Waiver Wire Targets: Week 8
There are just two weeks left in the season. I’m trying to focus on how to extract the most value from those 14 days. For this reason, the pitcher rankings may seem off, but if I don’t see myself starting them, I didn’t rank them very high.
As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Hitters
- Victor Reyes (45%): He’s about as well-rounded of an add a manager can get right now.
- Andrés Giménez (20%): The defensive wizard and his seven steals need to be picked up in all roto leagues. So far, his profile isn’t all speed with two homers and a .287 AVG.
- Adam Duvall (49%): While he’s not hitting at the top of the Braves lineup, he’s a must-add in all formats with his 13 homers.
- Raimel Tapia (21%): The Rockies leadoff hitter’s value is through the roof with all home games next week.
- Jeimer Candelario (43%): Finally, the dual position slugger (7 HR, .327 AVG) is getting some love.
- DJ Stewart (14%): He’s hitting great (.278 AVG, 6 HR) at the top of a decent scoring lineup.
- Rio Ruiz (16%): He started 13 straight games while hitting .302/.375/.488 over that time frame. The 26-year-old has eight homers while just batting .227.
- Bobby Dalbec (26%): It’s home run (60% HR/FB) or nothing (47% K%) for Dalbec.
- Brandon Belt (45%): He’s providing some power (7 HR) and average (.312) while hitting in the middle of the Giants lineup.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (21%): He’s in the majors because of his glove and has shown below-average power and speed in the minors.
- Ty France (21%): The 25-year-old is hard to rank. He’s playing and hitting in the middle of a lineup. I’m just not sure he’s talented.
- Willi Castro (7%): A BABIP (.472) fueled .354 AVG with some power (3 HR) has Castro on people’s radar. Since he’s batting 5th, he’s an interesting add.
- Alex Dickerson (38%): The eight homers are enticing but, but sort of an average profile beyond them.
- Daulton Varsho (14%): For the manager grinding for steals, Varsho is your catcher. While he hasn’t hit in the majors (strikeout rate way up), he did steal 21 bases in AA last season.
- Jesús Aguilar (42%): He’s started nine of the last 10 games while hitting OK (5 HR, .271 AVG).
- Garrett Cooper (18%): He’s been fine since returning from the IL. Besides some position flexibility (1B/OF), it’s a boring profile.
- Jurickson Profar (35%): He provides a little of everything (power, speed, positional flexibility), except batting average (.239 AVG).
- Chris Taylor (29%): A balanced replacement-level hitter (3 HR, 3 SB) who has started nine of the last ten games.
- Jackie Bradley Jr. (18%): The anti-gamble. He provides steady boring production. He’s a replacement level bat.
- Maikel Franco (44%): There seems to several of these third basemen who hitting well but not great. They seem to be decent streaming options.
- Edward Olivares (6%): His 3% BB% fits right into the Royals plate discipline profile, no discipline. He’ playing every day with a 28% HR/FB%.
- Miguel Andújar DH (33%): The Yankees are getting desperate to be starting Andujar again. While the playing time has been limited since his rookie season, he has sleazed his way into the Yankees lineup. He needed 87 injuries to occur before getting an opportunity.
- Corey Dickerson (33%): Really? I wonder if managers added the wrong Dickerson.
- Jared Walsh (5%); Started five of the last six games with five home runs so far. It’s nice to finally see the 26-year-old get a run at first base.
- Randy Arozarena (19%): Since joining the Rays, he’s started five of 10 games, mainly against lefties. In those few at-bats, he’s hitting .364/.462/.909 with four homers. A nice add in daily lineup leagues, unrosterable in weekly leagues.
- Manuel Margot (18%): The 11 stolen bases and .274 AVG seem enticing, but with Kevin Kiermaier back, Margot is only starting against southpaws.
- Rowdy Tellez (23%): Out for the 2020 season.
Starters
- Deivi García (56%): If a manager is adding any pitcher for the upcoming week, it’s Garcia with two starts versus Toronto and at Boston. The rookie has pretty much shoved since being promoted.
- Dane Dunning (53%): While his two matchups (vs MIN, at CIN) aren’t ideal this next week, there aren’t many other starters on the wire with his talent (9.5 K/9, 1.00 WHIP, 2.70 ERA).
- Josh Fleming (28%): Besides being home run prone (2.3 HR/9), all his stats are fine for a fourth or fifth starter.
