on the availability chances: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/adp-availability-workbook/ 8:03 Jeff Zimmerman: I normally take my players once the availiblity drops to 80% 8:04 Jeff Zimmerman: I found I need to push it up to 95% in early drafts 8:04 Jack: Is Javy Baez a top 25 guy? 8:04 Jeff Zimmerman: Comes down to format. The steals and extra positions help in standard Roto 8:04 Mike NC: NL 11 team auction league. Keeping Buehler 8, Folty 3, Pivetta 1, Gennett 8. Need to pick 4 of this group of 7 for last 4 keepers: Rendon 29, Conforto 18, Suarez 26, Moustakas 17, T Turner 33, C Hernandez 11, Greinke 22, Burnes 2 8:05 Jeff Zimmerman: Conforto is the easy one 8:05 Jeff Zimmerman: And Turner 8:06 Jeff Zimmerman: It comes down if you have a CI. I like Moose and Suarez but you may have too many 3B. Maybe Greinke instead 8:06 Stinky Cheddar: Most intriguing sleeper spring training stories for you? Im thinking David Bote, that type of thing. you? 8:07 Jeff Zimmerman: Pineda, complete wild card 8:07 Paul: The auction calculator is giving me a negative positional adjustment for DH-only players. In general, I think I understand the idea of positional adjustments, but this seems off to me. Do you agree with a potential negative adjustment, or is it an odd quirk better to be added back in? 8:08 Jeff Zimmerman: It does hit Util-only too much. In most instances, I’d remove all position adjustments except catcher. 8:08 Pete: Will Nick Senzel with the starting CF job for the Reds? They seem to not be overly concerned with service time, instead planning for the best lineup angle 8:08 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s looking like they’ll call him up after the two weeks in the minors. 8:09 Dave: How concerned are you about kershaw this season? 8:09 Jeff Zimmerman: Very. I may take Greinke over him. 8:09 Chuck: Can I count on Francisco Mejia getting enough playing time to serve at catcher in a 14-team league? 8:09 Jeff Zimmerman: He got it last season. I think so in at least a month 8:10 Frank: Forever keeper, is eloy/Tatis fair value for kluber/kershaw? 8:10 Jeff Zimmerman: Sure if it helps to contend for a title this season 8:10 Jeff Zimmerman: If the team is contending, don’t trade the prospects 8:11 Jackson: In a 5X5 H2H league (w OBP not BA) with 12 teams, I may keep (as long as I like) only 3 players, and let me add that these fools I compete with LOVE SP’s. Candidates to keep are J Soto, Stanton, Yelich, Buehler, or Kluber. My inclination is to drop Stanton given the youth of Yelich and Soto, and keep Kluber, hoping to get Buehler in Round 6. Your thoughts, J. Z.?(Those ARE your initials.) 8:11 Jeff Zimmerman: I prefer going by Jay-Z … no I don’t. 8:12 Jeff Zimmerman: If keep forever, I keep Beuhler instead of Kluber 8:12 Next in Line: What under the radar relievers do you see possibly stealing some saves as the season moves along? 8:13 Jeff Zimmerman: Hughes in Cin. There is talk Iglesias will take on a Hader role and Hughes could grab some Saves. 8:13 deb81162: What is the plan in LAA at 1B/DH. How do you see these 3 Ohtani, Pujols and Bour getting time? Are the going to platoon Pujols and Bour, with Bour getting all the RHP? 8:14 Jeff Zimmerman: No idea except Ohtani is sitting for a month. I think Bour and Pujols are safe for a month as long as they stay healthy. 8:14 Mike: Do you have any tips for those playing in H2H points leagues? 8:15 Jeff Zimmerman: Maximize PA and IP. Razzball has the best in-season tool to help with this. I think it is around $20 and so worth the time it saves for less than $1 a week. 8:15 Johnny5Alive: Greinke @$29 or Wheeler @$22 in NL only, 13 team roto league with $270 salary cap 8:15 Jeff Zimmerman: Both 8:16 Jeff Zimmerman: If needing to make a decision, Wheeler. 8:17 JG: 8 team NL only limited keeper (3-yr. contracts). Are Arenado and Blackmon too expensive to keep at $45/$35 respectively? Lot of inflation in league as guys like Baez, Acuna, Albies, are kept at $10 and Taillon and J. Aguilar at $6 but outside of Scherzer at $42, elite players usually go in the $27-$37 area when they come off of the league’s 3-year contracts. Arenado and Blackmon were purchased going into the 2017 season, and the league had 10 teams so their value was inflated by a combination of league size, their ages and recent performance. 