To begin my 2020 preseason, the elephant needs to be addressed, “What to do about projecting with MLB’s juiced baseball (i.e. Happy Fun Ball).
Is Freddy Galvis going to continue to jack 20+ home runs or will he maxing out at dozen or so? Every projection can’t be a Choose Your Own Adventure story. If the ball is still juiced, he’ll do X, if not juiced, he’ll do Y. In my analysis, I’ll pick a lane.
Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).
Note: The starters are listed in order of value
Hell Yea
None
Multiple Category Contribution
Joe Musgrove (46%) at CHC: Musgrove was the closest to making the Hell Yea group but I’m not sold on the Win and afraid the Cubs will hit him around. He’s the best option, but just not a slam dunk.
Aaron Civale (46%) at CWS: He’s good but not 1.82 ERA good. Somehow he’s maintained a 0.3 HR/9 with a mediocre 40% GB%. With regression coming now or next season in the ERA department, he doesn’t walk anyone (2.2 BB/9) and should get a Win against the White Sox.
Chase Anderson (16%) at CIN: Chase the Win and get a few strikeouts (8.2 K/9) along the way without completely destroying a team’s ERA (4.30) and WHIP (1.26).
Devin Smeltzer (3%) at DET: He’s in the Civale camp with a decent chance for a Win and his 2.5 BB/9 helps keep his WHIP (1.18) low.
Read the rest of this entry »
Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).
Note: The starters are listed in order of value
Hell Yea
Homer Bailey (30%) at LAA: He meets all the requirements for a good streamer, especially since joining the A’s, with an 8.6 K/9, just a 2.0 BB/9, six Wins, and a 4.21 ERA.
Partial Category Contribution
Rich Hill (39%)/Ross Stripling (39%) at SD: If Stripling starts, I love him in the follower role here. The only red flag may be a limited number of innings.
Dylan Bundy (19%) at TOR: Strikeouts (9.1 K/9) and a possible Win against the Jays. The strikeouts may not be as high since he’s reinventing himself as the season goes on. He’s starting to mix in a sinker and throw his four-seamer less. His strikeouts have gone from 9.5 K/9 in the first half to 8.5 K/9. Over the same time, his HR/9 has dropped from 2.0 to 1.1. The problem is the Orioles defense which has let too many groundballs through and his BABIP has increased from .276 to .339.
Anthony Kay (3%) vs BAL: I guess I’m the most interested in the Baltimore-Toronto game. Kay’s been striking out batters this season (8.4 K/9). He’s keeping the ball on the ground so far in the majors (52%) and has limited the homers. While his ERA is near 6.00, his ERA estimators are around 4.00. He’s a fine option.
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| 7:30 |
: First, a little house keeping.
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| 7:31 |
: The chats will move to a weeknight in the offseason. I haven’t decided which night, possibly Monday night. It will also bounce around during the postseason since I won’t do a chat with a playoff game going on.
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| 7:32 |
: Second, I’ve spent all weekend in the rain watching my son play soccer. I’m not even close catching up on the news
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| 7:32 |
: Tout Wars FAAB results:
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| 7:32 |
: Auction
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| 7:33 |
: GHampson: 22
RHill: 16 ZEflin: 15 JHapp: 13 MGonzalez: 12 HCastro: 11 JRamirez: 6 JUrquidy: 3 GRichards: 1 NWalker: 1 AHaseley: 1 JSheffield: 0 DPomeranz: 0 JDiaz: 0 JHoffman: 0 OArcia: 0 MWacha: 0 AAlmonte: 0 YGomes: 0 ADiaz: 0 |
Angels
Astros
It’s time to gleen into tonight’s games to see what information can be pulled out. All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through games trying to find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.
Notes from the lines:
Game 1 (Tuesday): Phillies at Braves
Favorite: Braves
Book’s Breakeven % (Braves): 64.5%
FanGraphs Win%: 52.1%
FanGraphs doesn’t buy into Dallas Keuchel’s 3.35 ERA (3.91 ERA projection) but Vince Velasquez is pegged at a 4.86 ERA. The Braves aren’t even getting all the home-field advantage on a break-even game. I’d have to side with the Books on this one.
Read the rest of this entry »
Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).
Note: The starters are listed in order of value
Aaron Civale (43%) vs DET: I don’t believe in the 1.93 ERA with a 4.56 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA but the home matchup (vs Zimmermann) is great.
Tony Gonsolin (0%) vs TB: Golsolin is a similar talent to Civale but Gonsolin’s matchup versus the Rays is tougher.
Dinelson Lamet (20%) at MIL: He’s a must-start even though he’s on the road in Milwaukee.
