A Distinct Odor

Rougned Odor provided his owners with $5 of value, but that hides the Jekyll and Hyde nature of his season. If you drafted Odor, chances are you dropped or traded him along the way. And I bet you’re kicking yourself – especially in keeper leagues.

Through May 8, Odor hit a miserable .144/.252/.233 with one home run, eight runs, nine RBI, and one stolen base. The Rangers said “enough” and sent him to Triple-A where he proceeded to rake. He returned to the majors on June 15 and proceeded to hit a lovely .292/.334/.527 with 15 home runs, 46 runs, 52 RBI, and five stolen bases over 367 plate appearances. Let’s visualize.

Clearly, Odor rediscovered how to hit when he was demoted to Triple-A. End of article, right? It’s certainly encouraging to see him bounce back so quickly. Some players can get discouraged when early career struggles lead to a demotion. Not so with Odor.

There’s also cause for concern. He was really, truly terrible for over a month. That happens to just about everybody eventually so maybe we shouldn’t worry. It also gives us a peek at his floor. If he’s off, he might become completely useless. For some players, such a drastic decline can only result through serious injury or a mechanical funk. Other players have to be at full strength to compete in the majors (Jacoby Ellsbury comes to mind). I’m not saying Odor is one of those latter players, but it’s something to watch.

Let’s not gloss over his exploits in the minors. Over 124 plate appearances, he hit .352/.426/.639. Nineteen of his 38 hits went for extra bases. His strikeout rate dropped to 8.1 percent and his walk rate soared to 9.7 percent.

We’re left to consider a couple competing factors when prognosticating about Odor’s future value. On the one hand, there is a reason to worry about his power. We’ll get to that in a minute. However, he’s also flashed exceptional growth potential. Odor has been around for a couple seasons already, but he’s still just 21 years old.

In the majors, he has used an aggressive approach. However, his short minor league stint hints at the potential for a plate discipline breakout. Expect his walk rate to slowly drift towards league average. His strikeout rate could also decline.

Odor’s average home run was a hair under 400 feet, and he hit only three that fell into the “just enough” bucket per ESPN’s Home Run Tracker. Good, right? My concern regarding his power relates to his pull-happy approach. He pulled 47 percent of his balls in play (tied 15th highest pull rate with Jay Bruce), and he hit for almost no power to the opposite field. The other guys with higher pull rates are mostly very large power monsters. And Brian Dozier (60% pull rate).

To me, this looks like an exploitable shortcoming to his offensive profile. Looking at his zone profile, it’s clear that he dives over the plate in order to pull away pitches. I’d pound him in off the plate then work the outside corner with soft stuff. He’s particularly weak against up-and-in pitches. Obviously, rival clubs have access to this information and presumably tried to use it. We’ll see if a full offseason leads to a better plan of attack against Odor.

The Rangers’ second baseman remains one of the most exciting players at the position. With his young age, power, and a solid supporting cast, Odor has the potential to grow into a fantasy monster. Steamer projects a 71/18/73/12/.273 fantasy line. I’m a little more skeptical of his speed, but those numbers smell reasonable. It’s important to note that he’s a high variance hitter. He could produce a top 20 season or fall outside of the top 150. I expect him to be a pricey acquisition.