Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 1/16/2018

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, I received SO many questions already so I definitely won’t get to all of them. If you asked a bunch, I’m likely to only answer the one that most interests me. Let’s get started.

Overpaying: How much would you be willing to give up for Shohei Ohtani if you can win this year? 2 Top 10 prospects? 3 Top 20?

Brad Johnson: That’s so context dependent. In a 20 team dynasty, you can trade one top prospect (Acuna) for something like Paul Goldschmidt and Corey Kluber

Brad Johnson: In a 10 team format, prospects are super fungible.

Brad Johnson: That said, Ohtani is just an older top prospect. I wouldn’t pay more than one top 10 guy and some sweetener.

Biscuit: Seems like Berrios is a good bet to outperform his FG projections, no?

Brad Johnson: I don’t know, they look pretty spot on to me. He certainly has serious upside volatility, but be careful about buying into him as an actualized stud. Expect inconsistency

Tommy: How do you approach extensions in dynasty leagues? Thinking mostly about ‘pre-prime’ guys like Buxton, Bregman, Mazara, etc. Forgo future and keep them cheap to win now or lock them up with slight savings to market value?

Brad Johnson: I don’t actually have any contract leagues so I’m not the best for advice. In general, in probably depends on your league size and team composition. The smaller the league, the more inclined I’d be to avoid long term commitments.

Andy: How much does the trade to HOU affect Cole’s value?  Was desperate for a SP last year and reached for him in round 4 of a 12 team league.  Is this about where his value is now?

Brad Johnson: That’s a bit early for my taste. I don’t think the trade does much if anything to his value. Losing PNC is offset by gaining the Houston offense.

resumeman: Hi Brad, thanks for the Chat. I’ve got several prospects on my Scoresheet keeper league. I can keep them by surrendering draft picks at the *end* of the draft, so around picks 32-35. The guys I’m on the fence about are James Kaprielian, Anthony Alford, Zack Collins, and Blake Rutherford. Do you think any/all are worth surrendering a late pick? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Those are all flier quality prospect. I imagine you’re looking at similar assets in rounds 32-35. Keep the ones you personally like.

Jay: With power being a little more abundant because of the ball or launch angle guys, what tier of 1B would you put Rhys Hoskins and Matt Olson in? If you’re just looking for power/OBP, would it make sense to spend a little less on those two rather than pay big money for 2nd tier of guys like a Rizzo, Smoak, Bellinger (non-plus batting average guys)?

Brad Johnson: Interesting that you list Smoak as a 2nd tier guy and Hoskins as a value. Expect those valuations to flip by the time draft season rolls around.

Brad Johnson: In general, you should be aware of your opportunity costs when making a pick. If there are 7 Hoskins-like options but only one ace pitcher, take the ace (assuming it makes sense with your previous picks). Same goes for SB guys.

Brad Johnson: Since we think power will be super common, you can be a little more cavalier about waiting on it.

Buff: NL only, Altherr or Dahl?

Brad Johnson: For 2018, I’ll take Aaron Altherr. Dahl is probably a better long term bet, but he has to prove health and effectiveness. Altherr just needs to play.

Red Foreman: What are your thoughts on Luis Castillo going forward?

Brad Johnson: I’m a big fan of what he showed us, but I’m not 100% convinced he’s a big GB guy like he showed last season.

Brad Johnson: And if those regress heavily towards league average, you’re looking at an interesting 4.00 ERA pitcher. His current ADP is basically an average of all the possible good outcomes while ignoring all the bad.

Brad Johnson: I’m not going to get any new shares.

Jumanji Laurasia: Which Orioles pitcher are you most bullish on for this season?

Brad Johnson: Orioles pitcher? That’s a rotation I habitually avoid like the plague.

Brad Johnson: Well, there are really only 2 candidates unless you want to talk about Brach, Givens, and O’Day – any of whom are fine, uninspiring closers.

Brad Johnson: Gausman seems to suck in the first half every year. I’ll wait for his owner to quit on him. Bundy isn’t a good fit for the division with his fly ball arsenal. He belongs in AT&T or PNC Park.

Bob the Rebuilder: Which side would you prefer? C Santana $22 or Choo $9, Pomeranz $4

Brad Johnson: Is neither an option? I’ll take $4 Pomeranz as the only keepable asset.

Tyler: Kevin Kiermaier…overall thoughts on him this year?