Zach Eflin (28%) at ATL: This might be the most boring pickup but he has been consistently OK over the course of this season. I just wish he was facing someone besides Atlanta.
Read the rest of this entry »
It’s time to go over a few more games from this past weekend and today. All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through games trying to find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.
Notes from the lines:
| 7:32 |
: Hello everyone. Give me a sec while I collect tonight’s FAAB bids from Tout Wars
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| 7:34 |
: Auction:
NHoerner: 191 NMarkakis: 153 KLewis: 75 DLamet: 51 LUrias: 39 SMurphy: 37 CStewart: 37 BreAnderson: 36 NMartini: 27 TFrazier: 26 JChacin: 26 AVoth: 10 LSeverino: 6 ARomine: 3 JrgLopez: 3 TDuffey: 2 SVogt: 2 GGarcia: 1 MDubon: 0 JCastro: 0 MRojas: 0 SLong: 0 DSmeltzer: 0 WCastillo: 0 |
| 7:34 |
: Draft
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| 7:35 |
: JDiaz: 77
KLewis: 66 NHoerner: 66 JCueto: 13 CMaybin: 8 ROHearn: 2 BNimmo: 2 AVoth: 1 |
| 7:35 |
: Have Rizzo in 10 team redraft. Who are some good pickups?
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| 7:35 |
: Tough to know without options.
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Compared to last week when nothing happened, a few interesting names popped up this week for those still with FAAB left to spend.
The projection guidelines:
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Spangenberg 2B | MIL | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| Ryan McBroom 1B | KC | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| Cornelius Randolph LF | PHI | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| Tyler Wade 2B | NYY | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| Jose Trevino C | TEX | 1% | 2% | 1% | $1 |
| Reese McGuire C | TOR | 1% | 2% | 1% | $1 |
| Dylan Moore SS | SEA | 2% | 3% | 1% | $1 |
| Cedric Mullins CF | BAL | 2% | 3% | 1% | $1 |
| Austin Romine C | NYY | 4% | 6% | 2% | $1 |
| Martin Maldonado C | HOU | 4% | 5% | 1% | $1 |
| Kyle Lewis CF | SEA | 5% | 14% | 9% | $4 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS | SF | 6% | 8% | 2% | $1 |
| Nico Hoerner SS | CHC | 7% | 15% | 8% | $3 |
| Victor Reyes LF | DET | 8% | 11% | 3% | $1 |
| Aledmys Diaz SS | HOU | 8% | 9% | 1% | $1 |
| Sean Murphy C | OAK | 11% | 17% | 6% | $2 |
| Joey Wendle 2B | TB | 13% | 15% | 2% | $1 |
| Austin Nola SS | SEA | 17% | 21% | 4% | $2 |
| Christin Stewart LF | DET | 17% | 18% | 1% | $1 |
| Eric Thames RF | MIL | 18% | 21% | 3% | $2 |
| Nick Solak 2B | TEX | 19% | 26% | 7% | $7 |
| Trent Grisham RF | MIL | 19% | 23% | 4% | $3 |
| Garrett Cooper LF | MIA | 25% | 27% | 2% | $5 |
| Adam Frazier 2B | PIT | 26% | 33% | 7% | $12 |
| Tommy Edman SS | STL | 34% | 46% | 12% | $30 |
| Starlin Castro 2B | MIA | 38% | 48% | 10% | $29 |
| Robinson Cano 2B | NYM | 43% | 49% | 6% | $26 |
| Jorge Alfaro C | MIA | 43% | 44% | 1% | $18 |
| Wil Myers LF | SD | 48% | 66% | 18% | $68 |
| Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF | 49% | 52% | 3% | $28 |
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Bolanos SP | SD | 0% | 2% | 2% | $1 |
| Seung-Hwan Oh RP | COL | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1 |
| James Karinchak RP | CLE | 1% | 3% | 2% | $1 |
