Author Archive

Flexibility vs. Path of Least Resistance

We usually try to avoid stepping on each others toes here at RotoGraphs. I’m going to risk a little phalanx* squashing to clarify a few of my opinions about something Jeff Z wrote yesterday. Jeff called for fantasy owners to focus on overall production when drafting their rosters. He’s absolutely right, especially in the current post-scarcity meta. Unfortunately, comments on his article – including from me – indicate that we may have distracted ourselves from the actual theme. So let’s reinforce a few important details.

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The Power of Precedents

Yesterday, we had a innocuous little trade in the Screw Cancer ottoneu league between one of the new owners and an existing club. The new guy sent $15 Michael Brantley for a $4 Eduardo Rodriguez. Those are two very cut-able players. However, nobody is going to shred your fantasy credentials if you keep them.

A glance into the trade notes reveals why this little detail rated an article – a $2 loan to the new owner of Brantley, to be distributed after the draft. Fine, right? $13 Brantley for $6 ERod smells fine. You see, there’s just one problem with that – offseason loans are specifically disallowed in ottoneu.

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The Screw Cancer League Needs Your Help

UPDATE: Thank you to everybody who submitted an application. We have filled all four open spots in the league, raising $1,258 for cancer related charities. We’ve also received an additional $25 from readers. If you would like to join our fundraising drive, read more below.

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Years ago, in response to his own battle with the disease, Dave Cameron founded the Screw Cancer League, an ottoneu FGpts league designed to raise money for cancer-related charities. Per Cameron, the league has successfully raised over $30,000 since its inception in 2012. Cameron (and a few others) have bowed out due to new responsibilities. It’s considered gauche (fireable) for a MLB employee to play fantasy baseball.

Today, I’d like to briefly ask for your help in two ways. With our fearless leader gone, it’s time to form Screw Cancer 2.0.

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Matt Olson Hit Two Doubles And Other First Baseman Facts

Matt Olson did many things with his 216 plate appearances in 2017. For example, he hit 24 home runs. Wow. Mr. Olson also hit two doubles. I’m not sure which total is more insane. Let’s do what we do best on internet blogs – convert a tiny factoid into 750 words.

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The One About The Terrible Tweet – Plus Easy Solutions

We had some good-natured fun on twitter yesterday taking shots at CBS Sports’ Chris Towers. He drew the bullseye on his back when he tweeted:

The obvious implication: weekly leagues are good. As somebody who writes columns named The Daily Grind, Streaming Wars, and Streaming Away, this left a sour, chalky taste in my mouth. I can actually feel the grit between my teeth, and I’m out of floss.

I generally view weekly formats as the refuge of Neanderthal football fans who need a fantasy fix during the warm weather months but can’t handle actual fantasy baseball. However, now is probably a good time to leave a friendly, politically correct preface to this post. Sporer warned me (actually, he warned twitter person Yancy Eaton) about high horses so I’ll leave mine at the stable.

Now I’m not sure which idiom to use, I got distracted by googling high horses. How about the one with the folks stroking… things … differently. Yeah, let’s use that one. It’s super cool that there are a billion ways to play fantasy baseball. Some of my favorite formats are unusual. No need to shame somebody if their preferences are different from you own. At least not too much.

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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 1/16/2018

Here’s today’s chat transcript!

2:46
Brad Johnson: Hey folks, I received SO many questions already so I definitely won’t get to all of them. If you asked a bunch, I’m likely to only answer the one that most interests me. Let’s get started.

2:46
Overpaying: How much would you be willing to give up for Shohei Ohtani if you can win this year? 2 Top 10 prospects? 3 Top 20?

2:47
Brad Johnson: That’s so context dependent. In a 20 team dynasty, you can trade one top prospect (Acuna) for something like Paul Goldschmidt and Corey Kluber

2:47
Brad Johnson: In a 10 team format, prospects are super fungible.

2:48
Brad Johnson: That said, Ohtani is just an older top prospect. I wouldn’t pay more than one top 10 guy and some sweetener.

2:48
Biscuit: Seems like Berrios is a good bet to outperform his FG projections, no?

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Reality as a Fantasy Lesson

One of the most basic concepts in any economic system is supply and demand. Even if the nitty gritty details are a bit fuzzy, the general idea is simple – a given widget’s value depends upon how many similar widgets exist and how many people want that widget. If there are more people than widgets – it’s expensive. If there are more widgets than people, it’s cheap. You get it.

Now that I’ve insulted your intelligence by crudely explaining supply and demand, let’s get to today’s real topic. Occasionally, a fantasy owner will decide they want to sell a specific player in a specific time period. In my observance, this usually leads to a suboptimal return. It’s always best to sell when there is peak demand for your asset. If you have to push the deal uphill, chances are you’re coming out on the wrong side of it. Reality has supplied us with a fantastic example.

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Brad Johnson and Paul Sporer Baseball Chat 1/9/18

Paul and I teamed up for our first co-chat. It was a blast. Here is the transcript.

 

1:53

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, we’re going to get started here in a few minutes. Paul and I are trying a little something different – I think it’s been a very long time since RotoGraphs had a two person chat

1:54

Brad Johnson: Just to set some expectations and ground rules, we’re planning on having more back and forth discussion rather than rapid firing through everyone’s questions. Sadly, if you need our help on deciding your 11th keeper, this may not be the chat for you!

1:55

Brad Johnson: Disclaimer aside, I think this is going to be a lot of fun! We’ll begin once Paul checks in.

1:55

Brad Johnson:

Who is winning?

Brad (6.3% | 6 votes)
Paul (15.9% | 15 votes)
Bartolo (77.6% | 73 votes)

Total Votes: 94
1:55

BK: Always Bartolo

1:55

Brad Johnson: No contest, right?

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The Past, Present, and Future of Dee Gordon

Last week, I discovered something unfathomable – the fantasy baseball industry considered Dee Gordon to be a consensus top 50 asset in dynasty leagues. Nobody is as present value-centric as me when it comes to dynasty rankings, and yet I choked on this valuation. We’re talking about a one-dimensional player entering his age 30 campaign. Without some help from iron man Robinson Cano, Gordon is going to lose his useful second base eligibility.

It’s hard to receive between zero and two home runs from a starting outfielder and still contend. Much easier to swallow those numbers from the middle infield spot. And so, amply confused, I asked for your help. Today, I’ll take a closer look at the results of that post, where Gordon may go from here, and why my industry colleagues appear to be so bullish.

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The Plaguey Dodgers Rotation

Entering the 2017 season, we were talking about two game changing trends – the home run surge and the 10-day disabled list. We’ve talked home runs to death. I think we all get it – players continued hitting record quantities of home runs. The 10-day disabled list also had a big impact on our fantasy games, and no team better exploited it than the Los Angeles Dodgers.

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