Matt Carpenter has always been a strange roto player. Historically, he’s one of those guys who is better in real life than fantasy. He often contributed over 700 plate appearances with a chance to hit for a .300 average. He’s an OBP league stud. We knew he’d score plenty of runs, but his RBI opportunities would be truncated by batting leadoff. Alas, the strong two category production would come with fewer than 10 home runs and about five stolen bases.

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It’s never too early to prepare for next season, just as you can never have too many articles about the mechanics of projection systems. Well, ok, the second part of that statement is a lie, but it has been awhile since we’ve talked about how we use projection systems.

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Rougned Odor provided his owners with $5 of value, but that hides the Jekyll and Hyde nature of his season. If you drafted Odor, chances are you dropped or traded him along the way. And I bet you’re kicking yourself – especially in keeper leagues.

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So who had DJ LeMahieu as the fourth most valuable second baseman? According to our mathery, LeMahieu was worth a hair under $19 – more than Brian Dozier, Jason Kipnis, and Robinson Cano. Only Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve, and Ian Kinsler outperformed him.

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Over the last couple weeks, I’ve examined the current DFS debacle and some reader perspectives. And I keep getting hammered with a fundamental misunderstanding of the “sport.” Sure, any given day of DFS is wildly unpredictable. The same is true of baseball. Does that mean there’s an incongruity between DFS and the need for large sample sizes we espouse here on FanGraphs? No.

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Real baseball is over and ottoneu roster review season is in full swing. Brandon Warne and Chad Young have already revealed where their rosters stand in FanGraphs Staff  Two, and I touched upon the challenges facing me while gloating about my championship win. It’s going to be a difficult offseason.

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First base prospects are probably the easiest to analyze for fantasy and dynasty purposes. At other positions, particularly up the middle, we’re left to guess future production. Some guys grow, some just adjust well to major league pitcher (Joe Panik), and others linger for years before flashing upside (Zack Cozart). Unlike those skilled positions, a player does not become a first base prospect if he’s not already demonstrating serious talent at the plate.

With that in mind, let’s talk about my four favorite first base prospects. Three of these guys are adjacent to the majors which means they’re owned in any self-respecting dynasty league. This article isn’t about guys you can find for free, it’s meant to highlight the biggest up-and-coming names at the position.

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Entering the season, Mike Trout was the consensus first overall pick. Paul Goldschmidt was part of an elite crew under consideration for the second selection. There was some wariness over the hand injury that ended his 2014 season, but it turns out there was no cause for concern. He posted a monstrous 103/33/110/21/.321 roto-season. According to our (not-so) esoteric maths, he was the most valuable first baseman at a hair under $37.

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Once upon a time (aka 2009), Kendrys Morales was a breakout first base prospect at the age of 26. He popped 34 home runs, drove in 108 runs, and hit for a .306 average in 611 plate appearances. He was on pace to do much the same in 2010 until a home run celebration prematurely ended his season. And the next one.

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Last week, I wrote about the various debacles facing the DFS industry. Like any short-sighted capitalists, FanDuel and DraftKings have been grabbing as much revenue as possible. Unfortunately, it looks increasingly apparent that both industry giants forgot about the nature of their service. In America, DFS is only quasi-legal. Draw too much of the wrong attention and they could be punted from one of their largest markets.

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