- Dean Kremer (16%) and Keegan Akin (10%): The prospects debuted with mixed results. I’m interested in them where he can be stashed for potential two-starts in the last week. I’d roster them now to see how their starts go this week and then possibly start him against the Red Sox and Blue Jays in the last week.
- Luis Garcia (4%): The 0.96 is admirable but it’s not going to stay that way if he keeps walking a batter every other inning (4.8 BB/9). He looks to have three starts to end the season (Rangers x2, Mariners).
- Cole Hamels (27%): Hamels has two-starts in the last week (Marlins Red Sox). He might be worth stash this week, observe how he pitches against Baltimore, and make the decision to cut or keep next week.
- Johan Oviedo (11%): If a team needs a Hail Mary to get back in it next week, he’s it. His two starts are against the Brewers and Pirates.
- JT Brubaker (5%): If he’s still in the rotation, 26-year-old righty will likely get two starts in the last week. I’m not sure how much I trust a Pirates starter to deliver. He does throw a 94-mph fastball and two breaking balls (slider and curve) with a swinging-strike rate of over 13%.
- Tejay Antone (8%): I like him going into next season, but a single start against the White Sox this week and just one start the next week doesn’t work for me.
- Trevor Rogers (22%): While he imploded this past Friday (8 ER in 3 IP), his 13 K/9 and 3.75 SIERA are completely workable. He lines up for two starts in two weeks at the Braves and the Yankees.
- Yusei Kikuchi (30%): His 53% LOB% is the league’s lowest (min 30 IP). It’s the reason all his ERA estimators are under 4.00 but he has a 5.35 ERA. He’s been horrible from the stretch (10% K%) compared to the windup (24% K%).
- Kris Bubic (12%): The rookie has been OK but he’s got one start against Milwaukee this week and one against St Louis the next. I’ll bet on other options.
- Justin Dunn (25%): He’s gone full flyball mode (33% GB%) over his last three starts. He limited the hits (.091 BABIP, 1.0 HR/9) to post a 1.00 ERA. I just don’t think he’s work adding (vs Padres) this next week.
- Tarik Skubal (29%): He’s looked OK at times, but the results across the board have stunk (1.50 WHIP, 2.1 HR/9, 7.27 ERA).
- David Peterson (42%): Currently, he lines up for just one start for the upcoming weeks with next week’s start versus Atlanta.
- José Ureña (12%): Not just no. Hell no.
Relievers (Saves based value)
- Jeremy Jeffress (55%): An OK reliever with the closer’s role.
- Greg Holland (31%): An OK reliever with the closer’s role.
- Daniel Bard (39%): An OK reliever with the closer’s role.
- Tony Watson (25%): An OK reliever with a partial closer’s role.
- Richard Rodriguez (15%): An OK reliever with the closer’s role.
- Devin Williams (36%): A cyborg who is next in line for the closer’s role.
- Rafael Dolis (13%): An OK reliever with a temporary hold on partial closer’s role.
- Yohan Ramirez (7%): There has been speculation he will get with the closer’s role.
CBS Ownership Changes
| Name | Prev Own% | Current Own% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall LF | 12% | 49% | 37% |
| Daniel Bard RP | 18% | 39% | 21% |
| Jeimer Candelario 3B | 22% | 43% | 21% |
| Victor Reyes CF | 26% | 45% | 19% |
| Jeremy Jeffre SS RP | 38% | 55% | 17% |
| Deivi Garcia SP | 39% | 56% | 17% |
| Dean Kremer SP | 1% | 16% | 15% |
| Randy Arozarena RF | 4% | 19% | 15% |
| Trevor Rogers SP | 7% | 22% | 15% |
| DJ Stewart RF | 1% | 14% | 13% |
| Dane Dunning SP | 40% | 53% | 13% |
| Alex Dickerson LF | 26% | 38% | 12% |
| Bobby Dalbec 3B | 15% | 26% | 11% |
| Brandon Belt 1B | 34% | 45% | 11% |
| Rafael Dolis RP | 3% | 13% | 10% |
| Devin Williams RP | 26% | 36% | 10% |
| Ty France 3B | 12% | 21% | 9% |
| Yusei Kikuchi SP | 21% | 30% | 9% |
| Andres Gimenez SS | 12% | 20% | 8% |
| Justin Dunn SP | 17% | 25% | 8% |
| Keegan Akin SP | 3% | 10% | 7% |
| Rowdy Tellez 1B | 16% | 23% | 7% |
| Tony Watson RP | 18% | 25% | 7% |
| Yohan Ramirez SP | 1% | 7% | 6% |
| Jurickson Profar 2B | 29% | 35% | 6% |
| Jesus Aguilar 1B | 36% | 42% | 6% |
| Jackie Bradley CF | 13% | 18% | 5% |
| Tarik Skubal SP | 24% | 29% | 5% |
| Greg Holland RP | 26% | 31% | 5% |
| Corey Dickerson LF | 28% | 33% | 5% |
| Miguel AndujarDH | 28% | 33% | 5% |
| Corey Dickerson LF | 28% | 33% | 5% |
