DFS Debacle Reader Perspectives

Last week, I wrote about the various debacles facing the DFS industry. Like any short-sighted capitalists, FanDuel and DraftKings have been grabbing as much revenue as possible. Unfortunately, it looks increasingly apparent that both industry giants forgot about the nature of their service. In America, DFS is only quasi-legal. Draw too much of the wrong attention and they could be punted from one of their largest markets.

Last week’s article generated 108 comments as of this writing. About 25 of those were me responding to others. Another 25 or so can be classified as short jokes. That still leaves quite a few meaningful notes.

As it turns out, some people really don’t like DFS. Their glee over the whole situation is obvious. To them, DFS is a perversion of the classic fantasy game. As much as I don’t want to alienate some of my readers, this line of thinking is strikingly trollish. And I can’t help rising to the bait. Some people prefer traditional fantasy baseball. Some prefer daily fantasy. Nobody has a right to tell you that your fantasy baseball preferences are wrong.

As one anonymous reader put it:

I don’t understand how the interest in DFS has impacted season-long fantasy players aside from the “stupid money” moving on to another format.

If you’re a season-long fantasy ‘purist’ like myself, I don’t see why we can’t just ignore DFS and do our own thing as we always have.

Some readers are worried that regulation of the DFS industry could also affect traditional fantasy leagues – specifically money leagues . Those games are exempt from internet gambling laws. It’s the very exemption DFS sites are using to justify their contests. If the loophole is closed for DFS, then it could be closed for traditional fantasy too. After all, lawmakers aren’t always the most rational or discerning folk.

The good news is that traditional fantasy money leagues should remain safe for practical reasons. As one reader points out, a typical fantasy league is analogous to a weekly poker game with your friends. Technically, it’s illegal. I think. Honestly, I don’t even know for sure.

The law never busts down your door for poker (noise is another story). The same will hold true of most fantasy leagues. A few services could be affected like LeagueSafe. Public, big-money contests like NFBC could also be shutdown.

One of the problems DFS faces is the influx of quants using algorithms and scripts to optimize lineups and exploit the worst users. Interestingly, commenter Joe had this to say:

I’m a quant. I write machine learning algos of cognition for a living. The opportunity cost of my time is pretty high- why in God’s name would I waste time trying to algo DFS? I know people do it, it just seems like they’re probably muscling it. I mean, I love sports, and I do a couple cool things with factor loading models for my yearly teams, but the time I would have to spend to build something I would be proud of in analyzing DFS can be spent in more lucrative ways.

So that’s good news for amateur users. I suspect the low hanging fruit have been plucked from the DFS tree. New entrants should face steep competition on the high volume circuit. It will be harder for them to become established and justify continued investment of their time and energy.

Of the existing users, some will leverage their winnings to leap into other jobs, start a business, or diversify their portfolios. They’re the smart ones. Others will continue beating the DFS horse until it’s well and thoroughly dead. There will always be professionals to “ruin” the game for amateurs, but there’s a definite equilibrium. If too many pros enter, then it’s no longer worth their time.

Mike R. had this to say:

Anyone else find it hypocritical that baseball, who has ads for fanduel and draftkings during their games, still bans Pete Rose for gambling? Call it a game of skill all you want, DFS is gambling on sports outcomes. When 27 baseball teams have agreements with DFS sites, its safe to say they sponsor gambling. The hard rule in baseball since Commissioner Landis served has been gambling of any sort in the game will get you a lifetime ban. Apparently as long as the teams are backing the gambling sites, it’s all ok. Very shady

Honestly, I have to agree. It’s hypocritical. Granted, DFS does seem to be a more harmless form of gambling. Some commenters tried to create scenarios where a player or manager would throw a game or decision for some reason related to DFS. They’re all hopelessly tortured. There are simply too many variables in DFS to control the equation.

Say Joe Maddon pulls Jake Arrieta early because he’s 20 percent owned. Maddon (or his co-conspirators) would still have to pick the right alternatives to Arrieta and spike a lineup. Insider help can improve odds, but not enough to make it financial viable. Bribes are too costly in an era where an entry level manager makes nearly $1 million.

On the surface, I don’t have a problem with baseball teams working together with the DFS sites. However, this could be a slippery slope. When people talk about the integrity of the sport, it’s usually about some overblown, non-issue. Like changing the rules about hitting catchers. In the case of gambling, there’s just soooo much money at stake.

The sport has already become obnoxiously transactional for fans. If you go to a game, you pay for a ticket, a convenience fee, a processing fee, parking, and ridiculous concessions. You can buy a craft beer – it will cost more than a six-pack of that same beer. The DFS ad barrage already cheapens the broadcasts I watch (for what it’s worth, so do the Viagra and beer ads). Teams should be careful moving forward.

Finally, one person asked about The Book. I occasionally reference it in my articles. Think of it as a course on Sabermetrics 101. If you’re interested, use this link so the writers get a small piece of your used copy purchase.