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No major rookie call ups, but some interesting names for the last month of the season.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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Angels

• Since Andrelton Simmons has returned from the IL, Matt Thaiss has moved to the bench.
• Brian Goodwin’s fantasy value is dead since he’s barely starting.

Astros

• The lineup remains steady with the only exception being Abraham Toro (.211/.286/.211) playing third and Alex Bregman sliding over to short with Carlos Correa out.

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Today, I am going through some fantasy-relevant information which could change several player projections.

• Dan Hayes of The Athletic ($$) stated the following on Martín Pérez.

The Twins believe the keys to Pérez’s great early performance this season were working with increased velocity and filling up the strike zone. For the past few weeks, Twins pitching coaches have encouraged Pérez not to worry about conserving energy in order to pitch deep into games.

Air it out. Let them worry about the late innings. And on the days when the velo isn’t there, locate and attack.

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The heck with the intro, I’ll go straight to the players being dropped in six to nine NFBC Main Event (15-team, 23-man rosters) leagues.

Injured

• Jesse Winker (7): Back injury has him on the IL.
• Domingo Santana (7): On IL with an inflamed elbow.
• Scott Oberg (6): Out for the season.
• Mitch Haniger (6): Another setback means he’ll likely not play in 2019.
• Nomar Mazara (6): He can’t help a fantasy teams from the IL

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If there is a weekend to take off, it’s this one. Kyle Seager and Adam Plutko are the hot commodities. Not good.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

• Luis Arraez, Marwin Gonzalez, Kevin Pillar, Nick Ahmed, and Kyle Seager: All five have been available most of the season and are in or ending a hot streak. Also, I wonder if these hitters are trending up based on last week’s ownership momentum (Seager, Ahmed, and Pillar) even if the underlying end-of-season projections don’t support it. Also, owners may be looking for a change and with so few sexy options, these regulars are that change.
• Tommy Edman, Jake Fraley, Raimel Tapia, and Tim Lopes: For any team needing stolen base help, these four are a must-add. Besides the steals, they are not complete zeros in power. Lopes is the top target if a team only needs steals.
• Tom Murphy: Catchers have been surprisingly decent this season with owners not having to settle for the .230 AVG and 14 HR guys.
• Austin Nola: He’s been acceptable but his real value comes from leagues where he’s catcher eligible.
• Nick Solak: He’s a nice power addition if he can find full-time at-bats.

• Adrian Houser, Mike Montgomery, and Joe Ross: Recently, I found all three making positive changes to their arsenals and they deserve the ownership boost.
• Adam Plutko: I don’t hate his two-start week at Detroit and at Tampa.
• Justus Sheffield: He’s had walk problems forever, so it’s not surprising to see he walked more batters than struck out in his 2019 MLB debut. Pay for the talent, not the name.
• Logan Webb: I’m putting him in the must-own bin. Strikeouts, walks, groundballs. Oh, my.
• Brock Burke: He starts today for the White Sox and with no runs allowed in a first start, his stock could increase with a good performance. It’s tough to get a read on his talent because he’s jumped so many levels in the past two seasons. But that rise might be the sign needed to buy-in with the Rangers feeling he has conquered each level.

Reliever Rankings (Saves focused)

1. Mark Melancon
2. Joe Jimenez
3. Matt Magill
4. Sergio Romo
5. Carlos Estevez
6. Matt Albers
7. Daniel Hudson
8. Hunter Strickland
9. Nick Anderson
10. Rowan Wick

Last week, I tried to find any positive mid-season changes a pitcher has implemented to improve their fantasy stock for the final few weeks. I started with pitchers owned in 16% to 30% of Fantrax leagues and will now be digging even deeper after Mike Montgomery popped up on my radar as someone making positive skill changes.

A pitcher I targetted this FAAB period was the Royals Mike Montgomery. With the Royals, he's improved his ERA, K's, BB's, and GB% by changing his pitch mix

He's increased his cutter (12% SwStr%) usage from 4% to 20% and dropped his sinker (6% SwStr%) usage from 35% to 22%

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 19, 2019

Jordan Zimmermann (16%): Whoa, he’s changed his arsenal around with a mid-season introduction of a sinker (11% SwStr%, 69% GB%). It’s tough to buy too much of the change since he has a 6.29 ERA in the season’s first half and 7.31 ERA in the second half. It wasn’t until the last four starts when he started using his sinker even more (14% usage) and therefore has a 4.35 ERA, 7.4 K/9, and 0.9 BB/9.

Also, August was the first month he threw his slider (40%) more than his four-seamer (36%). He pulling out all the stops to remain relevant. Even with the changes, he’s likely a 4.25 ERA pitcher at best but in some leagues, that production level is useful.
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I find this week’s drops sort of useless. The hitters being dropped are below-average performers in part-time roles.  The pitchers are home run prone. Maybe owners should check over the list to make sure none of these has-beens are filling up a roster spot. So, here are the players being dropped in six to nine leagues.

Hurt

• Roman Quinn (9): Providing some power and speed in sporadic playing time before going on on the IL.
• Pablo López (8): He has been slow at coming back from the IL and owners can’t wait.
• José Martínez (7): Shoulder issues keeping him on the IL.
• Michael Chavis (7): Slowly regaining his strength.
• Carlos Carrasco (6): If he even returns, he supposed to throw out of the bullpen. Fine drop.

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With no big wallet busters this week, some owners may slack on their adds but several players could provide nice value. Nothing sexy, just useful.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

Read the rest of this entry »