It’s now time to go over the American League lineups. I feel some are just not set but it’s interesting seeing some of the early season adjustments.
Angels
Today finishes my examination of starting pitcher pitch mix and velocity from the first two days of the month. Some of the starters overlap from my first article and I used their combined numbers.
My goal in examining these starters is to find ones who have changed over the offseason. As owners, we may need to immediately adjust our projections. Also, to save space, when I mention a pitch changes a certain percentage, I mean percentage points (ex. up 10% = up 10% points or from 12% to 22%).
A few days ago, I examined the pitch mix and velocity for all the Opening Day starts. Today, I tried to catch up but failed. I just couldn’t examine another 30 pitchers. Tomorrow, I’m going to try my hardest to give a glimpse at everyone remaining.
My goal in examining these starters is to find ones who have changed over the offseason. As owners, we may need to immediately adjust our projections. Since there is a ton to get through, here are the daily starters ordered by fastball velocity change. Also, to save space, when I mention a pitch changes a certain percentage, I mean percentage points (ex. up 10% = up 10% points).
Another week into the season and another week of drops. I’ve categorized all the drops in 10 or more NFBC Main Event Leagues and some other names I find interesting.
| 7:33 |
: I’m going to focus on answering WW and FAAB question and then go back through and answer general fantasy questions.
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| 7:33 |
: In a 10 team h2h 6×6 with ops and k/9, what % should I be bidding on Kike Hernandez and Corbin Burnes?
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| 7:33 |
: 3% to 5% each
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| 7:33 |
: top 3 waiver wire adds?
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| 7:34 |
: Way too vague
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| 7:34 |
: Jay Bruce, Kole Calhoun or Scott Schebler going forward?
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Last season, I started collecting FAAB bids from the NFBC Main Event to help estimate the player costs. It’s time to start the 2019 estimates for week two. The process is far from perfect but it does provide a bidding guideline. I use the NFBC Main Event because it contains 37 15-team leagues but each individual league is going to have its own unique dynamics. Understanding and trackings the differences are key for each owner. Owners need to take these player guesstimates and see how they compare to their own league. It may seem like too much work but can really help to determine how much to spend.
In our book, The Process, Tanner Bell and I broke down the 2018 FAAB bidding in detail going over the various trends. We found that player bids fit into three types:
Here are this week’s estimated FAAB with the ownership percentages from CBSSportsline and bid estimates for the NFBC Main Event ($1000 Budget, low bid of $1). I use CBS’s ownership rates since they divide the ownership by weeks but also allow daily pickups. An early player demand rate can be seen from these daily pickups.
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolten Wong 2B | STL | 6% | 15% | 9% | $34 |
| Chad Pinder LF | OAK | 11% | 17% | 6% | $31 |
| Tim Beckham SS | SEA | 17% | 53% | 36% | $146 |
| Enrique Hernandez CF | LAD | 15% | 50% | 35% | $138 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B | TB | 20% | 33% | 13% | $50 |
| Greg Bird 1B | NYY | 17% | 27% | 10% | $41 |
| Adam Frazier 2B | PIT | 22% | 25% | 3% | $33 |
| Ryon Healy 1B | SEA | 22% | 33% | 11% | $46 |
| Jung Ho Kang 3B | PIT | 27% | 40% | 13% | $55 |
| Joc Pederson LF | LAD | 27% | 43% | 16% | $64 |
| Austin Barnes C | LAD | 31% | 40% | 9% | $49 |
| Jorge Alfaro C | MIA | 29% | 34% | 5% | $41. |
| Kole Calhoun RF | LAA | 30% | 34% | 4% | $40 |
| Troy Tulowitzki SS | NYY | 30% | 40% | 10% | $51 |
| Jonathan Lucroy C | LAA | 32% | 35% | 3% | $40 |
| Niko Goodrum 2B | DET | 37% | 54% | 17% | $79 |
| Adam Jones CF | ARI | 36% | 42% | 6% | $48 |
| Fernando Tatis SS | SD | 56% | 88% | 32% | $184 |
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Rogers RP | MIN | 5% | 14% | 9% | $51 |
| Matt Shoemaker SP | TOR | 6% | 13% | 7% | $27 |
| Bryse Wilson RP | ATL | 8% | 20% | 12% | $31 |
| Greg Holland RP | ARI | 14% | 46% | 32% | $133 |
| Eric Lauer SP | SD | 14% | 57% | 43% | $98 |
| Jordan Zimmermann SP | DET | 9% | 18% | 9% | $28 |
| Pablo Lopez SP | MIA | 12% | 32% | 20% | $41 |
| Wily Peralta RP | KC | 14% | 20% | 6% | $49 |
| Frankie Montas SP | OAK | 10% | 20% | 10% | $29 |
| Jeremy Jeffress RP | MIL | 16% | 24% | 8% | $52 |
| Dakota Hudson RP | STL | 21% | 39% | 18% | $40 |
| Domingo German SP | NYY | 27% | 42% | 15% | $37 |
| Kyle Wright RP | ATL | 24% | 37% | 13% | $34 |
| Caleb Smith SP | MIA | 26% | 38% | 12% | $33 |
| Wade Miley SP | HOU | 29% | 40% | 11% | $33 |
| Trevor Richards SP | MIA | 32% | 54% | 22% | $49 |
| Matthew Boyd SP | DET | 30% | 38% | 8% | $31 |
| Matt Harvey SP | LAA | 35% | 44% | 9% | $33 |
| Freddy Peralta SP | MIL | 37% | 81% | 44% | $110 |
| Jake Junis SP | KC | 38% | 49% | 11% | $35 |
| Brandon Woodruff RP | MIL | 39% | 63% | 24% | $56 |
| David Hernandez RP | CIN | 2% | 3% | 1% | $25 |
| Cory Gearrin RP | SEA | 1% | 1% | 0% | $25 |
| Blake Parker RP | MIN | 11% | 14% | 3% | $26 |
Thoughts:
If any stat can be monitored with a small sample, it’s pitch velocity. Fastball velocity stabilized with a sample of ‘1’. Just one fastball is enough to know a pitcher’s velocity going forward. I collected the Opening Day starters’ fastball velocities and compared them to last year’s values. It’s all we can really do at this point in the season.
Additionally, I compared this year’s and last year’s pitch mix. Mainly, I was hoping to find if a starter dumped or added a pitch. I didn’t mention a pitch if its usage didn’t change by 10% points or more.
I’ve been considering this article’s concept for a while and am going to try it out for a couple of weeks and see if it is useful. I’ll spend three hours catching an hour of three different games and writing my thoughts and diving into deeper into areas of fantasy interest. Here is take #1 and let me know your thoughts.
As the regular season nears, I’m trying to stay on top of any lineup changes. It’s the National League’s turn to go under the microscope.
Arizona
Atlanta Read the rest of this entry »
It’s time to overly exaggerate some of my pre-season hunches and create some BOLD predictions.
Note: For the rankings, I will use our auction calculator. For ADP, I’m using the NFBC ADP from 12 Main Event leagues which drafted from March 22nd to March 25th.
1. Jung Ho Kang will be a top-10 starting third baseman by season’s end.
He is being drafted as the 26th third baseman off the board this past weekend. This prediction was easy. In 2015, he was the 15th overall third baseman in 467 PA. Why not the same production in 600 PA?