Brad Johnson: KK is one of those guys whose projection always draws my attention. Someday, he’ll have a career year. As long as he’s cheap, keep buying the easy 5 cat production

Larry Biggersby: Should I be worried about Charlie Morton with the Cole addition and his post-season talk about retirement?

Brad Johnson: Brad Peacock owners should be sad, but Morton should be pretty comfortable.

Rollie’s Mustache: Do you know anything about the projection system Fantrax uses? I’ve noticed it can differ quite significantly from Steamer and ZiPS, and seems more liberal with counting stats.

Brad Johnson: I don’t, but chances are the run production looks different because it’s ignoring most injury scenarios. For fantasy purposes that can make sense.

Anal Hershiser: Do you believe in Calhoun’s projection?  Keep him or Matt Olson as my 10th?

Brad Johnson: In short, no. I’m reminded of the crazy projection for Matt Weiters way back in the day

Brad Johnson: He’s definitely an interesting upside guy, but I’m not even sure he has an Opening Day role

Brad Johnson: His projection says 623 PA which seems crazy – never mind if he can perform at the rates with which he’s credited.

Brad Johnson: Players who hit for power, average, and don’t strikeout barely exist

John M.: Should I trade my $2 Acuna for $51 Mookie in FGpnts Ottoneu?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: $51 Mookie might already be under water in FGpts.

Brad Johnson: If you want to trade Acuna, wait until after the draft to swap him for Mookie, $49, AND something else. Spend the extra $49 on things you need.

Carl: Why do the Mets hate Dom Smith?   Do they really think they are contenders, maybe, and worry that Smith won’t be able to help them?

Brad Johnson: Ooh, this is an easy one!

Brad Johnson: .198/.262/.395

Brad Johnson: Sure, the guy could make hard contact when he ran into one, but he was MASSIVELY overmatched in the majors last season

Brad Johnson: chances are decent he’d grow beyond that by the end of 2018 – maybe 40%?

Brad Johnson: Meanwhile, the Mets are looking at perhaps one more year to contend in the NL East before the division starts feeling crowded. It makes sense for them to secure a higher floor option.

James C: Why does the Super 2 deadline exist?

Brad Johnson: So players can get more money for having their service time jacked around by teams

Brad Johnson: Ironic, I know, since it also causes teams to mess with service time

Brad Johnson: It’s another one of the many rules that greatly favors elite players over workaday types

JD15: Regarding your article yesterday on supply and demand, do you ever go into auctions with keepers that you don’t necessarily want on your team because you know that they will be more valued post auction?

Brad Johnson: Yea, it definitely happens, especially if I’ve inherited a team.

Brad Johnson: Like I’m probably going to keep a $7 Amed Rosario just because I expect somebody to eventually like that valuation.

John M.: I am dealing with a pitching staff of Kershaw, Kluber, CMart, and Kimbrel. Should I deal Kluber and a prospect like K Tucker for someone like Turner? What about Klubot and Tucker for Scherzer? Worth the prospect to upgrade SP?

Brad Johnson: Scherzer and Kluber are identical values

Brad Johnson: So that definitely isn’t worth it. I’d strongly recommend getting Trea Turner for Klub/Tucker

Brad Johnson: But not Justin Turner 🙂

JC: Trying to decide how long to extend Devers and Hoskins in 12 tm dynasty – starting price for both is $1, and inflation is determined by the # of years you extend them (e.g. a 4 year deal would be $5-$9-$13-$17). Would love to get your thoughts – thanks!

Brad Johnson: Depends on what happens at the back end of the deal. If you have to cut a $25 Devers in 6 years, are you on the hook for all of it?

Brad Johnson: My gut says 7 years for Devers and 6 for Hoskins. That’s with very little effort involved.

Brad Johnson: Don’t be afraid of taking some negative values on the back end. That said, there is some merit to being cautious.

Brad Johnson: Since it’s just a 12 team league, you can always find more Devers and Hoskins if you only extend them 4 years and wind up regretting it.

OddBall Herrera: Re: Calhoun and his ridiculous projections.  Positional value aside, would you keep him for the next several years over some of the next up and comers (ex: Senzel, Gleybers)?

Brad Johnson: I think I prefer him to Gleyber but not Senzel. Basically, I prefer most of the bat first guys, but the toolsy utility types usually have more offensive hurdles to solve

James C: How many more years do you expect that Votto can put up first round production?

Brad Johnson: I’ll handicap it at 0.5. First round production is a HIGH bar. He’s been a second to fourth rounder for a big chunk of his career.

