Week Seven FAAB Estimates

by
May 4, 2019

There are a couple of big names this week, Lowe and Canning, and some potential closer roles up for grabs but overall it’s a slow week.

The guidelines

    • The ownership rates are from CBS since some of their leagues are quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
    • The FAAB estimates are based for 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used $1000 FAAB. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
    • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
    • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS are examined.

2019 Week 7 Pitcher FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Luke Jackson RP | ATL 0% 13% 13% $54
Chris Martin RP | TEX 0% 3% 3% $41
Jefry Rodriguez SP | CLE 2% 7% 5% $24
Tyler Beede SP | SF 2% 6% 4% $23
Manny Banuelos SP | CHW 3% 8% 5% $24
Zac Gallen SP | MIA 4% 8% 4% $24
John Means RP | BAL 6% 19% 13% $30
John Brebbia RP | STL 6% 9% 3% $42
Emilio Pagan RP | TB 8% 41% 33% $132
Hansel Robles RP | LAA 8% 17% 9% $48
Andrew Cashner SP | BAL 8% 16% 8% $26
Martin Perez SP | MIN 11% 42% 31% $61
Chris Bassitt SP | OAK 11% 28% 17% $35
Antonio Senzatela SP | COL 11% 14% 3% $24
Shawn Kelley RP | TEX 12% 26% 14% $59
Anthony DeSclafani SP | CIN 13% 37% 24% $47
Griffin Canning SP | LAA 15% 58% 43% $97
Drew Pomeranz RP | SF 15% 22% 7% $26
Felix Hernandez SP | SEA 19% 24% 5% $25
Casey Mize SP | DET 21% 29% 8% $27
Spencer Turnbull SP | DET 22% 32% 10% $29
Sergio Romo RP | MIA 22% 30% 8% $49
Dakota Hudson RP | STL 22% 27% 5% $26
Gio Gonzalez SP | MIL 23% 26% 3% $25
Merrill Kelly SP | ARI 25% 36% 11% $31
John Gant SP | STL 26% 33% 7% $49
Reynaldo Lopez SP | CHW 27% 44% 17% $38
Adam Wainwright SP | STL 27% 40% 13% $33
Jake Odorizzi SP | MIN 36% 50% 14% $37
CC Sabathia SP | NYY 36% 40% 4% $28
Jerad Eickhoff RP | PHI 38% 55% 17% $41
Jake Junis SP | KC 38% 42% 4% $28
Jeff Samardzija SP | SF 44% 49% 5% $30
Hector Neris RP | PHI 45% 50% 5% $53
Blake Parker RP | MIN 47% 56% 9% $60

Thoughts on some of the pitchers:

● Most the big movers this week are bullpen arms. Here is how I’d rank the closers or potential closers in the above table.

  • Pedro Strop
  • Hector Neris
  • Blake Parker
  • … (gap)
  • Sergio Romo
  • … (gap)
  • Hansel Robles
  • Shawn Kelley
  • Luke Jackson
  • Emilio Pagan
  • Chris Martin
  • John Gant

I’d probably place Ty Buttrey ahead of Jackson. In most Roto leagues, the first four should be 100% owned and most in the third group. Owners are gambling on the Angels, Rangers, and Atlanta situation. Another situation to take on chance is the Seattle bullpen. Anthony Swarzak has allowed a run in four of his last five appearances with one Loss and two Blown Saves. Feel free to speculate on Roenis Elias, Brandon Brennan, and Connor Sadzeck.

● Griffin Canning: He’s owned in most deeper leagues where he could be picked up last week. In the NFBC, owners could not pick him up since the rules state that unless a player was drafted, they can’t be bid on until they play in the majors. The bidding could go high. In Tout Wars last weekend, he went for $88 and $131 in the two 15-team mixed leagues.

● Martin Perez: He was bad. Then he threw harder and was good. Then he got lit up and was bad again. Finally, he shutout the Astros over eight innings, so owners are back picking him up. I see him as a streaming option based on matchups. Don’t pay up for this week’s higher prices. Just wait until he sucks again and gets dropped.

● John Means and Andrew Cashner: They both have a two-start week at home against the Red Sox and Angels. Why would owners do this to themselves?

● Jared Eickhoff: Grab him if available.