| Jorge Lopez RP | KC | 2% | 5% | 3% | $1 |
| Jairo Diaz RP | COL | 3% | 7% | 4% | $1 |
| Nick Wittgren RP | CLE | 3% | 4% | 1% | $1 |
| Chad Green RP | NYY | 4% | 5% | 1% | $1 |
| Anthony Kay SP | TOR | 7% | 9% | 2% | $1 |
| Yusmeiro Petit RP | OAK | 7% | 8% | 1% | $1 |
| Will Harris RP | HOU | 8% | 9% | 1% | $1 |
| Trevor May RP | MIN | 9% | 10% | 1% | $1 |
| Arodys Vizcaino RP | SEA | 10% | 11% | 1% | $1 |
| Trent Thornton RP | TOR | 11% | 13% | 2% | $1 |
| Drew Smyly SP | PHI | 14% | 16% | 2% | $1 |
| Johnny Cueto SP | SF | 21% | 46% | 25% | $21 |
| Justus Sheffield RP | SEA | 27% | 35% | 8% | $1 |
| Dylan Bundy SP | BAL | 28% | 30% | 2% | $1 |
| Michael Wacha SP | STL | 33% | 37% | 4% | $1 |
| Gio Gonzalez SP | MIL | 34% | 38% | 4% | $1 |
| Ross Stripling SP | LAD | 38% | 40% | 2% | $1 |
| Seth Lugo RP | NYM | 42% | 45% | 3% | $1 |
| Zach Eflin SP | PHI | 43% | 45% | 2% | $1 |
| Alex Young SP | ARI | 45% | 56% | 11% | $6 |
| Nathan Eovaldi SP | BOS | 45% | 52% | 7% | $2 |
| Sandy Alcantara SP | MIA | 46% | 49% | 3% | $0 |
| Merrill Kelly SP | ARI | 47% | 54% | 7% | $3 |
| Chase Anderson SP | MIL | 47% | 50% | 3% | $0 |
| Reynaldo Lopez SP | CHW | 48% | 56% | 8% | $4 |
| Martin Perez SP | MIN | 50% | 55% | 5% | $2 |
Closer Rankings (Saves focused)
| Add | Avg Bid | Leagues (38) |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Lux | $11 | 35 |
| Kyle Gibson | $9 | 9 |
| Zach Eflin | $8 | 5 |
| Johnny Cueto | $8 | 5 |
| Robinson Cano | $7 | 9 |
| Rich Hill | $6 | 23 |
| Brandon Nimmo | $6 | 10 |
| Dylan Moore | $6 | 23 |
| Tyler Glasnow | $6 | 14 |
| Justus Sheffield | $5 | 17 |
| Patrick Sandoval | $5 | 6 |
| Raimel Tapia | $5 | 6 |
| Seth Brown | $5 | 6 |
| Adam Haseley | $4 | 5 |
| Ross Stripling | $4 | 8 |
| Brendan McKay | $4 | 14 |
| Jairo Diaz | $4 | 8 |
| Joey Wendle | $3 | 11 |
| Dawel Lugo | $3 | 9 |
| Josh James | $3 | 6 |
| Harold Castro | $3 | 5 |
| Drew Smyly | $3 | 5 |
| Josh Rojas | $2 | 17 |
| Mauricio Dubon | $2 | 10 |
| Robert Dugger | $2 | 13 |
| Austin Pruitt | $2 | 6 |
| Matt Beaty | $2 | 8 |
| Tyler Beede | $2 | 5 |
| Garrett Hampson | $2 | 5 |
| Tyler Mahle | $2 | 13 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | $2 | 10 |
| Phillip Ervin | $2 | 5 |
| Ben Zobrist | $2 | 10 |
| Anthony Kay | $1 | 7 |
| Austin Voth | $1 | 5 |
| Julio Urias | $1 | 6 |
| Austin Hedges | $1 | 6 |
| Add | Avg Bid | Leagues (34) |
|---|---|---|
| Yairo Munoz | $16 | 6 |
| Ross Stripling | $16 | 5 |
| Sandy Alcantara | $14 | 12 |
| Daniel Mengden | $14 | 7 |
| Brandon Lowe | $13 | 6 |
| Terrance Gore | $11 | 9 |
| Jose Fernandez | $10 | 11 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano | $10 | 21 |
| Ryan Borucki | $10 | 12 |
| Delino DeShields | $9 | 5 |
| Erick Fedde | $7 | 24 |
| Ty Buttrey | $7 | 20 |
| Jose Alvarado | $6 | 9 |
| Chris Stratton | $6 | 6 |
| Ji-Man Choi | $5 | 14 |
| Willians Astudillo | $5 | 19 |
| Sean Reid-Foley | $5 | 9 |
| Joe Ross | $5 | 10 |
| Steve Cishek | $4 | 10 |
| Cody Reed | $4 | 7 |
| Nate Jones | $4 | 6 |
| Jorge Bonifacio | $4 | 6 |
| Tyler Skaggs | $3 | 5 |
| Brett Anderson | $3 | 6 |
| Jason Vargas | $3 | 7 |
| Daniel Norris | $3 | 8 |
| Christin Stewart | $3 | 10 |
| Jake Bauers | $3 | 7 |
| Wilmer Difo | $3 | 6 |
| Jake Cave | $2 | 7 |
| Aaron Altherr | $2 | 5 |
| Joe Mauer | $1 | 5 |
| Robbie Erlin | $1 | 7 |
| Victor Caratini | $1 | 9 |