Brad Johnson: I think he can remain that kind of effective basically until his next major injury

Brad Johnson: whenever that happens

Pb&Js: Love the site and love your work, but even as a $20/yr member the mobile site is unusable (advertising redirects every other click). Please do something to help!

Brad Johnson: I saw some notes in our slack, there’s a nasty batch of ad redirects going around. It’s not just us.

Nate: Any SP’s or RP’s you think will significantly improve their K-BB%?

Brad Johnson: At least at this point in the offseason, I’ve taken an agnostic approach to pitching breakouts. Some guys are going to break out. I’m less confident than ever that it’s predictable.

Brad Johnson: Once they show improved velocity, an increased slider usage, or bowling ball GB rate, I can tell you who to look at.

Brad Johnson: Until then, it’s just guessing who won’t be the same as in the past

Pb&Js: With Colin Moran’s swing change and (presumable) starting gig, is he now fantasy viable?

Brad Johnson: Sure, in a late flier sense

Brad Johnson: PNC Park is not an ideal setting for him

John M.: How do I get an owner to pay attention and answer back emails and texts? He hasn’t even responded that he would be in for this year and it’s a long term league. His team is far from contention but has many young potential starts like Bellinger, Devers, and Torres so it’s an intriguing team..

Brad Johnson: Tell him you need him to communicate or else you’re replacing him. Wait 5 days. Re-send message. Wait 5 days. Replace him.

EBiggs: Do you think Devers will get 500 AB’s or close to it?

Brad Johnson: I don’t see any reason why he won’t get 650 PA aside from injury. He was good last year against tough opponents. They’ll let him go through some growing pains if necessary.

Davoink Showerhandel: Is there a general minimum amount someone needs to be able to contribute to be in the running for a spot in the Screw Cancer league?

Brad Johnson: No, I don’t think so. We’ll evaluate all candidates based on the merits.

Brad Johnson: Speaking of which, give this a once over if you’re interested in joining a competitive ottoneu league and/or want to donate to cancer causes – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-screw-cancer-league-needs-your-h…

Dummy: Would it be completely insane to move Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon for Trea Turner in dynasty? Turner would replace Murphy as a utility player for me as I have Altuve at 2B and Devers would replace Rendon.

Brad Johnson: No, not crazy. That’s actually a friendly valuation on Turner

John M.: RE is the owner who won’t paticipate. I’m worried I won’t be able to replace him because his team isn’t filled with stars.

Brad Johnson: It’s true that I’m a little spoiled when it comes to finding replacements.

Brad Johnson: Unfortunately, you can’t really force a person to be a good owner

Brad Johnson: Alternatively, you can just leave him in there and keep collecting his dues until he doesn’t pay

Brad Johnson: and just not worry that some players basically aren’t in the pool

Freese Frame: I assume the Pirates are planning on a Moran/Freese platoon at 3rd?

Brad Johnson: My guess is they compete in spring training. Moran probably plays most days once he “wins” the job

Rollie’s Mustache: As more teams creatively use the DL and place more importance on bullpen usage, how might this change our draft approach in leagues that count pitcher wins?

Brad Johnson: I think it puts more value on picking those long outing veterans like Shark or Erv Santana

Brad Johnson: Those used to be pretty boring assets, especially Santana. They still are, but there’s definite value in the win column to be found

Punk in Drublic: Dynasty league, keep up to 10 forever with no escalation cost.  Which side do you prefer.  Altuve or Benintendi and Hoskins?

Brad Johnson: Depends on league depth. If it’s a 12 teamer, grab Altuve. If it’s 20 teams, I’m probably still on the Altuve side, but it’s very very close.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Hi, I’m sure I am not the only one who feels this way, but you guys are really falling behind on the chats, most of the chats are not happening and if they are, they are hours late. What’s going on!?

Brad Johnson: huh? we didn’t do chats while on holiday vacation

Brad Johnson: we’ve done all our chats since then

Brad Johnson: Don’t ask me about what the guys on the main blog are doing. I know Longenhagen was watching some minor leaguers today.