2019 Week 7 Hitter FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Logan Forsythe 2B | TEX 1% 6% 5% $26
Melky Cabrera RF | PIT 4% 7% 3% $25
Oscar Mercado CF | CLE 4% 7% 3% $25
James McCann C | CHW 5% 26% 21% $62
Eric Sogard SS | TOR 5% 15% 10% $34
David Bote 3B | CHC 5% 11% 6% $28
Brandon Drury 3B | TOR 5% 9% 4% $26
Matt Adams 1B | WAS 9% 17% 8% $32
Raimel Tapia CF | COL 10% 13% 3% $27
Cavan Biggio 2B | TOR 11% 14% 3% $27
Hunter Pence LF | TEX 11% 14% 3% $27
Nate Lowe 1B | TB 12% 41% 29% $101
Danny Santana LF | TEX 12% 40% 28% $96
Howie Kendrick 2B | WAS 12% 15% 3% $27
David Fletcher 2B | LAA 13% 16% 3% $28
Tommy La Stella 3B | LAA 16% 31% 15% $51
Eric Thames RF | MIL 16% 26% 10% $39
Leury Garcia LF | CHW 21% 26% 5% $34
Luis Urias 2B | SD 21% 25% 4% $32
Brian Goodwin CF | LAA 24% 31% 7% $38
Yordan Alvarez LF | HOU 25% 35% 10% $45
Josh Reddick RF | HOU 29% 40% 11% $51
Kole Calhoun RF | LAA 29% 37% 8% $44
Christian Vazquez C | BOS 30% 39% 9% $47
Michael Chavis 3B | BOS 34% 59% 25% $107
Alex Verdugo RF | LAD 46% 56% 10% $67
Mike Zunino C | TB 48% 57% 9% $67
Jorge Alfaro C | MIA 50% 57% 7% $64

Thoughts on some of the hitters:

● Nate Lowe: He is going to go big this week. Last week Carter Kieboom averaged $223. While some more FAAB dollars are spent, I could see it take $200 to roster him.

● James McCann: In the catcher wasteland, a catcher hitting .373/.417/.597 over 72 PA will get them noticed. Nothing has changed with McCann except a .468 BABIP with a .305 career value.

● Tommy La Stella: He’s leading off for the Angels with seven homers and a .247/.347/.506 triple slash. He’s no longer going to go for a minimum bid and owners need to pay up.

● Yordan Alvarez: Remember the Kyle Tucker hype before the season started Now, put all that hype instead on Yordan Alvarez (.402/.490/.931 in 102 AAA PA). If the Astros need a replacement, it seems like Alvarez will get the call. With his CBS ownership pushing 35%, anyone wanting him will need to do so now.

● Michael Chavis: Get in a deeper league if he’s still on the waiver wire of your league.

Besides this week’s projections, here are the values from last week and the same period last year for players added in 10 or more leagues.

2019 Week 6 FAAB Bids
Name Average Bid Count
Carter Kieboom $223 38
Emilio Pagan $100 38
Luke Jackson $57 37
Matt Adams $52 35
Hansel Robles $55 32
John Means $30 32
Luis Rengifo $47 31
Chris Bassitt $55 29
David Bote $33 29
James McCann $14 28
Hunter Pence $26 21
Raimel Tapia $53 19
Eric Sogard $23 18
Logan Forsythe $20 18
Jalen Beeks $13 16
Jon Duplantier $39 16
Dexter Fowler $30 15
Felix Pena $25 15
Ty France $23 15
Felix Hernandez $17 14
Tommy La Stella $26 14
Tyler Wade $14 13
Brandon Drury $19 12
Gio Gonzalez $28 11
Daniel Robertson $7 10
Freddy Peralta $33 10
Howie Kendrick $25 10
Manny Banuelos $17 10

 

2018 Week 7 FAAB Bids
Name Average Bid Count
Nick Kingham $170 34
Domingo German $167 34
Fernando Romero $135 34
Mike Soroka $174 33
Jose Bautista $108 31
Matt Adams $128 28
Andrew Suarez $46 28
Mitch Garver $23 24
Wilmer Difo $17 21
Alen Hanson $74 19
Alex Gordon $16 18
Travis Jankowski $17 16
Jeremy Hellickson $32 15
John Hicks $25 14
Mitch Moreland $33 14
Nick Hundley $10 14
Nick Ahmed $14 14
Tyler Anderson $35 13
Jeremy Jeffress $13 13
Alex Verdugo $68 13
Johan Camargo $16 12
Cam Bedrosian $35 12
Matt Koch $39 12
Martin Maldonado $9 11
Raffy Lopez $8 10
Brett Anderson $18 10
Adalberto Mondesi $18 10
Neil Walker $10 10





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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JJ17Chi
4 years ago

If Domingo Santana was dropped in your league, how much would you spend on him, all things being equal (such as team need, which is basically how you structure this weekly article)? Thanks!

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