DJ On The Dance Floor

So who had DJ LeMahieu as the fourth most valuable second baseman? According to our mathery, LeMahieu was worth a hair under $19 – more than Brian Dozier, Jason Kipnis, and Robinson Cano. Only Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve, and Ian Kinsler outperformed him.

Entering 2015, LeMahieu was viewed as your standard waiver fodder. His regular job at Coors Field ensured he would be a decent alternative when your starting second baseman hit the disabled list. That’s all, nothing more.

LeMahieu continued to hit for very little power last season. He popped just six home runs, five triples, and 21 doubles over 620 plate appearances. However, he made up for it with 85 runs, 61 RBI, 23 stolen bases, and a .301 average. If the Rockies lineup had been more consistently decent, he could have produced even more runs.

We want to know one thing – is this season repeatable? A .362 BABIP stands out like a sore thumb, but it’s worth noting that he has a .340 career BABIP (1,901 PA). A 26 percent line drive rate helped his numbers this year. We can expect that to regress. Steamer projects a .287 average next season with a .339 BABIP. I agree with those numbers.

There is one very interesting detail about LeMahieu, he’s an opposite field hitter. In fact, he led all qualified hitters with a 39 percent opposite field hit rate. Jean Segura, Adam Eaton, Miguel Cabrera, Billy Burns, and Anthony Gose ranged from 33 to 37 percent oppo contact (one of those guys is not like the others). Perhaps it’s easier to visualize.

LeMahieu spray

If LeMahieu pulls the ball, it’s probably on the ground. And it’s probably not leaving the infield. Theoretically, this should allow opposing teams to shift their outfielders rather aggressively. That in turn should cut into his BABIP. I pulled up a couple late season at bats, and it didn’t look like he was getting shifted.

A big chunk of LeMahieu’s value came on the bases where he had a breakout season. In 2014, he stole 10 bases in 20 attempts. His 23 steals in 2015 came in just 26 attempts. Going back to 2013, he swiped 18 bags in 25 tries. We can be confident that he’ll try to run between 20 and 30 times in a full season. It’s harder to guess how often he’ll succeed. Steamer’s bet is 18 bags in 27 tries.

Run production will depend heavily upon where he bats in the lineup. When Jose Reyes, Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson, Carlos Gonzalez, and Nolan Arenado are healthy, LeMahieu clearly won’t be hitting atop the order. However, the Rockies are widely expected to shop Reyes, Blackmon, and Gonzalez. With his high contact, decent OBP, and speed, LeMahieu is a prototypical second hitter. If he’s ahead of Arenado and Dickerson, a 100 run season is not out of the question.

Let’s be honest, we all expect LeMahieu to backslide in 2016. Despite his productive season, he had a mediocre 89 wRC+ (remember, Coors Field). Nobody is going to draft him as the fourth second baseman. Hell, I’ll be surprised if anyone takes him in the top 10.

Smart owners can look to him as a solid five category fall back option. While the competition invests heavily in Dozier and Rougned Odor, put a couple dollars aside for LeMahieu instead.

 





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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Anonymous
8 years ago

Coors is such a joke.