A Random Dude: Advice for an experienced fantasy player who will be starting his first Ottoneu league this year. Draft starts in a month, 5×5, 12 team

Brad Johnson: Plan to draft a lot of $1-3 players. Like 20 of them. Concentrate the rest of your budget into the rest of the roster. During the season, use any unkeepably priced studs to acquire premo-keepers from contenders. Focus on winning every season starting in year 2, prioritize lifetime value in year 1.

tacopocket: Hey Brad.  I have a semi lengthy keeper question for you.  It’s a 5X5 12 man league with $300 at auction.  I have to pick 5 from this group:  Kershaw@62.  JDM@38.  Upton@23. justin turner@23.  Rendon@17.  Wood@11.  story@11.   Elite starting pitching is tough to get so I kind of want to keep Kershaw (he’ll probably go for 60-65) at auction.  I also like uptons price and wood seems like good value at $11.  Is that JDM price too high?  So which 5 would you take?

Brad Johnson: So if Kershaw will cost $60 to $65 in the draft (or even $70), just cut and re-draft. That said, JDM, Rendon, Turner, and Story are the only must-keeps on the list for me. So that does leave a spot for Kershaw if you don’t want to take the risk.

Chris Taylor : Does he put up comparable numbers from last year or is there a slight regression for sophomore season?

Brad Johnson: Regression seems very likely

Jay: Are you buying into Chris Ianetta’s batted ball profile changes making him even more valuable with 81 games at Coors

Brad Johnson: I like him as a C2. I wouldn’t go out of my way to acquire him. Probably isn’t more than a 3-days-a-week guy

Guest: can keep one of Darvis, Archer or Nola each on a 3 year contract. Would like to wait until Darvish signs but have to make a choice be Friday.

Brad Johnson: That is a nightmare decision

Brad Johnson: I’m almost tempted to recommend Nola, you’d be giving up a little in year 1 for (probably) more in year 3.

Brad Johnson: Given how fickle pitchers can be, none of those choices is wrong. Go with the guy you believe in the most and don’t look back

Cheese: Pirate fans should just swallow a cyanide tablet, right?  Or maybe a tide pod.  Which would you recommend?

Brad Johnson: I prescribe a LOT of macaroni and cheese. You bring the cheese.

Brad Johnson: They were already long shots to contend. The funny thing is, I don’t think dumping Cole, Cutch, and probably Harrison really hurts them that much.

Brad Johnson: They have replacements on hand for all of them. The roster has a lower floor, but the ceiling is basically the same

Eric: What are your thoughts on Evan Gattis?  Was surprised to see the Steamer projections so gung ho, but the Astros do say he will be their primary DH.  Are the 550 PAs (most of any C eligible player) and resultant 30 HR too optimistic?

Brad Johnson: Yes, I think so

Erik: What is your preferred draft slot in a 15-team league? What pairing of players would you be targetting with your first two picks?

Brad Johnson: I like starting a team with Trout, Altuve, Goldy, or Turner

Brad Johnson: Oh…

Brad Johnson: I jumped the gun

Brad Johnson: or not, weird bug, the question only just posted in my log

Brad Johnson: Anyway, those are the four five category gods

Brad Johnson: I’d like one of them. If I don’t get one of those spots, I’d prefer a back of the round spot so I can secure an ace and Aaron Judge

Jay: What do you make of Trevor Bauer’s 2nd half stretch with the introduction of his slider? xwOBA suggests some of his good 2nd half was a bit lucky but the swinging strike rate using his slider was much better. Step forward? Mirage?

Brad Johnson: Trevor Bauer has a nasty habit of tinkering his way out of success. He left a cryptic message on twitter about his “slider.” Was hard to interpret, but it sounded like he was saying it’s a cutter with the thumb moved to the side and that he’s already retired the pitch.

Brad Johnson: He MIGHT have been saying that about the cutter though. It was very unclear.

Jay: Over/under 30 HRs from Nick Castellanos this year?

Brad Johnson: Gimme under. We’re getting closer to that shit or get off the pot year for him though

Nate: I’m looking for a good buy low reliever (preferably a closer but would love to add someone with a favorable K-BB% projection). Couple guys on your radar?

Brad Johnson: Addison Reed?

Brad Johnson: Brad Brach?

Brad Johnson: Most of the sitting closers are already quite expensive or have a serious wart.

Erik: What is your favorite league format?

Brad Johnson: Honestly can’t say, it changes every year. That said, I’m very skewed towards DFS and dynasty/deep keeper formats

Brad Johnson: I tend to have light participation in redrafts

Bob cox: How about a Julio Teheran trade to the Yankees? Would Cashman have any interest and could the braves get Frazier and chance Adams in return?