8:17 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d keep them. Maybe send back Nolan 8:17 Monroe: Who are your favorite late round source for SBs? Is it worth chasing steals at the risk of bombing other cats? 8:17 Jeff Zimmerman: DeShields 8:17 Jeff Zimmerman: Ramon L 8:17 Jeff Zimmerman: Mullins 8:18 Yoohoo: Keep forever category league and not in contention this year. Trade my JD for Soto straight up? 8:18 Jeff Zimmerman: Yess 8:19 Cito’s Mustache: If my dynasty team is contending, should I even think about trading Verlander for a top prospect before age catches up? Or just ride him into the ground and enjoy the production? 8:19 Jeff Zimmerman: Flags fly forever. Keep him 8:20 Moose : In 10tm h2h, that adds OPS and 10 can be kept forever, but at 1st round cost after kept once, which 4 do you prefer:Moncada (12th)Gallo (13th)Albies (14th)Mondesi (26th)Thor (6th)Carrasco (6th)Correa (6th)Tatis Jr. (26th)Planning to keep Trout, T Turner, Benintendi, Rizzo, Bellinger as top 5 pics and Vlad Jr at 19th rounder. Sorry for long question, but struggling and dealing is approaching 8:21 Jeff Zimmerman: Tatis, Carrasco, Correa, Mondesi. I could see Tatis or Mondesi fail but they cost you nothing. 8:21 joe: would i be crazy for thinking Dominguez will have most value in Phils bullpen this year? 8:21 Jeff Zimmerman: A little. Robertson is good 8:21 John Oleruds Helmet: Mr Jeff!!! Oh honored one!! I bow in your digital presence!!! In an AL league that tends to spend heavily on saves should I hold onto Allen and Giles or send em back into the draft? 8:21 Jeff Zimmerman: Hold. You can maybe trade 8:22 kevinthecomic: You can always move to Canada or England where your name would be Jay-Zed, which is lame and wouldn’t be a thing. 8:22 Jeff Zimmerman: True 8:23 Vic: If the worse case scenario for Buxton is Billy Hamilton, that’s not that bad from a fantasy perspective, correct? 8:24 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’ll be more just based on having more power. 8:24 oswald : Are you a big believer in a Tyler Glasnow breakout this year? 8:25 Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, I broke him down and I can’t argue with his standard projection. With his stance, I will get no shares of him. 8:25 Tom: One guy you are targeting in every draft? 8:25 Jeff Zimmerman: Knebel, love him at his price but that could change 8:26 Gene: What’s the biggest difference in strategy for H2h Categories versus Roto? It seems most articles are written about Roto, but since I am in a h2h league, I wasn’t sure how to use that information properly 8:27 Jeff Zimmerman: Weekly roster churn is higher in H2H and depending on the scoring, just one win for the week or category win totals, category punting can be better option. 8:27 einstein2u: need to keep one: bieber, glasnow, or pivetta? 8:27 Jeff Zimmerman: Glasnow 8:27 Dan: How much do you le Corey Seager this year? In dynasty? Thanks 8:28 Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve never been a fan of him. It’s not a great fantasy toolset. He’s very comparable to his brother 8:29 Tim: Trying my first few best ball drafts, which seem to drive up ace value a bit. Nobody else in the league is valuing them the same (some of these guys seem to be drafting ADP0), so I went ace-ace in rounds 1 and 2, and Carrasco is still there for me in round 3. Hate waiting this long on hitter, but feels like too much value to pass up. At what point do you ditch your valuation-based value and take a hitter instead based on need? Or will the draft even out for me as the other owners start to compensate with lesser pitchers later? 8:29 Jeff Zimmerman: For best ball, I like being SP heavy on those few aces, draft hitters for 15-rounds, and then go SP heavy 8:30 Jeff Zimmerman: I really push of multi-position guys, especially good ones like Bellinger 8:30 Harpers Bizarre: Is it wishful thinking or blind faith that makes me believe change of scenery, pillow contract and a sense of urgency force Avisial Garcia to finally turn into the SuperHero “Little Miggy” ? Or does history and reality force him to remain BelowAverageHero “Little Piggy” 8:31 Jeff Zimmerman: He needs playing time first. Maybe DH. He’s a great signing by Tampa for depth but not good for his fantasy value 8:31 Jake : Hoskins, buehler or Severino can only keep 2. H2H Roto with walks and OBP. Quality starts, HRA and standard categories for pitching. All would be kept as last round picks if kept. Who do you throw back? 8:32 Jeff Zimmerman: Buehler. Previous injuries scare me off 8:32 DaveW: Does Cedric Mullins have any value this season? 