| Willi Castro SS | 3% | 7% | 4% |
| Tejay Antone SP | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| Jose Urena SP | 8% | 12% | 4% |
| Richard Rodriguez RP | 11% | 15% | 4% |
| Garrett Cooper 1B | 14% | 18% | 4% |
| Manuel Margot CF | 14% | 18% | 4% |
| Raimel Tapia LF | 17% | 21% | 4% |
| Maikel Franco 3B | 40% | 44% | 4% |
| Luis Garcia RP | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Edward Olivares RF | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Johan Oviedo SP | 8% | 11% | 3% |
| Kris Bubic SP | 9% | 12% | 3% |
| Daulton VarshoC | 11% | 14% | 3% |
| Rio Ruiz 3B | 13% | 16% | 3% |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B | 18% | 21% | 3% |
| Cole Hamel S SP | 24% | 27% | 3% |
| Chris Taylor LF | 26% | 29% | 3% |
| David Peterson SP | 39% | 42% | 3% |
| J.T. Brubaker SP | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Josh Fleming SP | 26% | 28% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Just a small quibble, Hayes has above average speed. 60-grade and ~15 SB per 600/PA.
Speed has never translated to SB. Nobody knows how that actually plays out – you have to see it happen.
Maybe I’m alone in this, but I would take the cyborg over all the OK closers, even in a saves league.
Make that 14 for Duvall, another today (off Scherzer).
Should I drop Brandon Belt for Aguilar? Aguilar would be playing a lot more games.
If you need the counting stats I think that’s a good move. Aguilar has actually shown up recently after doing virtually nothing this season. Plus, he’s on a team on a wild card choice, so hopefully he’s motivated for all of those games.
France is talented, 60 level bat IMO and maybe 50-55 power. Pick him up….that’s my recommendation anyway. Also can play at 2b.
The glove is questionable, but I don’t know what talent he’s not seeing at the plate
Yea he literally had one of goat minor league lines ever, never had a double digit wrc ever, and career 135 wRC+ in minors. This year his wrc is 162 in the MLB. He is a masher, and probably going to be a massive draft day value next year.
.400+ BABIP. Nothing to suggest 60 hit.
Jose Urquidy is facing the Rangers and D-Backs this week and the first two starts were possibly him shaking off rust
Imagine writing “I’m just not sure he’s talented” about a 25-year old major league batter with a .961 OPS.
Good god..
Technically, he’s 26, although normally this would be considered his age 25 season. And it has been a small sample size this year….but it’s not like he didn’t completely demolish AAA last year (I don’t care how jacked up the ball was and how hitter-friendly the park is – his line of 399/477/770 was insane!) and had a generally good record of hitting in 2018/19 other than a mediocre MLB debut, which is to be expected for most hitters. So yeah, I don’t know what more he could do to prove he’s a talented hitter…
You should care about that environment. Lots of environments are so crazy that they don’t really tell you anything. I am putting 2019 AAA SD in that category. Figure in that it was half a season and a BABIP of .410 and there is a lot to write off. Do I consider this a death sentence? Not by any stretch but you should have more skepticism. I have never actually seen him and as such I don’t know but you are talking about some less than ideal samples here. I am looking forward to putting some eyes on him. While I am far less optimistic than you folks, it is always good to get some inspiration for a player to look at.
I agree that environment is that crazy, but I disagree entirely with your conclusion. Look at what he did at literally every other stop. Career 135 wRC+ in the minors. Never posted a below average line, ever. Posted literally the best line ever that makes all the other guys who played at that level/ballpark lines look soft by comparison.
It has nothing to do with stats. He is literally one of the very best baseball players in the world simply because of the fact that he is a starter on a competitive major league baseball team and this writer doesn’t know if he’s talented…
Give me a break.
“I’m not sure h’es an above average bat,” or “I’m not sure his ceiling is this high,” or something like that? Fine.
“I’m just not sure he’s talented” is garbage analysis and insulting.
99 PA and a BABIP over .400. Perfectly reasonable starting point.