Matt Olson Hit Two Doubles And Other First Baseman Facts

Matt Olson did many things with his 216 plate appearances in 2017. For example, he hit 24 home runs. Wow. Mr. Olson also hit two doubles. I’m not sure which total is more insane. Let’s do what we do best on internet blogs – convert a tiny factoid into 750 words.

The Olson Twins

I’ll be honest, I don’t really know how to parse the past with the current juiced ball environment. Typically, a good power hitter will post roughly as many home runs and non-home run extra base hits (i.e. doubles and triples). I’ve selected one at random, Brian Dozier.

If you figure that maybe Olson’s power doesn’t really compare to Dozier, you can feel free to repeat this exercise with Giancarlo Stanton, Nelson Cruz, or Aaron Judge. They’re certainly more extreme with their outcomes, but you’ll still find quite a few doubles. In fact, Olson’s minor league performances typically included more doubles than home runs. Last year bucked that trend, supplying hope that perhaps he can be more like Stanton than Dozier.

Looking at historical precedents, we should not expect Olson to maintain his 24 home runs to two doubles pace. Regression is coming. He’s not going to hit 70 home runs and six doubles. That doesn’t mean Olson can’t be a 50 home run threat, but we should definitely temper expectations. Steamer has him hitting 24 doubles, one triple, and 33 home runs in 616 plate appearances. That sounds more… sane.

However, a little back of the envelope math promises plenty of upside. Over a healthy 650 plate appearance campaign, I project about 38 home runs on the strength of a 28 percent strikeout rate, 10 percent walk rate, 47 percent fly ball rate, and 20 percent HR/FB ratio.

The Bird is the… oh never mind

Last spring, Greg Bird dropped bombs before promptly dropping a turd during the month of April. He looked exceptionally exploitable, batting .100/.250/.200 with a 30.6 percent strikeout rate before injuries waylaid him. Upon his return in late August, Bird delivered for the masses – eight home runs and a .253/.316/.575 slash in 98 plate appearances. He trimmed his strikeout rate to 20.4 percent over the span.

Bird was a player I hyped continuously last winter. His mix of power and an over-50 percent fly ball rate promises a ton of production at homer friendly Yankee Stadium. I did overlook one weakness of extreme fly ball hitters. Bird posted normal-looking BABIPs his entire career. Last year, he cratered to a .194 BABIP. Even if you focus on his post-injury numbers, he managed only a .230 BABIP. Science tells us to expect regression – the good kind – but we also know that his profile usually fits this low BABIP approach. I’m projecting somewhere around a .250 BABIP. Sorry batting average.

The good news is that so long as pitchers don’t find a new hole to exploit, he’ll be quite valuable. Let’s just toss a few numbers on the table – 650 plate appearances > 423 balls in play > 213 fly balls > 32 home runs. I’ve assumed a 25 percent strikeout rate, 10 percent walk rate, 50 percent fly ball rate, and 15 percent HR/FB ratio to arrive at a 32 home run projection over a 650 plate appearance season. Steamer has 31 bombs with a 22 percent strikeout rate.

Yonder I Wander

We made a big deal about Yonder Alonso’s 2017 breakout. A shift in launch angle led to a .275/.372/.562 batting line with 20 home runs through the All Star Break. Alas, he regressed hard in the second half, popping just eight home runs in 223 plate appearances to go with a merely solid .254/.354/.420 slash. Who is the real Yonder?

The player himself acknowledged during the season (in articles google is hiding from me) that his mechanics were affected by old bad habits. Presumably, he’ll spend the offseason doing the same things that led to his surprising power surge. He’ll also benefit from a new home stadium. Progressive Field has a reputation as a pitcher’s park, but it’s extremely friendly to left-handed power – not like the Coliseum or Safeco Field.

If you’re worried about reaching for a guy like Olson or Bird, you should be happy to find Alonso in the later rounds or in the sub-$5 bucket. Even if his second half self is the new reality, we’re looking at a hair over 20 home runs with a fairly high OBP. That should keep in him in an important lineup role for a potent Indians offense, leading to plenty of run support. For those of you in daily lineup leagues, it’s also easy to plop him on the bench versus left-handed pitchers.