8:33 Jeff Zimmerman: I could easily see him out earn Albies. He has 15/25 potential 8:33 Paul: Regarding H2H and different strategies depending on whether it’s one win for the week or one for each cat, I don’t see much difference. In a 12 team league where 6 make the playoffs, just about .500 will get you in. And once you’re in, it is just win the week and move on— total categories don’t matter anymore. In short, if you win by just one cat all year, you’re the champ. 8:33 Jeff Zimmerman: Six make the playoff? Whoa. It’s like the NBA 8:34 kevinthecomic: Which of the following 2018 Cinderella’s have the greatest chance to turn into pumpkins this year: Luke Voit, Jonathan Villar, Joey Wendle? 8:35 Jeff Zimmerman: Wendle, I didn’t buy the break out 8:36 RMR: How much do you consider how many SB attempts a team has had in past years when a player changes to gauge SB projections? Thinking Profar moving to Oakland (they dont attempt many steals at all). How much of this is just personnel? 8:37 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t weight a ton. It’s a factor though. One thing, if I’m counting on Profar for Saves, I need to address the category with other players. 8:37 Heathcliff Slocumb: With so few bullpen roles sorted out and the season opening just over 3 weeks from now, what’s the best strategy when it comes to meeting keeper deadlines? For example, my choice is between Trevor May and Kelvin Herrera- when all else is equal in this regard, take the better talent, better path to saves, or least injury risk? 8:38 Jeff Zimmerman: Saves then talent then injury. It’s a tough time if drafting now and the first FAAB run is interesting 8:38 call 1 866 Descalso: Archer didn’t do any better in Pitts than the AL east, with the NL central being stacked does he have a chance to break into the 3 ERA range again? 8:38 Jeff Zimmerman: Probably not until he develops a good third pitch 8:38 Vegan Man!: 12 team roto (OPS), 5 keepers. Would you move Blackmon pre-draft for either Gallo or Xander? Other 4 keepers are Harper, Stanton, Cole, Nola. Thank you! 8:38 Jeff Zimmerman: No 8:38 diadem: Who ends up with the most PT between Renfroe/Reyes/Margot/Cordero or is the jury still out ending ST results. 8:39 Jeff Zimmerman: Why don’t we go hunting unicorns and figure out the Dodgers rotation? 8:39 Will: Dahl finally going to get everyday ABs? 8:40 Jeff Zimmerman: I think so, but for fantasy purposes, he shouldn’t be started on the road or against lefties. 8:40 Vegan Man!: Cuts due tonight for my 14 team dynasty points league. Would you move Ke’Bryan Hayes and Corey Ray for Stripling? I’d have to forfeit my 1st round pick in order to keep Stripling. 1st round has historically been reserved for the top draft picks from the amateur draft, and some decent closers (of which I already have 3). Thank you! 8:40 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d make the trade with Hayes being the focus. Don’t be afraid to cut Ray. He may be toast 8:41 another bad dynasty manager: Jeff: in deep leagues, which SP do you like better? Castillo or DeSclafani? Thx! 8:41 Jeff Zimmerman: Castillo 8:41 Ron: Gallo a good value in OBP league? 40 HRs? 8:41 Jeff Zimmerman: I love him in OBP 8:41 call 1 866 Descalso: Does Kershaw drop to 3rd round with this new injury in early drafts? 8:42 Jeff Zimmerman: He already did in a recent draft of mine. 8:42 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m out until he throws pain free for a few innings. 8:42 David: What can we expect from Cano this year? Toss up right now at whether he is my last keeper or not. 8:43 Jeff Zimmerman: Cano will be Cano. A fine steady contributor. 8:43 David: Nick Pivetta. He has had strong K numbers, but can he start to put it all together this year? 8:43 Jeff Zimmerman: I like Pivetta but some does the rest of the world. He’ll be helped by Hoskins going to 1B 8:44 call 1 866 Descalso: Does Brantley pick up his game even more in Houston and go back to his prime numbers, or is he what he is at 31 8:44 Jeff Zimmerman: There is no pickup unless it is plate appearance related 8:44 Trent: Moncada a good post hype sleeper? 