Brad Johnson: Cashman might have some passing interest for like Domingo German. No chance Teheran returns Frazier.

Erik: How do you expect the Phillies’ outfield playing time to shake out? Hoskins is probably a locked-in starter, but all three of Herrera, Altherr, and Williams are intriguing assets, though I’m kind of afraid to target any of them until I know they have a relatively secure role.

Brad Johnson: Herrera is the most locked in of the four

Brad Johnson: Hoskins is likely to spend some time at first base too

Brad Johnson: not much, but at least interleague plus maybe 1 per week

Brad Johnson: I like Altherr more than Williams at present, but the latter may be viewed as having more upside. I imagine they’ll split time until an injury occurs. One of them may even be optioned for a short period, although I doubt it goes that far.

KW: Trade Idea: Ian Happ for Felipe Rivero straight up. Who says no?

Brad Johnson: Both

Jay: Is Jon Gray ready to be a fantasy #2 this year? Or does Coors bump him down some by default?

Brad Johnson: Coors penalty

Brad Johnson: I’d look at him as comparable to Shark

Brad Johnson: Whether you call that a #2 or #3 is up to you

Erik: Who are your top three setup men to target in hopes that they’ll steal the closer job by midseason?

Brad Johnson: I’ve done this exercise a couple times. It’s funny, but there aren’t any good targets yet. Keep an eye on the Marlins, White Sox, Tigers, and Angels I suppose.

Brad Johnson: Jeurys Familia doesn’t have much margin for error with A.J. Ramos around

Nick: Looking for an upgrade at SP or RP. Looking to part with Domingo Santana in a keep forever Dynasty League. What’s a reasonable return for Santana if I’m looking to improve my pitching depth?

Brad Johnson: Aaron Sanchez?

Hooha: do you have any favorite targets between pick 50 and 100 to shore up power if you go speed / pitching early?

Brad Johnson: Khris Davis, Joey Gallo? Those seem obvious and aren’t always outside of the top 50

Jimmy Nelson: Am I ahead of schedule, and are you expecting 2017 – level performance when I do return?

Brad Johnson: So Nelson himself announced he was ahead of schedule. That’s good news, but we should also remember that athletes are notoriously overaggressive when rehabbing. I’d prefer for the team to tell him to take it easy.

Brad Johnson: Michael Brantley was ahead of schedule

Brad Johnson: Then he never really returned

Johan: As someone whose been in 1-4 keeper fantasy leagues the past 13 years but has never been in a redraft league am I missing out? or am i spending my time on the more fun side of the fantasy baseball fence?

Brad Johnson: Keepers are more fun

lft: looking for a team… john M hit me up at methodpoke1 AT gmail.com

Brad Johnson: Not sure you want to publish your email like that, so I’m going to edit it a tad.

Brad Johnson: My dog says it’s time to go walkabout

Brad Johnson: A couple more questions

Minty: In a keeper league, is this the time to explore a Kluber trade? He’s a stud, but also a pitcher and will be 32

Brad Johnson: I’d definitely look at what’s out there.

John W.: 16tm with OBP instead of AVG. Can only keep two minor guys: Calhoun, Brinson, C.Arroyo, Fowler, McMahon. Thinking of keeping Calhou/McMahon and trading Brinson for a pick upgrade – or am I overvaluing McMahon?

Brad Johnson: I’m struggling with McMahon a bit. It’s hard to figure out how much he’ll play. Definitely seems interesting though. I was leaning the same pair initially.

DHestiny: Just saw another “NL DH is inevitable” article on cbssports. Why does anyone care when pitchers will almost never bat more than twice?

Brad Johnson: I don’t know. It annoys me.

Michelle: My NL only switched this year to OBP and Saves+Holds. How should this change my auction strategy?

Brad Johnson: I mean, it’s all basically the same. You just need to avoid AVG based offensive ranks. You can worry a little less about rushing to secure relievers merely for their saves/holds. Instead focus on getting the most talented arms regardless of role.

Pirate Steve: Is Rodney really going to close over Reed? What the crap?

Brad Johnson: Nah, don’t believe that noise until it’s March 25

Minty: Trade Rizzo or Springer for CMart if I have Bryant/Arenado/Correa/Betts/Belly/Hoskins? OBP keeper

Brad Johnson: Should be able to get CMart+, but sure.

Brad Johnson: Congrats on having all of the best players.

Brad Johnson: Thanks for chatting today folks! Sorry if I didn’t get to your question, I received way too many.