20/20 this yr? 8:45 Jeff Zimmerman: First, he needs to make contact with the baseball. 8:45 LA Mike: Is there anyway that Julio Urias gets a opportunity sooner than expected in the Dodgers starting rotation? 8:45 Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think he’ll have baby gloves on to start the season and then the Dodgers will stretch him out for the 2nd half 8:46 Chucky: 12 team H2H 6×6 OBP, keep 10 no contracts, Betts for Altuve/Bellinger 8:46 Jeff Zimmerman: I think I would. 8:46 Sam: Better bounceback candidate – Bryant or Correa? 8:46 Jeff Zimmerman: Neither, I’m worried about both 8:47 joe: Is Flaherty at $23 too high to keep in an NL only where top pitchers go $30+? 8:47 Jeff Zimmerman: He may be too high. Tough call 8:47 Chet: Who do you think is the cubs 4th starter? Is there any value there, despite the iffy bullpen? 8:47 Jeff Zimmerman: Keuchel 8:48 Vegan Man!: 14 team dynasty points league – Nimmo and Corey Ray or Mazara? Thanks! 8:48 Jeff Zimmerman: Mazara 8:48 High 5 Ghost: Are you drafting Rafael Devers this year? 8:49 Jeff Zimmerman: No, and it’s not because I don’t like him. I’ve found my best late draft bargains or 3B (Moose, Lamb, Seager). I’m fading 3B if I don’t get one in the first round 8:49 Corbin Burnes: I’m planning to pitch 170 innings with 180 so this season. Over/under 8:49 Jeff Zimmerman: under 8:50 Shortstops: Who is more legit as a fantasy stud: Story or Baez? 8:50 Jeff Zimmerman: Story if he stays in CO 8:50 He’s a Dahl: Is it worth grabbing vladito with my second round pick, given he could then be kept at round 2 for the next three years? Is there value gain there or is he realistically just a round 2 kinda player over the next few years 8:51 Jeff Zimmerman: In a keeper format, he would not get out of the first round if I was picking 8:51 Johnny5Alive: Tapia get any playing time this year? Worth $6 in NL only? 8:51 Jeff Zimmerman: Not right now. 8:52 joe: are you willing to bid over $10 for John Gray in NL only? 8:53 Jeff Zimmerman: No, I hate CO pitcher in NL-only since it is tough to find streaming options. 8:53 Margot: Do i break out this year? 8:53 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so 8:53 Kareem Mahpants: What are your thoughts on Tyler O’Neil this year. Does he get regular time? Dude has power. 8:54 Jeff Zimmerman: But he is one of the worst hitters in the league on fastballs. 23% SwStr$ on fastballs.He’s never going to be good if he can’t hit a fastball 8:54 Jack: Just tuning in here so not sure if you covered this yet. What’s your best guess on how the Cardinals deal with C.Mart and Alex Reyes? Both starting or will one or both end up in the bullpen? 8:55 Jeff Zimmerman: EOS guess .. CMart in bullpen, Reyes starting but it may be a mess between now and then. 8:55 Sawx: 1) keep 2 – syndergaard, severino, buehler. 8:55 Jeff Zimmerman: Not Thor 8:55 DaveW: Do the Angels ever give Matt Thaiss a shot at 1b? 8:56 Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe soon than later, especially if Pujols gets hurt before Ohtani is healthy 8:56 SelfWorship: Do you think Garrett Hampson earns/keeps a starting gig this season? If so, what sort of SB output should we expect? 8:57 Jeff Zimmerman: I think it is a platoon to start with and the hot hand will get the job. Toss up at this point. 8:57 Rob: First pick first year player draft, dynasty keep forever. Need pitching and catchers. Bart or Mize? 8:58 Jeff Zimmerman: Mize, find a catcher 8:58 Vic Romano: 5×5 roto cats with OPS and K’s added. Keep forever league. Pick two of the three – Mazara, Mallex, Pham. 8:58 Jeff Zimmerman: Mazara and Pham 8:59 Matt: In drafts this year, is there one position or category you’re waiting on more often? 8:59 Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll wait on 5th and on SP, OF, 3B 9:00 Timmy: It seems like you are down on albies. Is that just for this season or long term? 9:00 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’ll be fine it just his price is too high right now 9:00 Jeff Zimmerman: I see him being similar to Elvis Andrus 9:01 Jeff Zimmerman: Well, that’s it for the night. I may chat next week but not sure. I’m in AZ for Spring Training and LABR auctions.